COVID-19 Outbreak: 313 Confirmed Cases in SG, 117 Discharged, 15 Critical (18 Mar)

[BenTong]

48 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

LW just said based on 17,000 cases in China, 82% have mild symptoms, 15% have severe symptoms and 3% have critical symptoms. He also said this COVID-19 is infectious like H1N1.

If I take the number of local H1N1 infections of 500k, and apply 15+3%=18%, 90,000 people with COVID-19 will need hospital resources.

As of 2016, we only have 15,000 public and private hospital beds, which is only 17% of the 90,000. 

Is my maths correct? If I'm right, should we try our best to curtail the spread of this COVID-19?

Only 1,200 cases in la. The rest Norma flu lor.. 18 kaput

[Unltd]

41 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

LW just said based on 17,000 cases in China, 82% have mild symptoms, 15% have severe symptoms and 3% have critical symptoms. He also said this COVID-19 is infectious like H1N1.

If I take the number of local H1N1 infections of 500k, and apply 15+3%=18%, 90,000 people with COVID-19 will need hospital resources.

As of 2016, we only have 15,000 public and private hospital beds, which is only 17% of the 90,000. 

Is my maths correct? If I'm right, should we try our best to curtail the spread of this COVID-19?

There’s a factor that needs to be added into the equation, how many days before symptoms appear before the virus is contagious, if at all? 

Because H1N1 is contagious about 1 day before the symptoms appear, SARS is contagious only post symptoms and much more contagious after major symptoms when viral load is higher, the question now is how contagious and how many days during incubation period is COVID-19 contagious?

The more “untraceable” it is:

Con: The more contagious it seems to be during incubation period

Pro: People who are infected may fight it off with their own immune system before any symptoms appear

I don’t think we can get statistics to determine the above for China, but pretty sure we can for Singapore with the way we are tracing, hence the next few days to 2 weeks is pretty critical to determine how we can “fight” this effectively, because if our medical facilities are overwhelmed, we would need to ensure patients stay home during the milder symptoms and hope majority of them fight it off.

 

[mersaylee]

11 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

90k😱

Our NCID only got 330 bed.

#singaporeaddoil

Double decker with pull out bed configuration is 990 beds 

still not enuf 😅

[Unltd]

3 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Wuhan got from 60 cases (like us today) to 60,000 cases (maybe more unreported) in a matter of weeks. Virus don't spread equally between each month.

And we are more like wuhan than outside wuhan if virus begins to spread without any sort of curtailment. People will be turned away from treatment to die at home.

Don't be complacent.

The weather in China is low, places are generally damp or wet, viruses survive much more easily in the environment than Singapore, this is turning out to be a big factor. Good thing for Singapore don’t have 4 seasons and are not in a “winter” period.

[Thaiyotakamli]

Leeder must show healthy no need wear mask

 

[Arogab]

18 minutes ago, mersaylee said:

Haven’t driven a merci for a long while 

maybe next ride though

bo lui...only preloved one

Ok, next time ride one tell me

[Weez911]

2 minutes ago, Unltd said:

The weather in China is low, places are generally damp or wet, viruses survive much more easily in the environment than Singapore, this is turning out to be a big factor. Good thing for Singapore don’t have 4 seasons and are not in a “winter” period.

I'm using H1N1 figures in singapore bro. 

[inlinesix]

🤭

[Weez911]

7 minutes ago, Wind30 said:

I am not saying what will happen or not happen. I am just pointing out the H1N1 numbers you used to substantiate your views are calculated wrongly. 

If our govt thinks like you, we will end up with 16m masks for 5.5m people.

Oh, wait.

[Thaiyotakamli]

41 minutes ago, Jamesc said:

No one wants to go holiday there anyway.

They can ban ban all they want.

Korea and Japan don't ban us please.

I want to go holiday to both this year.

U so good bring along ur MIL to japan and korea

[BenTong]

12 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Wuhan got from 60 cases (like us today) to 60,000 cases (maybe more unreported) in a matter of weeks. Virus don't spread equally between each month.

And we are more like wuhan than outside wuhan if virus begins to spread without any sort of curtailment. People will be turned away from treatment to die at home.

Don't be complacent.

Wa leow .. like that better leave SG dy la

[Weez911]

16 minutes ago, Wind30 said:

people already pointed out your maths is way off. The 500k case don't come at once...

u need to divide the 90k by the duration of the H1N1 outbreak, 10 months and time spent in hospital. probably off by a factor of 20 assuming each of them stay in hospital for 2 weeks. that is around 4k. 

I assume even spread of 10 months which is probably too optimistic but your assumption that all the 500k appear at once is way way wrong.

Your calculation assumes these severe and critical patients will recover and discharge in 1 month. That is way way way wrong.

[steveluv]

3 hours ago, kobayashiGT said:

I don't think we have a mask manufacturing plant here in Singapore. But we do have test-kit for the corona virus now. So I think in time to come, we will barter trade with some countries for supplies. win-win situation.

I’m ignorant about test-kit developed by Singapore thanks for your post. Went to google indeed 6 days ago already have the news. Steady lah Singapore. 👍👍👍

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-made-in-singapore-diagnostics-test-implemented-at-hospitals-here

[inlinesix]

11 minutes ago, Unltd said:

The weather in China is low, places are generally damp or wet, viruses survive much more easily in the environment than Singapore, this is turning out to be a big factor. Good thing for Singapore don’t have 4 seasons and are not in a “winter” period.

Our air cond is no different from weather in temperate country.

High humidity only happens in coastal area. Inland all dry dry 1.

Some experts said the virus survive well in cool and dry condition 

[Arogab]

46 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

Even Thailand ban surgical mask export since yesterday.

Taiwan has simple philosophy of cure oneself before you cure others.

Look at HK. Even HCW don’t have enough surgical mask

Well, each country has their own Gov

[Wind30]

5 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Your calculation assumes these severe and critical patients will recover and discharge in 1 month. That is way way way wrong.

... sigh, if you read my maths I assume 0.5 months...

that number can be corrected when more accurate numbers come out.

I am just correcting your methodology (you assumed people don't get discharged..), both you and I don't have the right numbers so it is pointless arguing about what numbers to use.

 

[PSP415]

There it goes again.

Airborne? Wont be just this numbers. Probably alot more by now. Common sense. Even surgical masks not effective. Viruses can enter the eyes and ears too right?

N95? 😂😂😂yes, definitely must have for those on the frontline and all medical health workers pls plus the full gear cos they will have more instances of coming into contact with those already in isolation, quarantine and those going in for tests.

There are inconsiderate ppl still, with masks on but going around sneezing and coughing. How they do it? Lift up the mask first then set it down over their nose, mouth and chin🤬🤬🤬. Personally saw 2 over the past weeks. But they could be having common flu and cough. Viruses no bring ID or stamp their names on foreheads of sick ppl.

But yes, masked so ok to move about mah. Sick oso never mind.

Sick pls see doctor then stay home. More sicker then pls dun wait go hospital. This is the right time to wear masks - to protect others from you.

Whatever it is, there are ways to make washable and reusable masks. Do make 3 for ownself and gather other family members to do together as a project. Dun everything also must wait for govt to give free or source. 

Whatever can be done to help oneself, do it. Kpkb also heaven wont send masks down. 

Still have 420 plus to come in to reach 0.02%. Wishing all speedy recovery. It is good that affected ones are mending and some are discharged. This virus can be fought against. 

Its your strong immunity that is the antidote for now. Build up. Sleep and rest well. Dun worry over things u cannot control. U will only be rocking to and fro, in a rocking chair. Zero contribution to your immunity. Eat proper meals whether home cooked or outside. Must eat ya. 

Churches are super huggy places. Handshakes are so common and spontaneous in any church, especially with long time friends. Hugs too are fondly given amongst sisters. Touch. That's the main contact.

So, if not sure wear masks. Run out? Make your own. It beats whinning like babies when all are supposedly very cleverer than alot of clever ppl. Pls masked up once done. We can do with less fear spreading and useless kpkb.

Take care of immunity ya. We will overcome this Covid-19. But need a cool head and calm heart.

Cheers 

 

[Unltd]

7 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

Our air cond is no different from weather in temperate country.

High humidity only happens in coastal area. Inland all dry dry 1.

Some experts said the virus survive well in cool and dry condition 

I had been going to non air con places as much as we can, makan also no air con places....