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Singapore Private Property prices still up or down? Part III

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1st Gear (edited)

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/key-global-cities-register-price-growth-prime-residential-property-3q2020-despite-pandemic-knight?utm_source=Whatsapp&utm_medium=news

Last quarter, Auckland led the rankings after recording a 12.9% y-o-y increase in prime property prices. It was followed by Manilla which saw a 10.2% y-o-y increase, and Shenzhen which registered an 8.9% y-o-y increase in prime property prices. Singapore took 45th place with prime property prices falling 6.1% y-o-y in 3Q2020.

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Edited by Arcachon
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On 11/11/2020 at 7:29 PM, Throttle2 said:

Spammer Thread.....this has become....😩

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His post mostly property news  and property information links in a property thread......not spam what. Quite informative.

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1st Gear (edited)

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Inflation-adjusted prices staged a fulminant recovery in the last four quarters after six years of correction, rising by 9%. Nonetheless, the market remains fairly valued. Prices are 5% below their 2011 peak and the price-income ratio is still shy of its long-term average.

Vacancy rates declined until the middle of this year, but the long-term supply is well-stocked. Housing permits surged in anticipation of the transaction market recovering further after bottoming out in the second half of last year. The surprise regulatory policy tightening announced in July should dampen investor appetite. Additional buyer stamp duties (ABSD) have been targeted specifically at developers to limit land price speculation. Purchasers of investment properties have also been slapped with higher ABSD. So we expect speculative buying to decline and price growth to decelerate by the end of the year. Rising interest rates limit the upside as well. Overall, the consequent stalling of any price rebound by the government prevents the emergence of speculative tendencies in the real estate market

 

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/life-goals/real-estate/2018/global-real-estate-bubble-index-2018.html

Edited by Arcachon

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1st Gear (edited)

No worry, very common when NATO, sour grapes, MTB are exposed.

They like to reaffirm one another.

Edited by Arcachon

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1st Gear (edited)

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The brief housing boom between mid-2017 and mid-2018 is over. Prices have stagnated since and the number of transactions fallen. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index score for Singapore remains in the fair-valued zone. The market slowdown is attributable to several factors. The government is keeping the market on a leash. The additional buyer stamp duties (ABSD) for developers and purchasers of investment properties introduced last year have put a lid on the price upside and curbed speculative demand. Population growth has also declined notably in the past two years. Finally, economic momentum is expected to deteriorate, limiting the willingness to pay. Overall, we expect prices to remain at current levels over the coming few quarters. However, while regulatory measures still cap price growth expectations, the risk of a price correction is limited by sound market fundamentals, including a declining vacancy rate, good affordability, and a healthy employment market. The Singapore housing market is one the few among those we cover in which private housing affordability has improved in the last 10 years. Current prices are similar to those in 2008 while household incomes have climbed by 20%. Nonetheless, affordability is still stretched. It takes 12 annual incomes to buy a 60m2 (650 sqft) apartment on the private market.

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Edited by Arcachon

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image.png.140b43ac163b6504837afff595faa7a0.png

 

Home prices in Singapore have only slightly increased over the last two years, and they have treaded water in 2020 in the face of the pandemic-triggered recession. There are no signs of an overheating housing market. Accordingly, the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index score remains virtually unchanged from the previous year’s, and indicates that Singapore’s market is in fair-valued territory. Overall, the market still looks balanced in terms of demand and supply over the medium term. The number of households jumped from the previous year, and the vacancy rate has been declining. However, the number of unsold units remains significantly higher than it was in 2017 at the start of the most recent price uptick. Also, the medium-term development pipeline is still well stocked. We expect the vacancy rate to stabilize at current levels. We think home prices will soften in the near term. Market evidence suggests that developers are adopting flexible pricing given the weak economic outlook and heightened competition from new launches. Moreover, the ongoing pandemic has not prompted the government to ease existing property cooling measures, so elevated stamp duties are continuing to constrain prices. That said, the government remains watchful of the housing market, and has ample levers to support the downside in the event prices fall sharply. Attractive mortgage rates, balanced market fundamentals, and resilient demand should also limit the downside.

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On 11/10/2020 at 6:16 PM, Arcachon said:

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I bet when they no longer allow reissurance of OTP, some people on the boat are forced to make a decision. 

Next month let's see a volume dip, then price decline. 

 

  • Haha! 1

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You are not the first and you will not be the last, hope you are not 3 of them.
 

 

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8 hours ago, Arcachon said:

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This should be before BSD and ABSD, which will delay the return by another 5 years+

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