Singapore Private Property prices still up or down? Part III

[Showster]

28 minutes ago, bernardkohdm said:

Came across this article, analysts say Singapore property prices will not tumble with a few supporting points ... how true is it?

https://www.the-avenir-condominiums.com/analysts-dont-expect-private-property-prices-to-tumble-despite-fall-in-q1-based-on-prelim-data/

What they said is what is reported = true.

Whether it will happen exactly that way, may need a crystal ball.

The situation forward is fraught with uncertainties - 95% of "experts" will claim drop within a few %. Who knows? 

That said, why does what others say matter? You know your own situation.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Showster

[sti2020]

Analysts predict up to 8% full-year drop in private home prices

THU, APR 02, 2020 - 5:50 AM

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/analysts-predict-up-to-8-full-year-drop-in-private-home-prices

[Showster]

48 minutes ago, sti2020 said:

Analysts predict up to 8% full-year drop in private home prices

THU, APR 02, 2020 - 5:50 AM

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/analysts-predict-up-to-8-full-year-drop-in-private-home-prices

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/property-market-to-rise-or-fall-30-sure-ive-heard-that-one-before

 

"In December 2011, Morgan Stanley issued a report predicting that prices of residential property would fall 20 per cent by end 2012.

At that time, Standard Chartered made an even more dire forecast that prices would fall 30 per cent in 12 months. This was just after the Government announced what one research house termed "bazooka" measures to cool the market, including an additional 10 per cent stamp duty on foreign purchasers of private residential property.

Goldman Sachs predicted home prices would slide 15 per cent over the next 18 months; CIMB Research said a 15 per cent to 20 per cent fall in a year was conceivable.

With major analyst houses predicting falls, and with a new slew of cooling measures, you would think the market would crash in 2012.

Instead, not only did prices not fall by 15 or 30 per cent at the end of 2013: They went up."

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Showster

[Throttle2]

For some people, when analysts predict up up, they agree analyst correct.  But when analyst predict down down, they disagree with analyst and say analyst incorrect.

what does that show?  One sidedness, of course! 

As for me,  i never f**k care what the analyst say becos they dont know shit.  I do what i know is best for me and my family.

 

[sti2020]

11 minutes ago, Showster said:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/property-market-to-rise-or-fall-30-sure-ive-heard-that-one-before

 

"In December 2011, Morgan Stanley issued a report predicting that prices of residential property would fall 20 per cent by end 2012.

At that time, Standard Chartered made an even more dire forecast that prices would fall 30 per cent in 12 months. This was just after the Government announced what one research house termed "bazooka" measures to cool the market, including an additional 10 per cent stamp duty on foreign purchasers of private residential property.

Goldman Sachs predicted home prices would slide 15 per cent over the next 18 months; CIMB Research said a 15 per cent to 20 per cent fall in a year was conceivable.

With major analyst houses predicting falls, and with a new slew of cooling measures, you would think the market would crash in 2012.

Instead, not only did prices not fall by 15 or 30 per cent at the end of 2013: They went up."

 

 

why are you quoting from a different group of analysts?

some more you are quoting old-BS by amdk MS and GS 

for singapore property sentiment, i rather believe savills and propnex who are directly connected to the homeground

[Showster]

5 minutes ago, sti2020 said:

 

why are you quoting from a different group of analysts?

some more you are quoting old-BS by amdk MS and GS 

for singapore property sentiment, i rather believe savills and propnex who are directly connected to the homeground

Goes to show you have only read headline figures.

Read the context of that article I sent again.

Nobody disputes the negative pressure on prices currently. It would be surprising to find one analyst to predict an immediate price rise.

The main idea is so much is unknown about what is coming that it is equally radical to hold onto the maximum "UP TO 8%" figure. What about the local analysts who predict a less than 5% dip in 2020? Or those who predict no changes?

 

[sti2020]

8 minutes ago, Showster said:

Goes to show you have only read headline figures.

Read the context of that article I sent again.

Nobody disputes the negative pressure on prices currently. It would be surprising to find one analyst to predict an immediate price rise.

The main idea is so much is unknown about what is coming that it is equally radical to hold onto the maximum "UP TO 8%" figure. What about the local analysts who predict a less than 5% dip in 2020? Or those who predict no changes?

 

nah, i am talking about you quoting old news by amdk analysts  when the current report is by local analysts talking about current tides

you are barking up the wrong tree

[Showster]

4 minutes ago, sti2020 said:

nah, i am talking about you quoting old news by amdk analysts  when the current report is by local analysts talking about current tides

you are barking up the wrong tree

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/property-market-to-rise-or-fall-30-sure-ive-heard-that-one-before

You din even read the link and you said I barking up the wrong tree?

In fact, most of her writings are on predictions of growth that did not materialise.

"I might have taken forecasts at face value before; now I take them with a large pinch of salt.

Analysts' forecasts have a way of being wrong. To be sure, analysts can't predict policy changes, such as cooling measures or tightening of immigration, that will play havoc with their projections. Nor can anyone predict external market or political events that have a major impact on property prices.

Most of all, property prices are driven by sentiment and the instincts of the herd, and so are subject to emotional factors. They are also highly reactive, creating self-fulfilling prophecies as buyers buy on bullish forecasts, setting prices higher, which in turn leads to more positive forecasts. Dour predictions can similarly chill a market.

The mix of event risk and sentiment makes property price predictions notoriously inaccurate."

Edited April 2, 2020 by Showster

[sti2020]

1 minute ago, Showster said:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/property-market-to-rise-or-fall-30-sure-ive-heard-that-one-before

You din even read the link and you said I barking up the wrong tree?

In fact, most of her writings are on predictions of growth that did not materialise.

"I might have taken forecasts at face value before; now I take them with a large pinch of salt"

dont roti prata lah, see what you quoted off that old report by amdk :

Quote

 

"In December 2011, Morgan Stanley issued a report predicting that prices of residential property would fall 20 per cent by end 2012.

At that time, Standard Chartered made an even more dire forecast that prices would fall 30 per cent in 12 months. This was just after the Government announced what one research house termed "bazooka" measures to cool the market, including an additional 10 per cent stamp duty on foreign purchasers of private residential property.

Goldman Sachs predicted home prices would slide 15 per cent over the next 18 months; CIMB Research said a 15 per cent to 20 per cent fall in a year was conceivable.

With major analyst houses predicting falls, and with a new slew of cooling measures, you would think the market would crash in 2012.

Instead, not only did prices not fall by 15 or 30 per cent at the end of 2013: They went up."

 

 

[Showster]

3 minutes ago, sti2020 said:

dont roti prata lah, see what you quoted off that old report by amdk :

 

Exactly right. When do analysts every really get it right???

Remember, the article of analyst predictions was in press before easing measures to defer mortgage payment till end 2020.

The story is still developing and highly dynamic.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Showster

[Showster]

https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/house-prices-could-jump-20-in-2018-savills

Savills if you like. Anything like that happen in 2018???

[Roh96]

Gurus say pent up demand, billions of dollars flowing from HK to Spore, many people with huge war chest waiting to hoot, annual price increase to infinity, multi millionaires from enbloc,...and so many more that I cannot remember liao. 

But I don't know where are these rich people now.. have they all chicken out? 

[Throttle2]

12 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

Gurus say pent up demand, billions of dollars flowing from HK to Spore, many people with huge war chest waiting to hoot, annual price increase to infinity, multi millionaires from enbloc,...and so many more that I cannot remember liao. 

But I don't know where are these rich people now.. have they all chicken out? 

many are hugely leveraged.

So many lost their pants in the last few weeks.

i not leveraged already lost a 5rm HDB. Imagine those....

rich people always chicken out

only poor guys like us continue the fight

fighting

muayhahaha 😅

Edited April 2, 2020 by Throttle2

[sti2020]

21 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

Gurus say pent up demand, billions of dollars flowing from HK to Spore, many people with huge war chest waiting to hoot, annual price increase to infinity, multi millionaires from enbloc,...and so many more that I cannot remember liao. 

But I don't know where are these rich people now.. have they all chicken out? 

stormy weather ahead, better to hibernate in bear's den

[sti2020]

14 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

many are hugely leveraged.

So many lost their pants in the last few weeks.

i not leveraged already lost a 5rm HDB. Imagine those....

rich people always chicken out

only poor guys like us continue the fight

fighting

muayhahaha 😅

a 5room hdb only? come back when you lost 2 bungalows

[Throttle2]

Good thing i didnt borrow to buy a few properties in the recent few years

so proud of myself 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Throttle2

[Volvobrick]

31 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

Good thing i didnt borrow to buy a few properties in the recent few years

so proud of myself 

I can't borrow. Bank won't lend cos no income. Want to leverage also cannot! Buy property can only use precious cash. Jin Sian! 

BTW, back to what I said, if these analysists or experts so clever so zhun, no need to work for others. Just ownself speculate can liao. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Volvobrick

[sti2020]

12 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

I can't borrow. Bank won't lend cos no income. Want to leverage also cannot! Buy property can only use precious cash. Jin Sian! 

BTW, back to what I said, if these analysists or experts so clever so zhun, no need to work for others. Just ownself speculate can liao. 

that's why these experts are working as analysts , not storeman or wiping table or selling 2nd hand watch