COE bidding - 1st and 2nd round March 2020

[Philipkee]

2 hours ago, mikk123 said:

looking forward to see next COE...

I tot we ALWAYS look forward to see next coe.  How many of us actually plonk down the money is another issue......

[Lufu]

further reduction for next Quarter - May to Jul quota to maintain price.

[Jwee85]

Let say the demand to buy car is still there.

1) Group1 rich sinkies with cash. These potential buyers may just delay their purchase for few months.

2) Group2 above average sinkies worried about jobs. These potential buyers might just delay their purchases till the covid-19 is more or less resolved.

3) Group3 average sinkies but kena retrenched or temporarily on unpaid leave. These group will definately not be buying a new car.

 

Imagine if  these 3 groups of buyers amount to about 4000-5000 numbers, were to delay their purchase. 

This short term curtailment in buying cars might affect the COE bidding.

It means the ADs will likely not have enough 'confirmed contracts with IC number' to exceed the COE quota for the next few bids.

Looking at the past history, if we assume all bidders gets their COE eventually.

We can assume the 200++ overbids by the AD for each categories will be fullfilled within the 6bids cycle. So 200X6=1200bidders. 

If 1500 sinkies were to delay their car purchase during this Covid-19 for Cat.A, then it means the COE may crash soon, as ADs don't have the excess 1200 buyers to spread over the 6bids. 

 

 

 

 

[Jwee85]

2 minutes ago, Jwee85 said:

Let say the demand to buy car is still there.

1) Group1 rich sinkies with cash. These potential buyers may just delay their purchase for few months.

2) Group2 above average sinkies worried about jobs. These potential buyers might just delay their purchases till the covid-19 is more or less resolved.

3) Group3 average sinkies but kena retrenched or temporarily on unpaid leave. These group will definately not be buying a new car.

 

Imagine if  these 3 groups of buyers amount to about 4000-5000 numbers, were to delay their purchase for 3 months. 

This short term curtailment in buying cars might affect the COE bidding.

It means the ADs will likely not have enough 'confirmed contracts with IC number' to exceed the COE quota for the next few bids.

Looking at the past history, if we assume all bidders gets their COE eventually, means all the unsuccessful bids are real and fulfilled.

We can assume the 200++ unsuccessful bids by the AD for each categories are fullfilled within the 6bids cycle. So 200X6=1200bidders, are held in reserves  for  AD to play and game the COE pricing during normal times. 

If 1200 sinkies were to delay their car purchase during this Covid-19 period  for Cat.A, then it means the COE may crash soon, as ADs don't have the excess 1200 buyers to spread over the 6bids. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jwee85

[awhtc]

Those who really need car but got affected by the Covid will turn to a 2nd hand car.

[Cheefarn]

53 minutes ago, Jwee85 said:

Let say the demand to buy car is still there.

1) Group1 rich sinkies with cash. These potential buyers may just delay their purchase for few months.

2) Group2 above average sinkies worried about jobs. These potential buyers might just delay their purchases till the covid-19 is more or less resolved.

3) Group3 average sinkies but kena retrenched or temporarily on unpaid leave. These group will definately not be buying a new car.

 

Imagine if  these 3 groups of buyers amount to about 4000-5000 numbers, were to delay their purchase. 

This short term curtailment in buying cars might affect the COE bidding.

It means the ADs will likely not have enough 'confirmed contracts with IC number' to exceed the COE quota for the next few bids.

Looking at the past history, if we assume all bidders gets their COE eventually.

We can assume the 200++ overbids by the AD for each categories will be fullfilled within the 6bids cycle. So 200X6=1200bidders. 

If 1500 sinkies were to delay their car purchase during this Covid-19 for Cat.A, then it means the COE may crash soon, as ADs don't have the excess 1200 buyers to spread over the 6bids. 

 

 

 

 

You forgot to factor in the PHV rental companies who will bid aggressively now to take adv of the lower COE prices. They need to expand and renew and replace their fleet ya.

[Enye]

16 minutes ago, Cheefarn said:

You forgot to factor in the PHV rental companies who will bid aggressively now to take adv of the lower COE prices. They need to expand and renew and replace their fleet ya.

these companies have been unprofitable and burning cash since startup

they still can expand aggressively in these extraordinary circumstances?

you sure boh? 

cdg and other taxi companies also expanding and renewing their taxi fleet?

🤣

[Cheefarn]

2 hours ago, Enye said:

these companies have been unprofitable and burning cash since startup

they still can expand aggressively in these extraordinary circumstances?

you sure boh? 

cdg and other taxi companies also expanding and renewing their taxi fleet?

🤣

Why not? They need to replace their cars that were bought with high COE... even though they may be replacing them with the exact same model.

And you also know how many of these brand new cars were destroyed by some blur and reckless PHV drivers along the way. These cars need to be replaced too. 

PHV companies still have enough cash from investor to burn for the moment. 

Taxi renewals have no impact on our COE prices for they are paying PQP.. They can renew 20000 units in one go also can. 

We shall see. I still say both Cat A and B will remain in the low 30ks till 3rd quarter of this year. And Cat A premiums will cost more than Cat B. You pay more to get less, that's what sg is famous for anyway. 

 

 

[Sdf4786k]

4 hours ago, Jwee85 said:

Let say the demand to buy car is still there.

1) Group1 rich sinkies with cash. These potential buyers may just delay their purchase for few months.

2) Group2 above average sinkies worried about jobs. These potential buyers might just delay their purchases till the covid-19 is more or less resolved.

3) Group3 average sinkies but kena retrenched or temporarily on unpaid leave. These group will definately not be buying a new car.

Imagine if  these 3 groups of buyers amount to about 4000-5000 numbers, were to delay their purchase. 

This short term curtailment in buying cars might affect the COE bidding.

It means the ADs will likely not have enough 'confirmed contracts with IC number' to exceed the COE quota for the next few bids.

Looking at the past history, if we assume all bidders gets their COE eventually.

We can assume the 200++ overbids by the AD for each categories will be fullfilled within the 6bids cycle. So 200X6=1200bidders. 

If 1500 sinkies were to delay their car purchase during this Covid-19 for Cat.A, then it means the COE may crash soon, as ADs don't have the excess 1200 buyers to spread over the 6bids. 

dont forget..

at least 60 % of iron rice bowl also got pay cut.

 

[Lufu]

Hoping to buy massive firesale COE. wonder if this will be derailed by all the surging stock market and positive China data. Fingers crossed 

[Skyline6]

Hey, no bidding this week? So is next week?

[Lotr]

1 hour ago, Skyline6 said:

Hey, no bidding this week? So is next week?

yup next week

[Lotr]

4 hours ago, Cheefarn said:

Why not? They need to replace their cars that were bought with high COE... even though they may be replacing them with the exact same model.

And you also know how many of these brand new cars were destroyed by some blur and reckless PHV drivers along the way. These cars need to be replaced too. 

PHV companies still have enough cash from investor to burn for the moment. 

Taxi renewals have no impact on our COE prices for they are paying PQP.. They can renew 20000 units in one go also can. 

We shall see. I still say both Cat A and B will remain in the low 30ks till 3rd quarter of this year. And Cat A premiums will cost more than Cat B. You pay more to get less, that's what sg is famous for anyway. 

 

 

If they replace their car, then the coe will return to the system.

anyway, I hope Cat B drop

Edited March 31, 2020 by Lotr

[Jamesc]

4 minutes ago, Lotr said:

If they replace their car, then the coe will return to the system.

anyway, I hope Cat B drop

Cat A too

I getting Bezza for my MIL.

[Wildfaye29]

1 hour ago, Jamesc said:

Cat A too

I getting Bezza for my MIL.

Too luxurious and too expensive la.

A straw mat down a sink hole better, yea?

Edited March 31, 2020 by Wildfaye29
Typo

[Goldenvodka]

Hopes for Bezza or Axia to hit 30k-40k range? 🙂

[Philipkee]

22 hours ago, Jamesc said:

Cat A too

I getting Bezza for my MIL.

Cat A too.

Less then 10 K I buy my Honda city. 

More than 10 k I think some more.

If it stays high for years I think I just buy the honda city sticker can liao.  Tiagong its cheaper to talk about buying honda city here every day then to actually buy one if coe is very high.

[Kangadrool]

On 3/29/2020 at 11:18 AM, Scion said:

a lot of chain effect now...

shops not allowed to open

-> employees on unpaid leaves or retrenched

-> owners can't pay rents

-> landlords can't service bank loans

the snowballing effect will be very obvious in the next 2 months

i'll be very surprised if COEs can rise or even maintain at current levels

Nothing is impossible. Just like petrol tax increase during the drastic drop of crude few years back....

Now they may escalate car light policy by invoking same logic. LOL.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Kangadrool