COE Bidding – 1st Round of September 2019

[Ngseeming]

When market (not just COE, property, stock, commodities and what have you) is hot, potential buyers will tend to commit earlier than they plan to for fear of price going even higher.

Reverse is true, when market is trending down, for those who can wait, they wait (I do even though my SE asked me to name a figure and he'd see what he could do). Unless there is a plunge then many will commit for fear of (dead cat) rebound. Slow trending down like now is ideal for waiting game.

Prices may be cheap(er) now. The next rounds, barring "technical" rebound will likely to be cheaper still.

Significant higher COE?  yes, from Q2 2020 onward when the quota will be cut by about 50%. Even that is on the assumption that no severe recession in Sg then.

My 2 cts.

[RogerNg_185295]

10 hours ago, Contented said:

Go their road show and you will know how much discount they are giving after this bid... see yourself.. 🙂

Which roadshow and at where?

[Ct3833]

17 hours ago, Contented said:

Haha... actually mean those first bid one get their car...

My take COE going up.. you see how small car maintain the price... dealer will be selling car with more discount this 2 weeks... go showroom...

 it will fluctuate around this range until last 2 or 3 bids towards the end of the quater, when LTA starts to announce  the reduction of COE allocation for next Q, people will rush in again. 

[JQ01]

My estimate on the quota side. There is 600K+ cars, so the current per bid of A+B+E of ~2500 quota is actually quite in line if we do 600K/240. Feb2020 onwards the quota will drop but likely at the ~2000 per bid range and stay around there till 2024... The 5-year renew cars is slowly balancing the quota available to be more stable and hopefully the coe price also become more stable, probably around $20K~$30K range. I personally think that coe price should not drop below $10K, it cause too many early de-registration and make the quota less stable. Just my personal opinion.

[Ngseeming]

If we don't take into account of  early de-registration  and COE renewal, the quota for Cat A+B+E for fiscal year 2019 is approx. 1/3 x 88,583 (car age 9-10 at 1.1.2018) + 2/3 x 62,955 (car age 9-10 at 1.1.2019) = 71,497. Total car quota issued at end Aug = 49,200 or pro rata 73,800 COE for 2019. Difference = 71497/73800 = 97% or 3% variation

Base on the same assumption, fiscal year 2020 quota will be 62,955 x 1/3 + 2/3 x 39,859 (car age 9-10 at 1.1.2020) = 47,557  with about 20985 car COE for Jan - Apr ( or 5346 quota each month) while quota for May to Dec 2020 = 26,572 or 3,321 per month.

That's why I said in my earlier post that COE from Q2 2020 will decrease by about 50% .actually 38% if the diff (2025) is divided over 5346 but 61% if diff divide over 3321. 

 

Source : Age Distribution of car population. onemotoring

 

[Scion]

On 9/6/2019 at 3:29 PM, JQ01 said:

My estimate on the quota side. There is 600K+ cars, so the current per bid of A+B+E of ~2500 quota is actually quite in line if we do 600K/240. Feb2020 onwards the quota will drop but likely at the ~2000 per bid range and stay around there till 2024... The 5-year renew cars is slowly balancing the quota available to be more stable and hopefully the coe price also become more stable, probably around $20K~$30K range. I personally think that coe price should not drop below $10K, it cause too many early de-registration and make the quota less stable. Just my personal opinion.

 

for normal demand and supply, COE difficult to go below 15k or even 10k

only when a crisis hit (recession, unemployment rate shoot up, everyone fearful) will most people consider twice or thrice before committing so much money to buy these big ticket items

[Harthen]

Got this feeling both cat A and cat B will go down abit next bidding. Give showrooms chance to attract crowds again. + nobody created the thread? Lol...

[LinusLoh_1967]

2 hours ago, Harthen said:

Got this feeling both cat A and cat B will go down abit next bidding. Give showrooms chance to attract crowds again. + nobody created the thread? Lol...

Ya, plus it's so hazy I no mood to go anywhere lol!