Singapore Private Property prices still up or down? Part III

[Mrmilktooth]

Please go for ECs if one chooses the HDB path.

 

Just look at the chart below for All HDBs (aged 5-10) vs All ECs (aged 5-10). They are all based on TOP between 2009-2014

 

The BTOs appreciation are not faring that well after their MOP since 2013

 

This data is an average for all unit types and all districts

 

hdbvsEC.jpg

This is why the BTO for mature estates are like a lottery ticket at $20.....

 

 

Be lucky and sure win $200-400K gain depending on flat size... lol

[Acemundo]

Please go for ECs if one chooses the HDB path. 

 

Just look at the chart below for All HDBs (aged 5-10) vs All ECs (aged 5-10). They are all  based on TOP between 2009-2014

 

The BTOs appreciation are not faring that well after their MOP since 2013

 

This data is an average for all unit types and all districts

 

hdbvsEC.jpg

 

i remember the bishan loft ec......entry price cheap cheap

 

so happened when the 5 years period is up, i was also looking for a condo for self stay and my mind immediately think of taking a look at bishan loft...was so disappointed to learnt that it appreciated pretty much up from launch price.

[Sdf4786k]

That’s true! Heard from another MCF bro that the Telok Blangah 4rm flats going for $250k+ more than original price but this partly cos keys ready n there’s been a lapse of 3-4yrs at least but even then it’s astonishing n goes to confirm that young couples shld always apply BTO for first flat esp if their incomes are within the limit. Can always buy condo later if that is the aspiration even though condo may also have gone up but % wise BTO upside shld be greater?

 

that's only true till someone decide that let you earn might as well i earn and raises certain ceiling again.

 

At this point in time, they still have not think thru on carpark as a source of revenue unlike HK and JP.

 

Even Germany and UK has started long way back.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Sdf4786k

[Mercs]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/property-buyers-targeted-by-scammers-posing-as-their-lawyers-law-society

Property buyers targeted by scammers posing as their lawyers: Law Society

[Mercs]

https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/previews-luxury-condo-jervois-priv%C3%A9-tanglin-open-25-may

Previews for luxury condo Jervois Privé at Tanglin to open on 25 May

 

The 45-unit condominium is priced during its preview phase from $1.62m for one-bedroom apartments, which comprise 5 units from 549 sqft, $2.01m for two-bedroom apartments from 689 sqft, and $3.18m for its three-bedroom apartments from 1,109 sqft.. Early bird prices will start from $2,816 psf

[Mercs]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/government-can%E2%80%99t-adopt-%E2%80%98hands-%E2%80%99-approach-managing-property-market-lawrence-wong

Government can’t adopt ‘hands-off’ approach to managing property market: Lawrence Wong

 

"Our aim is not to bring prices down, but to steady the cycle and to stabilise the market. [We want] to have a steady and sustained property market, moving broadly in line with income growth,” he reiterates. “This is a shift from the past where we tended to take a more laissez-faire approach [to the property market].”

 

The property market has shown that left to itself, it tends to go through large price swings. This harms genuine homebuyers and if corrective actions are not taken to prevent a bubble forming, the costs would eventually be larger and more painful for everyone, the minister says.

 

"Investors have to consider what it means to buy property and the implications for property values,” says Wong. He warns that people’s fear of missing out may lead them to be caught up in the price cycle.

 

The interplay between markets and state intervention is always at work in the real estate industry, especially in ensuring the affordability of housing. “We cannot just continue with the status quo and assume that property prices will always appreciate, regardless of fundamentals,”

[Mercs]

Please go for ECs if one chooses the HDB path.

 

Just look at the chart below for All HDBs (aged 5-10) vs All ECs (aged 5-10). They are all based on TOP between 2009-2014

 

The BTOs appreciation are not faring that well after their MOP since 2013

 

This data is an average for all unit types and all districts

 

As mentioned earlier, HDB for own stay PTE investment so different ballgame altogether.

If looking purely based on capital apprecation, many factors to consider.

 

Example-

BTO in a good matured estate 500-700k, 50% upside to sell 750k-1mil potentially achievable future.

EC current near 1k psf, can sell 1.5k psf future for around same upside?

 

Then there's the cost factor-

BTO- lower cost, less bank loan equal less interest pay up full faster against ... EC- higher cost, more debt etc.

 

Both got pro and con, diff strokes diff folks. But generally, for a young couple just starting out, I would say BTO still the way to go, can look into PTE as investment in future.

[Icedbs]

Example-

BTO in a good matured estate 500-700k, 50% upside to sell 750k-1mil potentially achievable future.

 

 

The thing is, I am not too sure about the above going forward for BTOs

 

I actually have a resale chart for D3 (very mature HDB district), but I thought no point getting too technical in a forum. 

 

Ultimately,  I think if one is buying BTOs for reasons like less financing commitment, near parents, new flat, etc..that's certainly ok. But best not to bet on the capital appreciation part by assuming one can get the same capital gain as the BTOs of the past decade. The resale avg $psf data since 2013 has been on a decline,  where as the capital gain between 2002-2013 has been on a steep increase. They are in a different market cycle and buyers of new BTOs have to understand that.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Icedbs

[Rskc]

https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/previews-luxury-condo-jervois-priv%C3%A9-tanglin-open-25-may

Previews for luxury condo Jervois Privé at Tanglin to open on 25 May

 

 

Many small developments coming up at Jervois, mostly around $2800 psf to $3000 psf fhold

[Showster]

The thing is, I am not too sure about the above going forward for BTOs

 

I actually have a resale chart for D3 (very mature HDB district), but I thought no point getting too technical in a forum.

 

Ultimately, I think if one is buying BTOs for reasons like less financing commitment, near parents, new flat, etc..that's certainly ok. But best not to bet on the capital appreciation part by assuming one can get the same capital gain as the BTOs of the past decade. The resale avg $psf data since 2013 has been on a decline, where as the capital gain between 2002-2013 has been on a steep increase. They are in a different market cycle and buyers of new BTOs have to understand that.

Other than those who hope they had gotten a better location or a better spec unit, who has really regretted a property purchase in the last 10 years? Very few and far in between if I may say so.

[therock]

Many small developments coming up at Jervois, mostly around $2800 psf to $3000 psf fhold ð

 

Sellable??ð¤

Love to see what are the results

Very high price but with those crazy prices in far more ulu places.. who knows

[Icedbs]

Other than those who hope they had gotten a better location or a better spec unit, who has really regretted a property purchase in the last 10 years? Very few and far in between if I may say so.

 

For private property, I don't think capital appreciation is an issue provided they buy at the right value regardless whether they buy now or 10 years ago.

 

My concern is only with new BTOs or resale HDBs that were bought after 2013.

 

 I was looking through D3 (very mature HDB estate) for all HDBs that are going to MOP within the next one month. Which means that these owners bought in May/June 2014.  60 units turned up in my data. Out of these 60 units, 38 units are estimated to be in the red. With the HDB resale $psf trend on a decline now, I am not sure if these 38 units will ever see profitability even in another 5 years.

 

However, I could not tell how many are resale and how many are BTOs in that 60 units which turn up in my data. I think most should be resale.

 

The point is if D3 is already facing this for HDB units after 2013, what more about other district?

Edited May 25, 2019 by Icedbs

[Icedbs]

BTW, just for curiosity, I ran my data for Punggol  HDB units that are going to MOP within the next one month.

 

27 units turned up, 25 units are estimated to be in the red.

 

I believe these should be mostly BTOs considering it is Punggol.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Icedbs

[Sdf4786k]

As mentioned earlier, HDB for own stay PTE investment so different ballgame altogether.

If looking purely based on capital apprecation, many factors to consider.

 

Example-

BTO in a good matured estate 500-700k, 50% upside to sell 750k-1mil potentially achievable future.

EC current near 1k psf, can sell 1.5k psf future for around same upside?

 

Then there's the cost factor-

BTO- lower cost, less bank loan equal less interest pay up full faster against ... EC- higher cost, more debt etc.

 

Both got pro and con, diff strokes diff folks. But generally, for a young couple just starting out, I would say BTO still the way to go, can look into PTE as investment in future.

 

not only that. Nowadays, with the working landscape so different like CECA and disruption, less risky to buy BTO.

[therock]

Whether a BTO can double its price is highly dependent on its location..

I think that’s obvious but let’s put it out there just so no one has any illusions..

A flat in marsiling 15-20 min from a MRT is quite different from a Dawson one for example..

That applies to ECs too.

[Tiger1]

The climate has indeed changed.

 

Previously, I always tell my younger friends, don't waste your citizen rights by buying your first property a Hdb flat. Stay 5 yrs, sell and apply for another new hdb. Stay another 5 yrs and sell to buy an EC if you still qualify. Stay 5 yrs and sell and move on to private. This is the safest and easiest way to make monies from property without too much stress.

 

Now, that method won't work anymore. However, the fundamentals remain the same... Start with a hdb...

[Alfc]

The climate has indeed changed.

 

Previously, I always tell my younger friends, don't waste your citizen rights by buying your first property a Hdb flat. Stay 5 yrs, sell and apply for another new hdb. Stay another 5 yrs and sell to buy an EC if you still qualify. Stay 5 yrs and sell and move on to private. This is the safest and easiest way to make monies from property without too much stress.

 

Now, that method won't work anymore. However, the fundamentals remain the same... Start with a hdb...

This is a more mercenary approach. Cannot attached emotion to the property. Fact of life is do one view the property as a house or a home?

 

Monetary gains vs non-monetary loss. Need to be very clinical in one's overall value system and only certain type/profile people can execute this well.

[Tiger1]

This is a more mercenary approach. Cannot attached emotion to the property. Fact of life is do one view the property as a house or a home?

 

Monetary gains vs non-monetary loss. Need to be very clinical in one's overall value system and only certain type/profile people can execute this well.

You are very correct. This is indeed a more mercenary approach.