COE Bidding – 1st Round of January 2020

[13177]

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

This is mentioned many times last year when COE was at the low then, those who continue to wait would miss the boat. Now the ferry is leaving the berth,  those who continue to procrastinate will miss bigger time moving forward. Unless US and Iran issues get escalated into a war which is unlikely, with the  declining COE quota, price has only one direction to go. The only question is how much more higher it will go. Those who could remember when COE was around 70k to 80k when the quota was real dry in 2013, new cars on the road were mercedes, bmw, audi etc, japanese and korean were nowhere found. Good luck to all.

If coe is going up now, maybe need to wait for it to come down again many years later? 😅 Like when 2013 coe was super high and then it comes down few years later lo.

[Ct3833]

18 minutes ago, 13177 said:

If coe is going up now, maybe need to wait for it to come down again many years later? 😅 Like when 2013 coe was super high and then it comes down few years later lo.

you are correct, and COE going up is  not a matter of if,  question is  how much it will go up.

Look at the table from LTA,  I didnt make up the figures, cars to be due for scrap this year, meaning amount of  COE  for recycle  is about half the  amount of new cars registered in 2019. Next year  will be lesser than this year, 2023 will be the worst  year for both buyers and sellers, there are only 17L COE available for recycle. By then would have been lesser than this figure because most of the B&B cars bought during that year would have been scrapped in advance to cash out the COE value. The only silver lining is to hope that those 5 years COE cars could come in to relief the situation. The next good year to buy car would be 2026 when there would be a bumper crops of COE, assuming ah gong wont change policies. 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Ct3833

[Wormee]

15 hours ago, Dilemma said:

1st scenario is wrong leh. If only 45 bids out of 50 . Means COE will close at $1.

COE is determined by CCP (Current COE Price, which is highest unsucessful bid + $1). It is not so simple if bids are more then the quota.

For his 1st scenario, if 45 bids out of 50 submits $10, the CCP will be $11. But then again, if you/dealer submits the first bid, usually it will be $1 and that is why there was once you get a $2 COE. 

Second scenario, if 55 bids out of 50 submits $10, the first 5 will be outbidded. Assuming all remains which I think will not happen cos if you/dealer are outbidded, you would increase your bid to $11, and another person/dealer bids $12, so on and so forth. Never ending.

My guess if all remains $10, I was wondering if the first 50 pax will get a $11 COE or not and the last 5 unsucessful. That's the complicated part. 

P.S. And hey I got it right. Remain or increase 1K this round. Haha

Cheers!

[Roh96]

12 hours ago, Koreancarsg said:

Why CNY must have brand new car? New or old car, still move point to point to visit friends and relatives ma 😳

Drive new car to visit relatives during CNY jin seh bin. 

[Ct3833]

14 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

Drive new car to visit relatives during CNY jin seh bin. 

You like that say I CNY have to stay at home liao lor. 

[Twich]

13 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

This is mentioned many times last year when COE was at the low then, those who continue to wait would miss the boat. Now the ferry is leaving the berth,  those who continue to procrastinate will miss bigger time moving forward. Unless US and Iran issues get escalated into a war which is unlikely, with the  declining COE quota, price has only one direction to go. The only question is how much more higher it will go. Those who could remember when COE was around 70k to 80k when the quota was real dry in 2013, new cars on the road were mercedes, bmw, audi etc, japanese and korean were nowhere found. Good luck to all

The world has changed compared to 10 years ago.,

Middle East is totally unstable. Plus, the trade war just temporary cool off.

Unless, you have 300K cash in your bank account. Plus, your house has fully paid off. 

Then, Chong for 50K or 60K COE.

By the way, Donald Trump will another 4 years. His mind always flip flop....

Edited January 9, 2020 by Twich

[Twich]

16 hours ago, awhtc said:

A few key reasons for the strong rebound in Cat A.

1. Economic: US-China trade war is subsiding and Singapore's PMI went above 50 in Dec 2019.
2. Supply: COE quota should be significantly reduced in 2020.
3. Demand: Several key new car models (e.g. Altis) launched recently and Chinese New Year.

The world has changed compared to 10 years ago.,

Middle East is totally unstable. Plus, the trade war just temporary cool off.

Unless, you have 300K cash in your bank account. Plus, your house has fully paid off. 

Then, Chong for 50K or 60K COE.

By the way, Donald Trump will another 4 years. His mind always flip flop....

[Cheefarn]

23 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

Drive new car to visit relatives during CNY jin seh bin. 

That applies to other countries these days bro... not us. A certain CNY song whose lyrics mentioned such things applies to SG up to the early 2000s only. 

We take MRT and buses to visit our relatives these days. By the time we reach there, all of us are drenched in sweat... 

Now u know why so many youngsters escaped CNY and went for holidays during this period? Just can't be bothered anymore

[Enye]

58 minutes ago, Ct3833 said:

You like that say I CNY have to stay at home liao lor. 

of course lah...you live in landed and park your 3 pointed star in the porch

even more seh bin when your visitors come

🤗

 

[Mkl22]

12 hours ago, RogerNg_185295 said:

Hao lian. To show off that he or she is doing well

but majority live in apartments. cars are parked downstairs.... also cannot see. only can use mouth to BRAG.

[RogerNg_185295]

Just now, Mkl22 said:

but majority live in apartments. cars are parked downstairs.... also cannot see. only can use mouth to BRAG.

Oh...they can bring relatives and friends down.  That is if they really wanna show off to that extend 

[Mkl22]

1 hour ago, Twich said:

The world has changed compared to 10 years ago.,

Middle East is totally unstable. Plus, the trade war just temporary cool off.

Unless, you have 300K cash in your bank account. Plus, your house has fully paid off. 

Then, Chong for 50K or 60K COE.

By the way, Donald Trump will another 4 years. His mind always flip flop....

i think quite some in MCF more than fulfills the above criteria. Much more than 300k and HouseS paid off. hAHAHA

[Roh96]

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

You like that say I CNY have to stay at home liao lor. 

U have 2 cars, if u drive both cars out during CNY, luggi seh bin.

[Koreancarsg]

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

You like that say I CNY have to stay at home liao lor. 

Drive new car in CNY will bring good luck? Thats why so many people wish to own new car just b4 CNY 😅

[Ct3833]

5 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

U have 2 cars, if u drive both cars out during CNY, luggi seh bin.

you and bro @Enye never suppork me ,  you should know i own one of the cheapest cars on the road- COE Altis, fortunately i thick skin lah, but you all still have to give chance please.😃😃

Edited January 9, 2020 by Ct3833

[Koreancarsg]

4 minutes ago, Roh96 said:

U have 2 cars, if u drive both cars out during CNY, luggi seh bin.

Saw in my HDB estate MSCP, husband and wife each own a Honda Vezel, same colour 😄 really envy but my bank account doesn't allow me to do so 🤢

[Mkl22]

11 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

you are correct, and COE going up is  not a matter of if,  question is  how much it will go up.

Look at the table from LTA,  I didnt make up the figures, cars to be due for scrap this year, meaning amount of  COE  for recycle  is about half the  amount of new cars registered in 2019. Next year  will be lesser than this year, 2023 will be the worst  year for both buyers and sellers, there are only 17L COE available for recycle. By then would have been lesser than this figure because most of the B&B cars bought during that year would have been scrapped in advance to cash out the COE value. The only silver lining is to hope that those 5 years COE cars could come in to relief the situation. The next good year to buy car would be 2026 when there would be a bumper crops of COE, assuming ah gong wont change policies. 

 

 

Thats what everyone thought in 2015,  that the much larger quota numbers in COE from 2016 would result in a large drop in prices. however that didnt really happen. it dropped but not to the expected levels of 20k plus for many. and it also took quite some time to fall. One of the reason which many speculated was due the the ride sharing firms which bidded up the prices to secure the cars.

if you compare the age distribution which you have shown, one can also see a huge drop (10K) from Jan 2019 for 3-4year old to Nov 2019 5-6year old. so quite some 2014-2015 and maybe even 2016 cars are scrapped early.

Thus the bigger reduction in COE quota numbers was actually supposed to happen in 2019, but due to the 2014-2015 cars being scrapped early , it propped the numbers up for a bit longer.

[Mkl22]

6 minutes ago, Ct3833 said:

you and bro @Enye never suppork me ,  you should know i own one of the cheapest cars on the road- COE Altis, fortunately i thick skin lah, but you all still have to give chance please.😃😃

buuuuuutttt, you got ANG MO CHU.... haha