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therock

By therock,
in Property Buzz

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

In essence it is a matter of risk taking.

High risk, high gain or loss.

Low risk, low gain or loss.

Most important factor to ask is how much we trust the future success of SG. 

If we believe strongly in it, why take such an unconfident wager? Such as if we believe it will always be a special place and willing to pay higher prices for a HDB. 

If we don’t believe in the future of it, then renting is a preferable position to minimise our stakes. 

HDB ownership is a medium confident stake.

Between staking a HDB hold versus a private LH hold or a FH hold, the major difference is a matter of how much one can afford to risk. Private affordability has to be persistently tagged to earning incomes of the top 30 percent or so.

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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
On 8/30/2019 at 1:27 PM, Kusje said:

I think there could be a lot of factors beyond rich parents landing a hand.

For downpayment wise, not that difficult to save 150k each after working for about 5 years - it all depends on your saving pattern.

For monthly payments, 1.2 mil is actually about 8 times annual income (assuming 3 mths bonus). It also depends on which stage of your career you are in, how stable the job/industry is and also your opportunities for advancement. More importantly, must know what your expenses are - if you are currently making 12k and spending only 5k, then it is okay. But if you are spending 10k then you might not be able to afford it.

5 years can save $300k

can still buy EC that is subsidized by tax payer money ... wtf ... [mad] 

no wonder tax can only goes up

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Kusje

Kusje

Supersonic
6 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

5 years can save $300k

can still buy EC that is subsidized by tax payer money ... wtf ... [mad] 

no wonder tax can only goes up

What's wrong with saving 300k in 5 years?

Some people are spenders, some are savers.  

You mean someone making 12k and saving no money is more deserving of subsidy than someone making 12k and saving 300k? I think it should be based on income and not savings.

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Kusje

Kusje

Supersonic
On 8/30/2019 at 2:16 PM, Enye said:

 

read my post above....prudence has always been in my post

you demonstrated 12k can afford which was never my point. 

😉

You mentioned a few times that 12k income cannot buy unless paid for by parents. I merely want to show you that it is wrong and 12k income can indeed pay for it out of their own pocket.

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Tianmo

Tianmo

Hypersonic
On 8/29/2019 at 11:27 AM, Wt_know said:

soon LCK is also prime ... but sub .... sub-prime ... lol

If they build a new CBD in Jurong East and turn it prime, LCK is not so far away...[laugh][laugh][laugh]

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
27 minutes ago, Kusje said:

What's wrong with saving 300k in 5 years?

Some people are spenders, some are savers.  

You mean someone making 12k and saving no money is more deserving of subsidy than someone making 12k and saving 300k? I think it should be based on income and not savings.

Exactly right. With no existing mortgage and with CPF contributions, 300K in 5 years is easily accomplished with max 12K household income. Just save 3K in cash and 2K in OA every month.

Don’t include interests also reach 300K.

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Roh96

Roh96

6th Gear

Already coming to 20 yrs and Punggol land is still not fully used up. The GSW is double the size of Punggol. Seriously, there is really no hurry to jump in. Govt can slowly milk the GSW land for 30-40 years.  

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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)
2 hours ago, Roh96 said:

Already coming to 20 yrs and Punggol land is still not fully used up. The GSW is double the size of Punggol. Seriously, there is really no hurry to jump in. Govt can slowly milk the GSW land for 30-40 years.  

wah still got Woodland, Tuas, Bidadari, Paya Lebar air base, LCK etc to develop 

like that .... population no 10M no talk [sly] .... huat ah!

Edited by Wt_know
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)
5 hours ago, therock said:

Mr Ku chimes in 

the oversupply is the main issue 

120 k worth of units is no joke..

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw427uj--dU

We need roughly 10,000 new HDB and 8,000 new private annually just to keep things from blowing off the top.

What’s the big deal about 150,000 units coming fully on stream by about 2050-2070 (based on KSY)? Moreover, this piece of land is likely going to be extra costly with additional height catered for the land reclaimed and raised.

Edited by Showster
Update in numbers and years
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awhtc

awhtc

6th Gear
1 hour ago, Showster said:

We need roughly 10,000 new HDB and 8,000 new private annually just to keep things from blowing off the top.

What’s the big deal about 150,000 units coming fully on stream by about 2050-2070 (based on KSY)? Moreover, this piece of land is likely going to be extra costly with additional height catered for the land reclaimed and raised.

Mr Ku is concerned about whether the population can grow fast enough to fill up the houses and there are too many new developments going around e.g. Jurong Innovation District.

Based on 0.5% population growth and 4 members per household, we need about 7,500 units per year.  Hence, I think the current newly launched 1/2-bedder units (typically >60% of the total units in a project) snapped up for investment could be on the over-supply side i.e. too many expensive units that cannot be supported by rental.

Perhaps our economy is growing so slowly now that investors are pouring their money into traditionally safe properties as nothing else seems to be good these days, but I think it might be a trap in the next 2-3 years when the projects TOP.

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Khng8

Khng8

4th Gear
2 hours ago, Showster said:

We need roughly 10,000 new HDB and 8,000 new private annually just to keep things from blowing off the top.

What’s the big deal about 150,000 units coming fully on stream by about 2050-2070 (based on KSY)? Moreover, this piece of land is likely going to be extra costly with additional height catered for the land reclaimed and raised.

Can share where you think the new jobs are that can support the population growth?

The 4th industry revolution seems like doing more with less (people). 

Would really like to hear all views on this.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
25 minutes ago, awhtc said:

Mr Ku is concerned about whether the population can grow fast enough to fill up the houses and there are too many new developments going around e.g. Jurong Innovation District.

Based on 0.5% population growth and 4 members per household, we need about 7,500 units per year.  Hence, I think the current newly launched 1/2-bedder units (typically >60% of the total units in a project) snapped up for investment could be on the over-supply side i.e. too many expensive units that cannot be supported by rental.

Perhaps our economy is growing so slowly now that investors are pouring their money into traditionally safe properties as nothing else seems to be good these days, but I think it might be a trap in the next 2-3 years when the projects TOP.

If 4 pax per unit is 7,500 units, 1-2 pax per unit will reach the numbers I reported.

When people first buy a house, it is almost always 2 persons household formation.

At the same time, in the background, there are still SERS and enbloc removing large units from the system.

In 2010, it feels like a trap. In 2012, it feels like a trap. So does 2015 and 2017 and 2019. All these while, latent demand has continued to build up. With that kind of background, the property run will continue even skipping on one toe. 

And even 2013-2015, it was an expected downturn because of historically it was the first time TDSR had been implemented at such a high bar.

This is a different run from anything we have encountered in our history. It has been run in such a way that the supply has never met the true demand.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)
44 minutes ago, Khng8 said:

Can share where you think the new jobs are that can support the population growth?

The 4th industry revolution seems like doing more with less (people). 

Would really like to hear all views on this.

One big area is the silver generation as the population ages. Healthcare for example.

Tourism as the integrated resorts expand.

Global hub as the airport terminals expand.

Port growth for the new Tuas port facilities.

People I know are just job hopping continually. There just aren’t enough jobs to go round (especially for Singaporeans).

Doing more with less people also means paying much more for these people. From a private property pricing standpoint, this will play a supporting role.

Edited by Showster
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