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COE Bidding – 2nd Round of March 2019


Carbon82
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While I understand general sentiment is coe is on up, but is so quiet here

Maybe the calm before the storm ?
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While I understand general sentiment is coe is on up, but is so quiet here

this place only noisy when COE is coming down and all the bargain hunters come here looking to rant and release their anxiety. 

 

uptrend for steady buyers who pay and don't think about it anymore. 

Edited by Chongster
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someone from somewhere will standby to bid, to make sure its high enuff. Otherwise the gov's revenue is impacted.

 

What is the probabilty of coe price dropping to $1 today for cat A and B?

 

:D  [lipsrsealed]  :D

 

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Cat A going to go up. Feb de-registration figures out, quite low.

 

Jan dereg 3438

Feb dereg 2570

Mar dereg lets say 3400

 

May-Jul Cat A quota per round = (3438 + 2570 + 3400) à 0.9 ÷ 6 = ~1400. I think more likely 13xx. Quite a significant drop. Apr Cars at Expo is last chance

My two cents.

 

Not necessarily quota low means coe up. Cos less quota = less people scrapping cars = less people buying new cars = less demand for new coe.

 

The reason why last time when quota is down the premiums shot up is because the reduction in quota was a claw back due to years of high coe quotas so number of people scrapping the cars are much more than the quota available.

 

The reason why coe did not crash when quota went up last two years is cos of new players with big pockets (uber).

 

So now I don't foresee coe shooting up. Creeping up maybe but not shooting up. Unless there is a huge pool of people waiting to buy cars that have not bought them.

 

From observations car fairs make not much a difference in coe because a person buying in a car fair is not going to buy in the showroom. So nett number of buyers should be same unless there are people who are waiting for car fairs just to buy cars.

 

A more accurate picture would be a typical number of cars sold in an average month vs a typical number of cars sold in a month with a car fair. Cos I might sell 50 cars a week or 200 a month or 10 cars a week + 160 cars during one car fair. It will look like car fair boosts demand but actually the sales is the same.

 

Two cents

never say never.

I think it's impossible. Minimum is $2.00 if number of bids < quota.
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