COE Bidding – 2nd Round of June 2019

[blmg]

The next quarter quota likely to be lower as de-registration in May continues to drop.

 

 

Leading indicator of the COE supply is the revalidation of COEs which continues to go higher in April.  I think May will also be the same as April.

 

[yishunite]

What does it mean? Unused bidder...

Some big ADs place lots of bids at the same price... and with COE so weak they decided not to secure the COE and wait for next round... this is interesting cos if bids < quota then COE = $1. Which means... theres no confidence in filling quota next round so this may be a sign that sales are weak and they need price to come down to get more ppl to showroom

[Tvios]

Some big ADs place lots of bids at the same price... and with COE so weak they decided not to secure the COE and wait for next round... this is interesting cos if bids < quota then COE = $1. Which means... theres no confidence in filling quota next round so this may be a sign that sales are weak and they need price to come down to get more ppl to showroom

This is so true. With this weakness, next bidding may be $1. Must standby and bid for myself if it really happens

[13177]

All scare buy car due to ERP 2.0 rolling out. $$$

Economy and the new ERP are the two uncertain things which might deter some people from buying?!

[awhtc]

COE prices are much weaker than my expectation.

 

This affirms that the economy is really not doing well now and many people are holding back their car purchase.

[Lotr]

The fall in cat b and e for 3 rounds really shows that demand is weak.  

 

No matter what the reporters, experts and insiders say, the COE prices speaks for itself.

 

Dealers would have to cut prices but buyers will wait for the price to drop further before getting in.  30k coming?   

[Ct3833]

Some big ADs place lots of bids at the same price... and with COE so weak they decided not to secure the COE and wait for next round... this is interesting cos if bids < quota then COE = $1. Which means... theres no confidence in filling quota next round so this may be a sign that sales are weak and they need price to come down to get more ppl to showroom

This is the best music to our ear so far, hope everyone will materialise their new car dream cheap cheap

[Ct3833]

The next quarter quota likely to be lower as de-registration in May continues to drop.

 

Degistration May 2019.PNG

 

Leading indicator of the COE supply is the revalidation of COEs which continues to go higher in April. I think May will also be the same as April.

 

revalidation april 2019.PNG

But some bros have rightly pointed out that those who renewed their COE will not go book a new car, resulting in less demand for new car.

By the way if you go add up the revalidatioon of cat A and cat B 5 years and 10 years respectively, the sum of 4 months are more than or close to the 12 months total of 2018 in their respective groups.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Ct3833

[Mkl22]

But some bros have rightly pointed out that those who renewed their COE will not go book a new car, resulting in less demand for new car.

By the way if you go add up the revalidatioon of cat A and cat B 5 years and 10 years respectively, the sum of 4 months are more than or close to the 12 months total of 2018 in their respective groups.

And since some revalidate early. It will reduce the number of dereg car up to 1year from now. Thus shrinking pool of quota released in 2009 and 2010 vs the prior years, will shrink further as maybe only 70% gets recycled to new quotas now.

 

So the drop in coe quota is a sure thing, the only unknown is if demand will drop by the same amount or more to cause prices to slide.

Population number vs 10years ago is higher. So it will be unrealistic to have coe drop to the teens in the 2006-2008 era. But who knows.

[Sng28]

The next quarter quota likely to be lower as de-registration in May continues to drop.

 

Degistration May 2019.PNG

 

Leading indicator of the COE supply is the revalidation of COEs which continues to go higher in April.  I think May will also be the same as April.

 

revalidation april 2019.PNG

the number of ppl renewing for 10 yrs is sky high!! omg unbelievable ..that's a big number compared to those renewing for 5 yrs!

 

It is really alot leh!

[Sng28]

honestly..doesn't seem that ppl are giving up driving...just appears they are more prudent with their money and are going for coe renewals rather than a new car....looking at the re-validations of COE...

 

so it will be a chicken and egg story on upcoming coe quota ...as for car price..it really depends liao...

[Mann123]

the number of ppl renewing for 10 yrs is sky high!! omg unbelievable ..that's a big number compared to those renewing for 5 yrs!

 

It is really alot leh!

 

CAT B cars parf value high specially for conti cars so they want to use maximum of parf value and go for 10 year 

[Sng28]

CAT B cars parf value high specially for conti cars so they want to use maximum of parf value and go for 10 year 

hmm wont you want take that high paper value and go for another ride? since car prices not that 'high' now

[Mann123]

honestly..doesn't seem that ppl are giving up driving...just appears they are more prudent with their money and are going for coe renewals rather than a new car....looking at the re-validations of COE...

 

so it will be a chicken and egg story on upcoming coe quota ...as for car price..it really depends liao...

 

 

Maybe more and more people start looking at cars just as transport and doesn't matter new or not, no need to show off just drive for practical purpose and value their hard earned $$. 

 

 

Sooner or later LTA will come up with new rules or new taxes for coe renewal as they cant bear the loss for big time haha. Hope for best, this is what we can do max. Love to see $2 coe in my life again 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Mann123

[Mann123]

hmm wont you want take that high paper value and go for another ride? since car prices not that 'high' now

Personally i would like to go for new if have high parf/paper value car. i am even planning to change my 2 year old high coe car haha. Now waiting for more cheaper coe or 5 year mark whichever come earlier to minimize loss.

 

But data speaks more people renewing for CAT B (high parf) cars for 10 years

[andrewyewkc]

Super duper weak.

 

199 unused bidders all bidded at same price of $$26,998??

 

Meaning next few rounds will be exciting.

 

The moral of the story is that one must bid $26,999 instead of $26,998?

[Jwee85]

I want to believe that those who validated their COE are more likely to influence the COE downtrend to accelerate.

 

For each revalidation, means one less car buyer, means one less bid for the COE.

 

Cant explain the psychology exactly, but AD will 'see' lesser car buyers booking new cars, thus thinking the 'demand' is weak. Therefore more willing to reduce price and give better deal.

 

Those 2000++ revalidated their COE means there will be less 2000++ new carbuyer visiting showrooms and signing contracts.

Imaging these 2000++ spread over 10 ADs, meaning each AD will be having 200 LESSER contracts in June, and subsequent months going forward.

 

I want to believe that this will cause panic among the ADs as they have projected their yearly stocks base on the COE quota and past sales.

If they cannot sell their 2019 stocks, surely a price war will soon appear in the local car market.

 

So we must thank those who revalidate their COEs for reducing the apparent demand on the biddings.

 

So enjoy low-balling the SE these few months.

 

But having said that, if the COE really drops to low levels. Then those who revalidated and those with high-COE paper value will cheong into the market, creating a sudden front loaded demand for COEs.

 

This up and down demand cycle fluctuations will keep going.

 

But this weekends is a good time to ask for super duper low price on your dream car.

[car50]

Are u sure Bro it is so easy to go AD to lowball?

Maybe better luck with used cars

 

Lower coe is great news but new car prices usually do not drop proportionate to drop in coe because of VES, OMV etc

When coe was around 60k, altis standard was at 99-100k, with coe at 26k now, its still around 90k

C180 was 183-185k when coe 60k, with current coe, price around 190k  

 

Wonder if coe is ever $2 again, what will be the new car prices 

 

 

I want to believe that those who validated their COE are more likely to influence the COE downtrend to accelerate.

 

For each revalidation, means one less car buyer, means one less bid for the COE.

 

Cant explain the psychology exactly, but AD will 'see' lesser car buyers booking new cars, thus thinking the 'demand' is weak. Therefore more willing to reduce price and give better deal.

 

Those 2000++ revalidated their COE means there will be less 2000++ new carbuyer visiting showrooms and signing contracts.

Imaging these 2000++ spread over 10 ADs, meaning each AD will be having 200 LESSER contracts in June, and subsequent months going forward.

 

I want to believe that this will cause panic among the ADs as they have projected their yearly stocks base on the COE quota and past sales.

If they cannot sell their 2019 stocks, surely a price war will soon appear in the local car market.

 

So we must thank those who revalidate their COEs for reducing the apparent demand on the biddings.

 

So enjoy low-balling the SE these few months.

 

But having said that, if the COE really drops to low levels. Then those who revalidated and those with high-COE paper value will cheong into the market, creating a sudden front loaded demand for COEs.

 

This up and down demand cycle fluctuations will keep going.

 

But this weekends is a good time to ask for super duper low price on your dream car.