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COE Bidding – 1st Round of June 2019

Carbon82

By Carbon82,
in General Car Discussion

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alex976

alex976

5th Gear

If COE renewal trend will continue to rise, LTA will come out with new VES scheme on COE cars on the name of environment protection ;)

 

Last time govt intro ETS to psycho biz owners to change their diesel powered vehicles.

 

Sadly no ETS for private car owner (wait long long also wont have)

 

I predict COE will hover around current price cos mkt too weak le. Showroom no people but there are alot of people renewing COE. renew which category? 5 or 10 years? that the qtn. renew COE affect the next tranche of COE not the current tranche

 

CAT A (27000-30000)

CAT B (37000-40000)

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Vinceng

Vinceng

Turbocharged
(edited)

Cat A will rebound to $30k but will drop back to $27K or less at the June 2nd bidding.

 

This is provided the private hire firms don't enter the scene.

Edited by Vinceng
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blmg

blmg

2nd Gear

 

For the 1st 3 months of the year, Cat A (5 year renewal plus 10 year renewal) is 9,929, which is higher than a typical 3-month Cat A quota of around 9,000.  The respective figures for Cat B is 7,499 and 7,000.  It means that the COE quota for Cat A and Cat B in the next few quarters will plunge sharply.

 

 

 

 

I think the figure for COE revalidation for April and May 2019 will be even higher.  LTA's monthly figures is still showing only March 2019.

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yishunite

yishunite

Turbocharged

It makes sense because the dealers now charge far higher margins than 10 yrs ago... so the difference renewing COE makes is huge... depre is much lower than a new car even taking account of repair costs

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Kodiaqer

Kodiaqer

4th Gear

A car owner who revalidate his COE takes one COE from supply but also remove demand for one. I am assuming they are not buying a 2nd car.

So is there more demand for new cars pulling up COE prices or less COE supply pushing COE prices higher?

 

solid economics analysis!

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Vinceng

Vinceng

Turbocharged

I think cat A will hover around 30-32k for the rest of the year and CatB 42-45k.

Unlikely for Cat A to remain beyond $30K.

 

How are the distributors who secured bookings based on the last round COE at $27K going to secure COE at such high price and close deals?

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Jwee85

Jwee85

5th Gear

My view is that more people renew their old car COE is mostly because they feel 'poor' and 'unable' to afford a new car.

The general feeling is that these car owners are able to afford new cars ten years ago, but are now somehow financially not able to.

 

Might be a reflection of more people falling in a economic situation where they cannot afford luxuries like before.

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awhtc

awhtc

6th Gear

My view is that more people renew their old car COE is mostly because they feel 'poor' and 'unable' to afford a new car.

The general feeling is that these car owners are able to afford new cars ten years ago, but are now somehow financially not able to.

 

Might be a reflection of more people falling in a economic situation where they cannot afford luxuries like before.

Some renew to keep as 2nd car.

 

The bidding on 2nd day looks like is back to normal.

 

A rebound is likely.

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Vinceng

Vinceng

Turbocharged

What's a big sized cat A car?

 

Similar to accord size?

Can't think of any. But if there is, will be very underpowered, for an Accord sized car to be within 130bhp.
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Privacy

Privacy

5th Gear

My view is that more people renew their old car COE is mostly because they feel 'poor' and 'unable' to afford a new car.

The general feeling is that these car owners are able to afford new cars ten years ago, but are now somehow financially not able to.

 

Might be a reflection of more people falling in a economic situation where they cannot afford luxuries like before.

MOT data shows our gdp still growing.. unemployment still extremely low by any developed countries standard... dont think coe will drop much from 40 50k... 30k is a low which i bit the bullet and hit a cat B car.
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alex976

alex976

5th Gear

Unlikely for Cat A to remain beyond $30K.

 

How are the distributors who secured bookings based on the last round COE at $27K going to secure COE at such high price and close deals?

 

Dun wry they bloody smart.

 

COE drop 9k, most of the ADs drop 4k and left 5k for buffer. So if CAT A go above 30k they wont die.

 

ADs are not stupid also, they buffer nice nice de. 

 

If CAT A go to 30k, they will just say "COE increase but prices stay the same!!! Hurry before they rise again".

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