COE Bidding – 2nd Round of September 2019

[Rskc]

On 9/20/2019 at 11:37 AM, Jamesc said:

So no recession then. 

Young people who just started a new job go get that condo and BMW. 

No chance you will lose your job. 

you can

 

You can trust RSKC. 

Hahaha. I certainly hope I can forecast recession but unfortunately I do not have the crystal ball. 😆

You mentioned costs cutting and letting pp go is a prelude (leading indicator) to recession. I am merely saying it may not be. It is already happening before the trade war etc. Cost cutting roadmap has been there for the longest time I can remember for any decent company, during good n bad times. Letting pp go has been around and only more evident recently due to digitalisation as pp cannot adapt to new technology e.g. RPAs, automation in supply chain etc. Companies cannot keep these dead woods forever IF they refuse to be trained or change. Some office professionals in this era still do not know how to use excel filtering and pivot. 

And yes, we will get into recession faster if these pp cannot contribute to GDP.

Ok back to COE!! 😊

[Jamesc]

2 minutes ago, Rskc said:

Hahaha. I certainly hope I can forecast recession but unfortunately I do not have the crystal ball. 😆

You mentioned costs cutting and letting pp go is a prelude (leading indicator) to recession. I am merely saying it may not be. It is already happening before the trade war etc. Cost cutting roadmap has been there for the longest time I can remember for any decent company, during good n bad times. Letting pp go has been around and only more evident recently due to digitalisation as pp cannot adapt to new technology e.g. RPAs, automation in supply chain etc. Companies cannot keep these dead woods forever IF they refuse to be trained or change. Some office professionals in this era still do not know how to use excel filtering and pivot. 

And yes, we will get into recession faster if these pp cannot contribute to GDP.

Ok back to COE!! 😊

What I mention was - "COE and housing prices are lagging indicators of economic activity."

Its not the same as - "You mentioned costs cutting and letting pp go is a prelude (leading indicator) to recession."

But the main point you miss is I mention - " Every company I know is cutting cost but they are not cutting staff on a big level yet.

They are cutting overseas travel, training courses and entertainment first.

Only as a last resort will they cut staff and only when staff are cut on a massive level then COE will fall."

I completely agree with you that dead wood is always cut (in my opinion not fast enough, I always want to see more dead wood go even faster.)

Any way the point I was making is COE hasn't come down BECAUSE no retrenchment on a massive level yet.

😀

[Jamesc]

I always read when the recession comes more people will be driving PHVs.

Its sounds right but if you analyse it a bit more maybe not.

Firstly because no more Uber fighting to get more drivers means no more big incentives.

Many drivers complain because no more big incentive its not so worthwhile to do PHV now.

Then in a recession with people losing their jobs people will be taking taxi and PHV even less.

They will be taking bus and mrt and go out even less.

During SARS so many taxi drivers was saying so few customers cannot even meet their rental.

If so few customers will people want to even rent a car to do PHV?

😀

[Jamesc]

If we look on the roads already a substantial number of PHVs.

Are thousands of people waiting to do PHV and waiting to rent a car?

I remember when Uber left so many cars waiting to be rented out.

If there are cars wanting to be rented out will rental companies be buying more cars and pushing up COE?

😀

[Scion]

1 hour ago, Fat_slayer said:

In my opinion, when unemployment shoots up, there will be a bigger demand for PHV as those whom are unemployed will work as PHV drivers to support themselves and / or family.  In that case, more PHV will be on the road.  I noticed that some of the PHV drivers are in fact quite highly trained professionals (ex). Working as PHV driver currently due to some reorg / restructuring in their previous company.

true, but that's worse isn't it?

a classic case of 僧多粥少.... many jobless or retrenched turn to PHV, but the number of PHV passengers decline

it can turn into a vicious cycle, and that is scary

[Jamesc]

In regards to COE and PHV.

If during a recession more professionals turn to driving PHV then if they have their own car they will not be rent or buying a new car just to drive PHVs.

So if they don't need to rent no demand for rental companies to buy more cars and pump up COEs.

The reason the rental companies were so aggressive in the past is people without cars needed to rent from them as they don't have a car.

😀 

[LinusLoh_1967]

52 minutes ago, Jamesc said:

In regards to COE and PHV.

If during a recession more professionals turn to driving PHV then if they have their own car they will not be rent or buying a new car just to drive PHVs.

So if they don't need to rent no demand for rental companies to buy more cars and pump up COEs.

The reason the rental companies were so aggressive in the past is people without cars needed to rent from them as they don't have a car.

😀

Makes sense...this

[Twich]

4 hours ago, Jamesc said:

In regards to COE and PHV.

If during a recession more professionals turn to driving PHV then if they have their own car they will not be rent or buying a new car just to drive PHVs.

So if they don't need to rent no demand for rental companies to buy more cars and pump up COEs.

The reason the rental companies were so aggressive in the past is people without cars needed to rent from them as they don't have a car.

😀

Something to share. Just read an advertisement.  A 2 years leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$95/day.

Then, a  1 year leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$99/day.

When a recession hit, more will turn to public transport.

By the way, Grab is cutting down drivers' incentives.

In addition, there is a rumor that MAS is aligning all car loan term.

In short, no more 100% loan.

 

 

Edited September 21, 2019 by Twich

[Ct3833]

49 minutes ago, Twich said:

Something to share. Just read an advertisement.  A 2 years leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$95/day.

Then, a  1 year leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$99/day.

When a recession hit, more will turn to public transport.

By the way, Grab is cutting down drivers' incentives.

In addition, there is a rumor that MAS is aligning all car loan term.

In short, no more 100% loan.

 

 

$99 per day is equivalent to $36k a year, that is a lot of rental to pay.

Whatever MAS does will not adversely impacting COE price, so no worries about it.

[Cheefarn]

On 9/21/2019 at 8:27 AM, Scion said:

 

but u only consider the supply factor... if really economy tanks and unemployment rate shoots up, will there be as much demand for PHVs as now?

surely people will become more prudent in choosing their transport mode... it's much cheaper taking bus or MRT

if demand drops that much, will companies still expand their PHV fleet and let them sit idle?

Just look at LCR, Uber sold that rental arm off and they were on the brink of going bankrupt after that. What do u see now? Not only they didn't die, they went on shopping spree to replaced their crashed or abused beyond repair models too. 

If they have got too much cars on their hands, they can always sell them off just like b4. 

The really rich ones are not affected by the local economy. They maybe residing in SG but few if any of their income sources are directly from SG market.  

[Cheefarn]

On 9/21/2019 at 8:30 PM, Twich said:

Something to share. Just read an advertisement.  A 2 years leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$95/day.

Then, a  1 year leasing contract Toyota Noah Hybrid is S$99/day.

When a recession hit, more will turn to public transport.

By the way, Grab is cutting down drivers' incentives.

In addition, there is a rumor that MAS is aligning all car loan term.

In short, no more 100% loan.

 

 

$36k a year is hell lot of money to keep a Voxy trio. 

And I believe this fig is only valid if u meet their so called min trips requirement, else its a lot higher

Only in SG where we have people renting cars to do PHV. No other SE Asia country that I been to that offers Grab services have such nonsense. Their Grab cars are their own cars, and their local transport dept didn't impose SMLJ  Z10 commerical ins which does NOTHING except commanding twice the ins premiums from the poor PHV driver. Grab is worth the effort in those countries. In SG, you end up working for TWO companies before u can even earn your 1st $$. 

[Ody_2004]

13 minutes ago, Cheefarn said:

$36k a year is hell lot of money to keep a Voxy trio. 

And I believe this fig is only valid if u meet their so called min trips requirement, else its a lot higher

Only in SG where we have people renting cars to do PHV. No other SE Asia country that I been to that offers Grab services have such nonsense. Their Grab cars are their own cars, and their local transport dept didn't impose SMLJ  Z10 commerical ins which does NOTHING except commanding twice the ins premiums from the poor PHV driver. Grab is worth the effort in those countries. In SG, you end up working for TWO companies before u can even earn your 1st $$. 

Well said!

Initially the idea is to SHARE resources (car pooling)... now is ADDING resources..

Not just the PHV are affected.. we drivers are too with the increased in ERP charges.. This added resources ply the road more which caused more traffic.. 

recently i got to talk to 4 PHV drivers as my car in workshop.. all said earning had came down... gone are the days of $10,000.. with rental abt $90 (Hybrid models) they are feeling the pinch..

The whole population of taxis and PHV numbers just don justify our population... 

[LesterF]

On 9/18/2019 at 4:13 PM, intelormental said:

Damn it. Outbid by $90. 😡😡

Me too, very disappointment. You booked a Subaru?

[LesterF]

On 9/18/2019 at 3:18 PM, icez118 said:

Maybe LTA should just shorten to 0.5 day bidding date since the action only occurs last 15 mins 

Totally agree. 

[Jamesc]

On 9/23/2019 at 9:14 AM, Ody_2004 said:

Well said!

Initially the idea is to SHARE resources (car pooling)... now is ADDING resources..

Not just the PHV are affected.. we drivers are too with the increased in ERP charges.. This added resources ply the road more which caused more traffic.. 

recently i got to talk to 4 PHV drivers as my car in workshop.. all said earning had came down... gone are the days of $10,000.. with rental abt $90 (Hybrid models) they are feeling the pinch..

The whole population of taxis and PHV numbers just don justify our population... 

Another good post. 

[Ody_2004]

20 hours ago, Jamesc said:

Another good post. 

wah... time must be bad... first time i heard on radio Lion City Car Rental run a advert.. dunno what promotion wor..

[Scion]

On 9/23/2019 at 9:14 AM, Ody_2004 said:

Well said!

Initially the idea is to SHARE resources (car pooling)... now is ADDING resources..

Not just the PHV are affected.. we drivers are too with the increased in ERP charges.. This added resources ply the road more which caused more traffic.. 

recently i got to talk to 4 PHV drivers as my car in workshop.. all said earning had came down... gone are the days of $10,000.. with rental abt $90 (Hybrid models) they are feeling the pinch..

The whole population of taxis and PHV numbers just don justify our population... 

You mean they were previously earning 10k a month?

 

Damn, why am I working so hard in office 😂

[intelormental]

On 9/25/2019 at 10:48 AM, LesterF said:

Me too, very disappointment. You booked a Subaru?

Yes a Subaru. AD offered CAT E at no additional cost. I accepted. Already collecting this weekend.