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COE Bidding – 1st Round of April 2019


Carbon82
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Yes , there will be a drastic drop in COE Quota. Many are rushing to renew COE now.

 

But I don't think COE will soar to above $100K. Probably along the lines of $80K to $90K.

 

No thanks to Private Hire.... Again.

The next cycle for COE to drop to low levels would be 2028-2029.

There were quite a fair bit of 5 year renewals in 2015/2016, so these will be recycled into the COE quota pool in 2020/2021.  

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There were quite a fair bit of 5 year renewals in 2015/2016, so these will be recycled into the COE quota pool in 2020/2021.

Not alot lah. Majority of the quota still from main stream parf cars.

I read that majority of PHV drivers rather pay abit more to rent brand new cars, especially hybrid model. If that is the case, what will happen to the aging fleet of vehicles? I suppose they will be exported or dereg right? So quota should not shrink too much i think.

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There were quite a fair bit of 5 year renewals in 2015/2016, so these will be recycled into the COE quota pool in 2020/2021.  

 

A simplistic estimate of COE quota assuming the 10-year COE cars remain until end of 10 years:

 

Renewed 5-year Cat A COE:

 

2015 - 5,881

2016 - 15,181

2017 - 13,643

2018 - 14,781

2019 - 15,000 estimate

 

Historical 10-year Cat A COE Quota:

2010 - 18,733

2011 - 13,026

2012 - 12,909

2013 - 8,534

2014 - 12,230

 

Projected Cat A COE Quota per Tender (renewed 5-year plus 10-year expired COEs / 24):

2020 - 1,025

2021 - 1,175

2022 - 1,106

2023 - 971

2024 - 1,134

 

It is more likely that the cars purchased in 2011-2014 have been scrapped in 2017-2019 as owners capitalise on low COE to purchase a new car with a fresh 10-year COE.  Hence, Cat A 2020-2024 quota is likely to be a lot lesser (20-30%) than the projection above i.e. < 800 per tender.  The corollary is 2027-2029 we will see an avalanche of COE quota.

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Turbocharged

My take is this – capitalize on this drastic COE rise to renew 10 years COE for your car now, and make a sweet profit when you sell it when COE prices double that of now in a matter of time.

 

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Then what? Use the money to buy the next car at higher COE? Isn't it back to square one?

 

 

My take is this – capitalize on this drastic COE rise to renew 10 years COE for your car now, and make a sweet profit when you sell it when COE prices double that of now in a matter of time.

 

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Not alot lah. Majority of the quota still from main stream parf cars.

I read that majority of PHV drivers rather pay abit more to rent brand new cars, especially hybrid model. If that is the case, what will happen to the aging fleet of vehicles? I suppose they will be exported or dereg right? So quota should not shrink too much i think.

That is the part that puzzles me.

If new drivers prefer hybrid /electric car. Why Gojek buy 1000 units of Opel? I only see diesel Opel inside sgcarmart.com

Unless my eyes cross, if anyone can share the hybrid / electric Opel cars available in SG. Thanks

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Unless those with 2nd car or decided to give up driving. I just bought a second car last dec, hoping to sell when it is the right time:)

Then what? Use the money to buy the next car at higher COE? Isn't it back to square one?

 

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Haha..I see car as a transport tool, not investment tool. If I need to buy 2nd car, it is definitely not bcos I hope to sell it in future for a profit.

 

Unless those with 2nd car or decided to give up driving. I just bought a second car last dec, hoping to sell when it is the right time:)

 

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Turbocharged

Suzuki prices up $5k. Very fast and furious.

Will there still be crowd this weekend?

 

Yes, panic buyers who scare COE will shoot up to 60-80k. 

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Go book a car this weekend with gauranteed coe. Next weekend got cars@expo, then followed by announcement of quota cut, before the next bidding. COE will shoot up another 5k easily next bidding.

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Turbocharged

Then what? Use the money to buy the next car at higher COE? Isn't it back to square one?

 

Good opportunity to use the profit to downgrade to a  smaller but newer car

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Supersonic

LOL!!! Ghost town this weekend in car belts leng kee Ubi....the sharp spike is disaster....4896!!!! Cat A $29k to 33k is damn a lot!!!!

Cars@Expo next week. Confirm lowest turnout ever...lol
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