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COE Bidding – 1st Round of May 2019

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Interesting article from straits time, advising now it’s not best time to change car

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Today’s S.T. news reported that private hire Operators may get licenses to offer street hailing services for their fleets of cars. This sort of news will add fuel to fire and give PHV Operators and their rental companies more incentive and urgency to secure more COEs with plans to expand their fleets ahead of such new enhanced services.

 

Can’t beat them, join them. That’s the mantra in our competitive ride sharing/hailing services and taxis. See other article in today’s S.T. news. Hence seems like competition for COEs in every bidding exercise will be elevated...

 

Looks like buyers will have to accept COE prices at new normal price levels due to supply and demand dynamics at play...

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/private-hire-operators-may-get-licence-to-offer-street-hail-services

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/comfort-taxis-set-to-offer-dynamic-pricing-alongside-metered-fares

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Today’s S.T. news reported that private hire Operators may get licenses to offer street hailing services for their fleets of cars. This sort of news will add fuel to fire and give PHV Operators and their rental companies more incentive and urgency to secure more COEs with plans to expand their fleets ahead of such new enhanced services.

 

Can’t beat them, join them. That’s the mantra in our competitive ride sharing/hailing services and taxis. See other article in today’s S.T. news. Hence seems like competition for COEs in every bidding exercise will be elevated...

 

Looks like buyers will have to accept COE prices at new normal price levels due to supply and demand dynamics at play...

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/private-hire-operators-may-get-licence-to-offer-street-hail-services

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/comfort-taxis-set-to-offer-dynamic-pricing-alongside-metered-fares

 

May? What are the chances LTA will approve it. 

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Anything that earns them money, they will approve it. 

May? What are the chances LTA will approve it. 

 

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Meanwhile, received alert from SGCM of Insignias price drop, 10 - 12k (depending on model)

 

Too many Gojek Insignias on the road?

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Meanwhile, received alert from SGCM of Insignias price drop, 10 - 12k (depending on model)

 

Too many Gojek Insignias on the road?

Wow, according to SGCM, the basic cost of insignia diesel is $111k and selling price is $120k...

 

Guess opel feels that COE will not rise

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Today’s S.T. news reported that private hire Operators may get licenses to offer street hailing services for their fleets of cars. This sort of news will add fuel to fire and give PHV Operators and their rental companies more incentive and urgency to secure more COEs with plans to expand their fleets ahead of such new enhanced services.

 

Can’t beat them, join them. That’s the mantra in our competitive ride sharing/hailing services and taxis. See other article in today’s S.T. news. Hence seems like competition for COEs in every bidding exercise will be elevated...

 

Looks like buyers will have to accept COE prices at new normal price levels due to supply and demand dynamics at play...

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/private-hire-operators-may-get-licence-to-offer-street-hail-services

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/comfort-taxis-set-to-offer-dynamic-pricing-alongside-metered-fares

 

This will also mean that the they will be treated like taxis in all ways including restricting them to bidding for COEs from the taxi pool only.

So once the announcement takes place, Cat A & B prices will start dropping again.

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COEs are a finite resource. Whoever control a finite resource will become monopoly and get great returns.

 

The big corporations could (theoretically) be on their way to create this monopoly scenario:-  they just take up all COEs available (or even just keep the excess cars in car park). Hence, all rest of people fail to get COEs and is forced to use their service or rent car from them. With fee not regulated, they could just charge all they want to cover back all the cost.

 

The only way is PHV and taxi should be regulated to optimize the use of all vehicles. Example, their fleet must have average minimum 20 hours on the road or minimum 20 trips per day. If not met, they have to shrink their fleet size.

 

You think our government not knowing the above? Let us see how it goes.

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This Christopher didn't take into consideration the collapse in de-registration for the first 4 months of this year. There were lots of renewals of COE in april alone. All these will cause a big hit to the upcoming supply of COEs as it's a zero sum game. No de-registrations = no new COEs as growth rate will be kept at 0%.

 

Even if demand remains constant in the coming months, the huge drop in COE supply will cause the premiums to further advance upwards. It's  basic demand/supply economics 101.

Christopher may have already known about the plans / report in today's ST of allowing PHVs to pick up passengers from the street which implies PHVs will no longer be allowed to bid for Cat A and B COEs as they have to be treated equally as taxis.

 

Thus the rush by PHV operators to grab as many cheap Cat A and B cars before the new rules kick in. 

 

Once the new rules kick in, Cat A and B will be back to the 20K / 30k + region.

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Christopher may have already known about the plans / report in today's ST of allowing PHVs to pick up passengers from the street which implies PHVs will no longer be allowed to bid for Cat A and B COEs as they have to be treated equally as taxis.

 

Thus the rush by PHV operators to grab as many cheap Cat A and B cars before the new rules kick in. 

 

Once the new rules kick in, Cat A and B will be back to the 20K / 30k + region.

 

Even as pseudo-taxis, the PHV companies will still utilise the COE quota (similar to taxis).

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/owning-a-vehicle/costs-of-owning-a-vehicle/tax-structure-for-taxis.html

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Christopher may have already known about the plans / report in today's ST of allowing PHVs to pick up passengers from the street which implies PHVs will no longer be allowed to bid for Cat A and B COEs as they have to be treated equally as taxis.

 

Thus the rush by PHV operators to grab as many cheap Cat A and B cars before the new rules kick in. 

 

Once the new rules kick in, Cat A and B will be back to the 20K / 30k + region.

 

when the rules rules kick in, the quota numbers will probably be half of what it is today. fat hope that it will maintain at 20-30k

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Even as pseudo-taxis, the PHV companies will still utilise the COE quota (similar to taxis).

 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/owning-a-vehicle/costs-of-owning-a-vehicle/tax-structure-for-taxis.html

If that’s the case, the PHV will only utilize Cat A COE according to the COE requirements for taxi.

 

Which will cause the demand for Cat B to drop :D

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Cat. A: $35K

Cat. B: $50K

 

Guessing time!

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Cat. A: $35K

Cat. B: $50K

 

Guessing time!

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Cat A has the greatest absolute quota reduction.  Hence, the pressure is on Cat A to rise to around $38k.  Cat B is likely to go u to $50k to catch up with Cat E.

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Cat A: 38K

Cat B: 53k

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