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Singapore factory output posts 9.3% shock drop in Nov


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SINGAPORE'S factory output in November saw a plunge steeper than private-sector economists had feared, according to preliminary numbers out on Thursday.

Industrial production fell by 9.3 per cent year on year, reversing the growth spike in the month before, even amid year-end hopes that the manufacturing sector was bottoming out. Watchers polled by Bloomberg were expecting a much milder decline of 0.8 per cent.

The volatile biomedical manufacturing cluster careened into the red, losing 10.3 per cent year on year after expanding by 24.1 per cent in the month prior.

The Economic Development Board (EDB) attributed the decrease to “a different mix of active pharmaceutical ingredients and biological products” and lower export demand for medical devices.

When biomedical manufacturing was excluded from the data, industrial production fell by 9 per cent. Still, the contraction was led by electronics, which swung back into negative territory on worsening performances in the key semiconductor segment and in computer peripherals.

The cluster has been battered on structural issues such as a high base and a cooling global cycle, as well as the fallout from the trade and tech war between the US and China.

Electronics output was down by 20.9 per cent in November, even though October growth ticked up by a hair’s breadth, from 0.4 per cent to 0.9 per cent, amid a milder semiconductor dip.

Semiconductors lost 25.7 per cent in November, compared with 0.2 per cent the month before, while computer peripherals shed 31.8 per cent, reversing the earlier growth of 3.7 per cent.

Otherwise, smaller electronics segments - data storage, infocomms and consumer electronics, and other electronic modules and components - improved.

The chemicals cluster’s output fell by 10 per cent, slightly deeper than the previous month’s 9.4 per cent drop, on a broad-based decline that was not helped by maintenance shutdowns in petrochemical plants, where production plunged by 17.8 per cent year on year.

General manufacturing also retreated into a 1.5 per cent contraction, after growing by 3.8 per cent in October, as shrinking output for food, beverages and tobacco, and printing, shredded the gains made by clothes and construction-related goods in the miscellaneous industries segment.

Just two clusters were in the black year on year, although both marked gains against October.

The pace of precision engineering growth picked up from 3.6 per cent to 9.7 per cent, as front-end semiconductor and mechanical engineering drove machinery and systems out, and the precision modules and components segment churned out more parts such as dies, moulds and optical parts.

For its part, transport engineering moved from a 4.9 per cent contraction to a 2.1 per cent expansion, as repair and maintenance work from commercial airlines drove the aerospace segment, despite continued negativity in the land and marine and offshore industries.

On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output dropped by 9.4 per cent in November, or 8.4 per cent when the biomedical cluster was left out.

Meanwhile, the EDB, which compiles the monthly statistics, revised October’s growth downwards, from 4 per cent to 3.6 per cent, as transport engineering and general manufacturing did more poorly than initially thought, which eroded improved statistics elsewhere.

Overall, Singapore factory production in the 11 months was down by 1.6 per cent on the year before, or a decline of 4.1 per cent with biomedical manufacturing excluded.

 

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7 minutes ago, Kusje said:

BT can't be fake news? 

It'll be a little hard for "them" to call it fake news since it's under SPH.

Remember who decides what's fake news here.

Besides for this specific article, I don't see any reason to think it's fake. Do you?

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4 minutes ago, Turboflat4 said:

It'll be a little hard for "them" to call it fake news since it's under SPH.

Remember who decides what's fake news here.

Besides for this specific article, I don't see any reason to think it's fake. Do you?

No of course not.

Just saying that BT can also be fake news.

If this news is fake, then it would be faked at the source and not the mouthpiece.

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22 minutes ago, Albeniz said:

A side effect of SGD being too strong? Nobody can afford to buy our goods.

No - high SGD has little impact to our competitiveness.

Rather, you should ask why Trump wanna screw the world economy with his "American First" stupidity...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3018935/singapores-economic-downturn-continues-us-china-trade-war

12donald-trump.jpg

Edited by Wishcumsback
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10 hours ago, Albeniz said:

A side effect of SGD being too strong?

Nobody can afford to buy our goods.

If nobody can buy our goods, where is the demand for sgd from?

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10 hours ago, Wishcumsback said:

No - high SGD has little impact to our competitiveness.

Rather, you should ask why Trump wanna screw the world economy with his "American First" stupidity...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3018935/singapores-economic-downturn-continues-us-china-trade-war

 

Trump is POTUS. Not world president. 

I don't think you want him to become world president do you?

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with Trump anyhow sanction this and sanction that, the trust on the global supply chain by other major countries is severely damaged. Major countries will try to build up their own domestic supply. Sg's manufacturing positions itself at the high-end side of the global supply chain. The Fabs at Woodlands and Tampines produce chips to be consumed in US, Europe and China. Now, with China's determination of semiconductor self-sufficient, the future is doomed for Sg's manufacturing.

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23 minutes ago, Somewhat1975 said:

with Trump anyhow sanction this and sanction that, the trust on the global supply chain by other major countries is severely damaged. Major countries will try to build up their own domestic supply. Sg's manufacturing positions itself at the high-end side of the global supply chain. The Fabs at Woodlands and Tampines produce chips to be consumed in US, Europe and China. Now, with China's determination of semiconductor self-sufficient, the future is doomed for Sg's manufacturing.

China has been looking to be self-sufficient since forever and has nothing to do with the sanctions.

They even made a bid on the woodlands plants some years back but failed.

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23 minutes ago, Kusje said:

China has been looking to be self-sufficient since forever and has nothing to do with the sanctions.

They even made a bid on the woodlands plants some years back but failed.

No doubt China always want to eventually have their semiconductor industry. That is the reason they have SMIC. But their determination changes significantly after the sanction.   Now, the supply of semiconductor chips becomes a national security issue. Hundred of billions will be invested in the next few years. With that kind of investment, overcapacity of fabs will be followed. 

China is not alone.  EU, an ally of the US have its "European technology sovereignty" initiative now. 

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What all these emphasized are the following:

1. we are not immune to market forces

2. we can pay out of this world or universe individuals but they cannot guarantee year in year out growth

3. true we need to rely on foreign talents BUT we need to invest in our local workforce because at the end of the day when things turn for the worse, these foreign talents will leave for greener pasture, those highly paid locals will have no problems migrating or going back to their own country eg Penang

4. we can save for rainy days but we have become so paranoid that we are going to the extreme on many occasions depriving individuals from their freedom to choose what belongs to them

5. Yes we should be forcing citizens to be prudent but authorities need to prudent too and not building white elephants and spending lavishly eg Brompton bicycles etc, why don't we be the first in the world to have Bugatti as police vehicles on our roads

 

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3 hours ago, Kusje said:

Trump is POTUS. Not world president. 

I don't think you want him to become world president do you?

The unfortunate fact is Trump is the president of the world's largest economy and only superpower.

I am very sure many gov, not just SG's, are keenly aware POTUS decisions, be it domestic  or otherwise, will have no-insignificant impact on their countries.

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2 hours ago, Ash2017 said:

What all these emphasized are the following:

1. we are not immune to market forces

2. we can pay out of this world or universe individuals but they cannot guarantee year in year out growth

3. true we need to rely on foreign talents BUT we need to invest in our local workforce because at the end of the day when things turn for the worse, these foreign talents will leave for greener pasture, those highly paid locals will have no problems migrating or going back to their own country eg Penang

4. we can save for rainy days but we have become so paranoid that we are going to the extreme on many occasions depriving individuals from their freedom to choose what belongs to them

5. Yes we should be forcing citizens to be prudent but authorities need to prudent too and not building white elephants and spending lavishly eg Brompton bicycles etc, why don't we be the first in the world to have Bugatti as police vehicles on our roads

 

One thing for sure - high celery of silver service/leaders cannot guarantee good economy.  They are probably not even co-related.

We need good luck!

 

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