Three Kingdoms Discussion: Was Zhuge Liang Wrong to Launch 5 Northern Expeditions on Wei?

[wangxiaodi]

This thread is purely based on historical version of 3 Kingdoms, and not the novel part.

After liu bei passed away in 222AD, he handed shu kingdom to his son liu shan and also zhuge liang and Li Yan. But Zhuge liang still holds most power and authority.

during his tenure, he advocated military confrontation against wei for at least 5 major times. And all his military expedition was failures.

Was Zhuge liang correct in embarking on offensive military campaigns against a much strong opponents? Or could he have just employed a more inward growing and adopted a wait and see kinda approach? Would that have resulted in Shu lasting longer or grew stronger in the long run?

 

 

 

[Krieger]

In my opinion, he is right to do it. If he take an inward approach, SHU would have collapsed (overrun by WEI). The 5 exp is not to win battles, but to deter WEI. He knew SHU cannot take WEI.

 

[wangxiaodi]

43 minutes ago, Krieger said:

In my opinion, he is right to do it. If he take an inward approach, SHU would have collapsed (overrun by WEI). The 5 exp is not to win battles, but to deter WEI. He knew SHU cannot take WEI.

 

Well, personal opinion is that, he was doing all that thing for himself. Just a very narrow minded perspective. The Shu kingdom was never a stablized one in the first place. Because it was predominantly oiccupied by 3 spheres of influence. 1st was the original group of Shu people that was already there before liu zhang and his gang came in. Then it was the liu zhang fractions and the old guards like huang quan, li yan etc. Lastly when liu bei and his own men entered and claimed yi province, he also brought in his own clicks of men. This trinity of influence was never really resolved till the end of shu kingdom. And after Liu bei passed away, zhuge liang knew he was being pushed into a very awkward and precarious position. Liu Bei on the surface "gave" zhuge liang" shu, but in actual fact, liu bei wanted him to be at the front to protect his young son, liu shan. 

And zhuge liang knew he need to "make" shu people knew the importance and the necessary of his existence in shu. The only way to do it is to create a so called common goal or common enemy, which was Wei. This was the only way to consolidate his own status and position in shu and at the same time making him indispensable. I would assumed his personality is someone who saw the need to do something outward to create that importance, which most politicians will do. And if shu sit in a position of non-confrontational, and not utilizing military might outwards, very soon, the unstable shu fractions will see less importance of him. 

Wei after Liu Bei died, never once attacked Shu. In fact Wei went to war with Wu more. So the notion of detering them via offensive means is not very strong. He could have expedite inward growth and consolidated this growth for future "chance". Instead of using 100k men to attack 400 or 500k enemy, why not save this 100k men and hope it will grow to 180k or 200k men within 4 to 5 years? By then, even if Wei come, they would be stronger to fight against them. And they can actually improve on their inward defense like fortifying the walls, or train up the soldiers or unearth and attracts more talents into shu, which was what they were lacking during the latter years.

If he just seat back and start working on the inside, he would not have died so early. He might have lived at least 5 to 10 years longer and these 5 to 10 years, so much more could have been done to Shu's foundations for any invasion later to come.

still, above was purely based on my personal opinion.  

[SuPerBoRed]

16 minutes ago, wangxiaodi said:

why not save this 100k men and hope it will grow to 180k or 200k men within 4 to 5 years?

biologically baffling...  lol 
just saying 

[Beregond]

33 minutes ago, wangxiaodi said:

Well, personal opinion is that, he was doing all that thing for himself. Just a very narrow minded perspective. The Shu kingdom was never a stablized one in the first place. Because it was predominantly oiccupied by 3 spheres of influence. 1st was the original group of Shu people that was already there before liu zhang and his gang came in. Then it was the liu zhang fractions and the old guards like huang quan, li yan etc. Lastly when liu bei and his own men entered and claimed yi province, he also brought in his own clicks of men. This trinity of influence was never really resolved till the end of shu kingdom. And after Liu bei passed away, zhuge liang knew he was being pushed into a very awkward and precarious position. Liu Bei on the surface "gave" zhuge liang" shu, but in actual fact, liu bei wanted him to be at the front to protect his young son, liu shan. 

And zhuge liang knew he need to "make" shu people knew the importance and the necessary of his existence in shu. The only way to do it is to create a so called common goal or common enemy, which was Wei. This was the only way to consolidate his own status and position in shu and at the same time making him indispensable. I would assumed his personality is someone who saw the need to do something outward to create that importance, which most politicians will do. And if shu sit in a position of non-confrontational, and not utilizing military might outwards, very soon, the unstable shu fractions will see less importance of him. 

Wei after Liu Bei died, never once attacked Shu. In fact Wei went to war with Wu more. So the notion of detering them via offensive means is not very strong. He could have expedite inward growth and consolidated this growth for future "chance". Instead of using 100k men to attack 400 or 500k enemy, why not save this 100k men and hope it will grow to 180k or 200k men within 4 to 5 years? By then, even if Wei come, they would be stronger to fight against them. And they can actually improve on their inward defense like fortifying the walls, or train up the soldiers or unearth and attracts more talents into shu, which was what they were lacking during the latter years.

If he just seat back and start working on the inside, he would not have died so early. He might have lived at least 5 to 10 years longer and these 5 to 10 years, so much more could have been done to Shu's foundations for any invasion later to come.

still, above was purely based on my personal opinion.  

but if u think another direction, wei did not attack shu even once, cos they know they cannot win, they need to eat the weakest wu first then got enough str to fight shu.

shu had the strongest army so its natural they will launch attack first. during the olden day warring period, if u are strong u attack and take land, u dun wait.

its proven when ZGL pass away and wei become strongest, they attack shu at once.

[wangxiaodi]

38 minutes ago, Beregond said:

but if u think another direction, wei did not attack shu even once, cos they know they cannot win, they need to eat the weakest wu first then got enough str to fight shu.

shu had the strongest army so its natural they will launch attack first. during the olden day warring period, if u are strong u attack and take land, u dun wait.

its proven when ZGL pass away and wei become strongest, they attack shu at once.

Well, Liu Bei's shu was at their strongest during when they had Jing, Yi provinces and Han Zhong. At that time, Sun Quan and Cao Cao suddenly became ally as they both were afraid of the growing Shu. Their land force was fearsome. Maybe at that time, they could have a combined army strength of at least 200k or more (just estimate). But that was just their peak. They could be considered stronger than Sun Quan's Wu at their peak but still inferior to Cao Wei. 

Cao Wei all along was the strongest and they could easily amass half a million men to fight any war (if they want).

After liu bei lose big time in the battle of yi ling to lu xun, the shu's military strength was greatly reduced. I do not know how much shu army perished in the battle of yiling, but it sure took a big toll on them. i estimated easily 30k to 40k men died in the lost of yiling. When Zhuge Liang took over, even though he managed to regain some of the military strength back, they were never the same as before. During ZGL time, maybe shu's army was at best 120k to 150k. This could be an over estimate but there about.And Wei would have had easily 400k to 500k (not surprised if they have many more). And Sun Quan during that time could have 300k to 350k. 

So why Wei did not really attacked Shu? Definitely not because Wei was weaker and Shu was strongest. Cao Cao shifted his focus on in-building after the great defeat of Chi Bi. Even though, as mentioned above, Cao Wei has no problem gathering 400-500k men for war due to the vast superior population and resources of central plain, northern china and north west china. And it Cao Wei knew it would not be easy to really attack Shu and totally conquer them as Shu was a good place to play defensive strategy. Furthermore, they still had Wu at the south east. Even if your army is the biggest among the 3, when you split it into many parcels, it will become weak. probably they need to place 200 to 300k at the south east to fence off Wu and another 100 to 150k at West to fence of Shu. They still need some soldier at the north and some at the central plain too. 

 

[Robin]

ZGL's boss LB, also insisted Shu attack Wei as he wanted revenge. So ZGL follow orders loh

and anyway Shu didnt enjoy any geographical advantages. Geo advantage at that point of time is very impt hence they got no choice but to try to expand their territory

 

[Sosaria]

My thinking is that Liu Shan was hopeless, but ZGL was still beholden to the royal family, as to take over completely would mean he be branded a "traitor" and "usurper" - not very confucian values.

 

Operating under such circumstances, I think very difficult for ZGL to make good decisions.

 

Blame Liu Bei, he threw the baby Liu Shan to the ground and probably cause some head injury, brain damage!

[Daniu82]

I am replying based on my knowledgeable on the 2 RoTK drama series. Shu is easy to defend becos of its terrain, so Wei wouldn't wan to risk it. Liu Bei lost many soldiers during the battle of Yiling for revenge purpose (big wrong here). Many of the good Shu generals didn't lived long.  ZGL needs to attack Wei to show they are not easy for the taking, I think he knows he wouldn't be able to defeat Wei unless something special happens. At the last part, Liu Shan listens to the wrong person and eventually causes downfall of Shu.   

[Angcheek]

5 hours ago, wangxiaodi said:

This thread is purely based on historical version of 3 Kingdoms, and not the novel part.

After liu bei passed away in 222AD, he handed shu kingdom to his son liu shan and also zhuge liang and Li Yan. But Zhuge liang still holds most power and authority.

during his tenure, he advocated military confrontation against wei for at least 5 major times. And all his military expedition was failures.

Was Zhuge liang correct in embarking on offensive military campaigns against a much strong opponents? Or could he have just employed a more inward growing and adopted a wait and see kinda approach? Would that have resulted in Shu lasting longer or grew stronger in the long run?

 

 

 

 

are you a History student ?  Start such a difficult topic 

[wangxiaodi]

1 hour ago, Sosaria said:

My thinking is that Liu Shan was hopeless, but ZGL was still beholden to the royal family, as to take over completely would mean he be branded a "traitor" and "usurper" - not very confucian values.

 

Operating under such circumstances, I think very difficult for ZGL to make good decisions.

 

Blame Liu Bei, he threw the baby Liu Shan to the ground and probably cause some head injury, brain damage!

Well, maybe this is based on novel bah. Whether liu shan was really thrown to the ground and caused him to be low iq..or if liu shan was really so nerd, we will never know, since none of us were really there. I guess it was true that LB screwed up everything.. And left a pile of shit to Zgl. Zgl also knew the foundation and power was not strong within the inner shu regime yet. When LB squandered large amount of shu army and resources.. And he himself died at the same time made the shaky regime even more vulnerable. Zgl also knew it one. So he also knew he got a pile of shit from his former master.. 

And if he was really smart, he would have known that using 100k to fight a much stronger 400 to 500k and hoping to snick a surprise win.. Its unlikely.. Unless he is really not as wise as we thought.. He was just a good administrator that's all? 

[wangxiaodi]

22 minutes ago, Angcheek said:

 

are you a History student ?  Start such a difficult topic 

I am just someone who love history.. And especially China history.. I am still learning and listening and reading.. 

[wangxiaodi]

1 hour ago, Daniu82 said:

I am replying based on my knowledgeable on the 2 RoTK drama series. Shu is easy to defend becos of its terrain, so Wei wouldn't wan to risk it. Liu Bei lost many soldiers during the battle of Yiling for revenge purpose (big wrong here). Many of the good Shu generals didn't lived long.  ZGL needs to attack Wei to show they are not easy for the taking, I think he knows he wouldn't be able to defeat Wei unless something special happens. At the last part, Liu Shan listens to the wrong person and eventually causes downfall of Shu.   

So I guess Zgl also knew all these. And if he just wanted to show or test water and hope. Sometimes surprising happened, he would have just 1 or 2 expedition on wei. But after 1st and 2nd failed. Still went on with 3rd,4th and 5th..using practically same route and strategy... I seriously have huge doubt over his intelligence..it was no wrong to try and take a few risks in war and business.. But to keep going for 5 to 6 times.. At the expense of entire kingdom..hmm..

Like I mentioned earlier.. Save the 100k fighting adult men.. And allow the younger ones, those 8 to 12 years old boys to come of age. Within 5 to 6 years.. These generation of 8nto 12 years would have grown up. And maybe another 20 to 30k young and able men? Continue this to grow internally and work closely with wu kingdom. Since shu is easier to defend, why not grow from inside out and when the time is ripe. 

 

[Angcheek]

3 hours ago, SuPerBoRed said:

biologically baffling...  lol 
just saying 

 

hmmm so the question is , was it good to be MAN  ? 

[Angcheek]

There are many reasons why CaoCao didnt kill off SHU .... ☺️ even when they got the chance. 

 

[Beregond]

28 minutes ago, wangxiaodi said:

Well, maybe this is based on novel bah. Whether liu shan was really thrown to the ground and caused him to be low iq..or if liu shan was really so nerd, we will never know, since none of us were really there. I guess it was true that LB screwed up everything.. And left a pile of shit to Zgl. Zgl also knew the foundation and power was not strong within the inner shu regime yet. When LB squandered large amount of shu army and resources.. And he himself died at the same time made the shaky regime even more vulnerable. Zgl also knew it one. So he also knew he got a pile of shit from his former master.. 

And if he was really smart, he would have known that using 100k to fight a much stronger 400 to 500k and hoping to snick a surprise win.. Its unlikely.. Unless he is really not as wise as we thought.. He was just a good administrator that's all? 

ya, its history so long ago. all of this is theory only.

but like u say, the novel influence alot of stuff  like liu bei is the good guys and caocao is the bad 1. 

[Daniu82]

5 minutes ago, Angcheek said:

There are many reasons why CaoCao didnt kill off SHU .... ☺️ even when they got the chance. 

 

Maybe it will upset the balance

[wangxiaodi]

20 minutes ago, Beregond said:

ya, its history so long ago. all of this is theory only.

but like u say, the novel influence alot of stuff  like liu bei is the good guys and caocao is the bad 1. 

Many historians and based on historical records steered to the facts that cao cao initially was the few people who truly want to serve and restore han dynasty. He was the only one dared to attack dong zhuo 's army and got defeated, while the other warlords just sit and see. 

There were no records to state that he treated the han emperor badly, but the otherwise came From the shu-influenced source. Maybe in his later years, he grew more Ambitious and was tempted by greed and titles.. That drove him to become more evil. 

Liu bei to me, he might be as bad as his son liu shan. He never really won any major battle and was constantly losing battle and running away from his enemies for most part of his life before the chi bi. 

Even when he got yi, jing and hanzhong, he lose it to a younger and relatively unknown lu xun...