Singapore Private Property prices still up or down? Part III

[Icedbs]

due to enlightenment in 2017 about lh99 drop to zero value in 99th year hence people not so keen in old lh99 nowadays be it hdb or pte

 

people tend to prefer new lh99 or fh now

116 bought direct from government at so high prices????

omg

 

Sorry.....I may have made it a little confusing, my bad.

 

116 includes resale. 132  units will MOP within next 1 month, but that includes resale units.

 

I did not bother to go into how many BTO and how many resale because the number of the units under water are already a big majority.

[therock]

5 min walk? You need to be within 200-300m... we should take a 50-60 yr old man walking leisurely..

(IMO, most of the members here are already middle-aged or more..)

[Alfc]

old pte lh99 in lousy locations may be falling

but new LH99 and FH in good locations are going up

shows that buyers are now selective of choice properties that can hedge against inflation

If inflation is at 3% p.a, effectively a $1m LH99 property today needs to sell out at $1.8m 20 years later (with 78 yrs lease remaining) just to match.

 

Anything less than 30% capital appreciation 20 years later (based on 50% upfront, BSD, ABSD, conveyances, today's gross rental yield 3%, 2% loan,5k per year property-related expenses), one would be in no better off than just to put the current cash upfront in a relatively do-nothing risk-free type of 1.8% return (SSB, ETFs, term insurance etc). There are so many variables that can swing the equation for property ownership vs just 1 for the fixed income investment.

 

Not saying dun buy or disputing property uptrend but one got to do the sums. Not a sure win for just any purchase which is already mentioned by many here.

[Ltk]

By 2030 LTA masterplan say 80% of household will be within 10 mins walk to a mrt station... I estimate 10 mins to be about 600m..

 

If 8 in 10 have this access it means that

 

1. If you are not within 600m your apartment / condo is considered very inconvenient

 

2. If you are within 600m u are just one of the 80%

 

3. If you are within 300m and 5 mins walk the apartment is considered desirable

 

4. If within 200m and 3 mins walk then super super hot!

 

5. If within 200-300m and there is a mall there as well and FH!!! This is the ultimate already must keep long long

[Enye]

1.5m quantum seem like the norm now for a entry level mass market lh99 pte condo 3br

eg if the 3br unit is 1100sqf , 1.5mil means its $1400psf

 

notwithstanding, even ulu location EC direct from hdb now already hit $1080psf !!

 

btw i guess mass mkt quantum is always pegged to median household income

 

currently median h/h income is about $9500per mth, so if tdsr is 60%, means total debt payable per month for this household is $5700

say a household buy a 1.5mil pte condo down 20%, borrow 80% for 25yr at 2.6% interest, the bank loan is 1.2mil, monthly payment to bank is $5400

wah if this is called good debt, having cash must be super evil

 

 

[Theoldjaffa]

By 2030 LTA masterplan say 80% of household will be within 10 mins walk to a mrt station... I estimate 10 mins to be about 600m..

 

If 8 in 10 have this access it means that

 

1. If you are not within 600m your apartment / condo is considered very inconvenient

 

2. If you are within 600m u are just one of the 80%

 

3. If you are within 300m and 5 mins walk the apartment is considered desirable

 

4. If within 200m and 3 mins walk then super super hot!

 

5. If within 200-300m and there is a mall there as well and FH!!! This is the ultimate already must keep long long ð

Need to have some context. Doesn't mean any unit within 3 mins walk to MRT is super duper hot.

 

Gimme a unit that's 1 min walk to an ulu place like Joo Koon MRT.. or Tengah for example.. I say thanks but no thanks.

 

I'll take a unit in OCR anytime. Not near MRT? There's always feeder buses.

[Showster]

1.5m quantum seem like the norm now for a entry level mass market lh99 pte condo 3br

eg if the 3br unit is 1100sqf , 1.5mil means its $1400psf

 

notwithstanding, even ulu location EC direct from hdb now already hit $1080psf !!

 

btw i guess mass mkt quantum is always pegged to median household income

 

currently median h/h income is about $9500per mth, so if tdsr is 60%, means total debt payable per month for this household is $5700

say a household buy a 1.5mil pte condo down 20%, borrow 80% for 25yr at 2.6% interest, the bank loan is 1.2mil, monthly payment to bank is $5400

Nowadays where got down 20%?

 

Govt says down 25% minimum.

 

Later if property run continues unabated, down 30% on the way..

 

Run slowly.

[Showster]

not many people willing to pay ABSD to keep the hdb

2nd property absd for local is now 12% leh

say if the hdb worth 400k in resale market and the pte property bought at 1mil, is it worth to pay the 12% absd which is 120k to keep the 400k hdb?

120k is 30% of 400k !

 

of course if nobody buy the hdb also no choice have to keep

Outskirts HDB will take 6 years to recoup in rent.

 

Near central HDB will take 4 years perhaps.

[therock]

Hong Kongers are coming:

https://www.asiaone.com/asia/singapore-becomes-option-hongkongers-amid-political-crisis

"His clients - mostly families with one or two children - often came with a budget of between S$5 million and S$20 million, and opted for listings in prime residential areas such as Singapore's shopping district, Orchard Road.

The latest government figures show Singapore's private home prices are on the rise, but even for those with smaller budgets and despite the additional buyers' stamp duty, homes there are still more affordable than in Hong Kong.

A 2018 report by property site 99.co revealed that a buyer with S$2 million could afford a 1,000 sq ft flat at Cairnhill Circle, located near Orchard. But the same amount could only buy a 448 sq ft flat in Hong Kong's Kennedy Town.

Added Chandran: "There is also a strong sense of safety and security due to the tight rule of law, and there is more stability here."

Other factors such as the low crime rate and absence of natural disasters were a draw for George Chan, a Hongkonger who relocated to Singapore last year with his wife and their two-year-old son."

Just as we were once the birds in Oz (cheap cheap), now they are the new birds in SG..

[Enye]

ah then? hold cash and watch inflation depreciate your cash meh

ð ð ð hahaha

ya ya you are right.... inflation is such a big monster

 

so you holding 30 or 40 properties with no cash down?

 

 

[Invigorated]

Hong Kongers are coming:

https://www.asiaone.com/asia/singapore-becomes-option-hongkongers-amid-political-crisis

 

"His clients - mostly families with one or two children - often came with a budget of between S$5 million and S$20 million, and opted for listings in prime residential areas such as Singapore's shopping district, Orchard Road.

The latest government figures show Singapore's private home prices are on the rise, but even for those with smaller budgets and despite the additional buyers' stamp duty, homes there are still more affordable than in Hong Kong.

A 2018 report by property site 99.co revealed that a buyer with S$2 million could afford a 1,000 sq ft flat at Cairnhill Circle, located near Orchard. But the same amount could only buy a 448 sq ft flat in Hong Kong's Kennedy Town.

Added Chandran: "There is also a strong sense of safety and security due to the tight rule of law, and there is more stability here."

Other factors such as the low crime rate and absence of natural disasters were a draw for George Chan, a Hongkonger who relocated to Singapore last year with his wife and their two-year-old son."

 

Just as we were once the birds in Oz (cheap cheap), now they are the new birds in SG..

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/is-this-the-house-that-jack-ma-is-building-in-singapore

 

Some Chinese who were targeting HK may also switch their sights to Aussie, UK or neighboring Asia. Some spillover is inevitable.

[Wt_know]

wah ... all come with $5M to $20M

more Porsches will be on the road soon?

Edited July 30, 2019 by Wt_know

[Neost]

welcome welcome, all are welcome

 

people want to give us money why we want to reject

 

HUAT HUAT everyone

[Sdf4786k]

this is what is happening now, BTO is no longer pegged to resale. HDB is falling. Is private property falling?

 

nobody owes anybody anything. The fundamental job of the government is to keep the people happy. If enough people wants to upgrade to private property, a smart government will listen to the people wishes and not make it out of reach. simple as that. 

 

 

the current ABSD scheme actually enables a very warped logic that if you buy Two property, one wife one husband, you siam ABSD and makes it look like a good deal.....

 

i doubt its about making people happy .

 

Its all about the eco landscape.

 

If it goes into a glut, the extent of risk exposure would be unthinkable. Having say that, JB forest City still going strong, so not sure why have not gone belly up.

 

HDB is a similar mechanism like sub prime but at a smaller quantum.

 

HDB does not rule you out if your earnings to upkeep the loan of 30 years is questionable.

[Enye]

sound like you missed the boat!!

hahaha ha ha

 

[Wt_know]

I dont know you but you seem to portray yourself as such so you leave the impression that you feel sore for missing the boat, no?

haha ha ha!!

ð ð ð ð ð ð

harlow ... did you read ST Sunday Times

enye probably featured in ST hor

early 30 already owned 10-20 properties including commercial properties ... or was it Showster? hehe ...

Edited July 30, 2019 by Wt_know

[Enye]

I dont know you but you seem to portray yourself as such so you leave the impression that you feel sore for missing the boat, no?

haha ha ha!!

 

[Kusje]

ya you are right....i very sore about missing the boat and envy the 20% private property owners

 

but i tiagong holding cash is silly so i spent it all

 

luckily got 1 guru tell me a secret that i can hold 20-30 properties without any cash down

 

so now i can proudly tell my friends and relatives i own more than 20 properties in sg and overseas

 

 

 

wah. sifu finally admitted.

 

20 properties!