Ct3833 Supersonic February 16, 2020 Share February 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Turboflat4 said: Sorry, but your analysis is naive. You used a basic reproductive number of 3 (reasonable based on current estimates) but you seem to assume an infinite population of susceptibles. A proper mathematical model would be to divide the population into compartments like the SIR model (susceptible, infected and recovered) which is about the simplest model you can use. You can then proceed with deterministic (differential equations) or stochastic or other methods like cellular automata to do the mathematical modelling. You can see an example of how to set up the equations here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jebm.12376 That uses a slightly more complex SEIR model (E is exposed). Note that the differential equations usually cannot be solved analytically, and they need numerical methods like Runge Kutta using software like Berkeley Madonna to crack them. I have some experience with this, having done a course at Imperial College London. the case study provided by you is very chimp, I have deleted my simple assumption to avoid confusion(embarrassment😂). Thanks for sharing. ↡ Advertisement 4 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustank Hypersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Ct3833 said: the case study provided by you is very chimp, I have deleted my simple assumption to avoid confusion(embarrassment😂). Thanks for sharing. Here the number of 高手 many until scary 😓 11 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustank Hypersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-downgrades-2020-economic-growth-forecast-to-05-15-on-coronavirus-impact 😰 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soya Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Jman888 said: impressed that many country have 100% recovery rate (other than italy), england also about 90%. Comparing to other countries is quite meaningless actually as different countries are at different levels of preparedness. If we are to believe numbers alone, Indo is at the forefront of medical science as they have zero cases....lol 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTong Turbocharged February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Ct3833 said: the case study provided by you is very chimp, I have deleted my simple assumption to avoid confusion(embarrassment😂). Thanks for sharing. Basically your excel skills is basic la.. no formatting, no title no header.. looks a lot like my bank account 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carbon82 Moderator February 17, 2020 Author Share February 17, 2020 Time to consider what the Japanese are doing... Avoid crowds to prevent spread of COVID-19, Japan health minister warns TOKYO: Japan's health minister on Sunday (Feb 16) urged the public to avoid crowds and "non-essential gatherings", including notoriously packed commuter trains, to prevent COVID-19 from spreading in the country. Katsunobu Kato warned the nation was "entering a new phase" in the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has infected nearly 60 people in Japan so far. "We want to ask the public to avoid non-urgent, non-essential gatherings. We want elderly and those with pre-existing conditions to avoid crowded places," Kato said after a meeting of a panel of experts. "I think it's important that we exercise Japan's collective strength. We wish to ask the Japanese people for their cooperation and it will take everyone being united to tackle this infectious disease," he told a press conference. Kato said cases with no clear transmission chains and involving people who have not travelled to China, where the outbreak began, meant Japan was entering a new stage. The government will draft fresh guidelines for doctors about when to suspect possible coronavirus infections and for ordinary citizens to know when to seek medical care. Japan has been pushing Tokyo residents to try telecommuting or avoid rush hour commutes to ease traffic congestion during the summer Tokyo Olympic Games. Kato said the government will reiterate its calls on people to try those measures to ease the spread of the virus. The comments come after a spate of new infections were confirmed over the weekend, raising the total number of cases inside Japan to 59. Those numbers exclude hundreds of cases aboard a cruise ship, as well as a quarantine officer who tested people on the boat. Most infected individuals seem to experience mild conditions similar to the common cold and may not realise that they have the disease, risking possibly spreading it to others, said Takaji Wakita, chief of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases who headed the expert panel. "It is expected that domestic infections will continue," Wakita said, adding that Japan was at an early stage of the spread. 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weez911 Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 (edited) What's troubling is the number of infected people on that cruise ship. As of this morning, there were 414 infected individuals out of 3,700 passengers, giving a percentage of 11.1%. This percentage is slightly higher than the 2009 H1N1 infections in Singapore (414,000 out of 4,988,000 population in 2009, or 8.3%), albeit some 420,000 individuals took the vaccine then. I acknowledge there are some variables that are different in both scenarios. This is just a back-of-envelope calculation and only covers infection rate. Edited February 17, 2020 by Weez911 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noobcarbuyer 5th Gear February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/ Here’s what coronavirus does to the body From blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here’s an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ct3833 Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, BenTong said: Basically your excel skills is basic la.. no formatting, no title no header.. looks a lot like my bank account Haha mai hoot lah, I cut the basic out only. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victor68 Turbocharged February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Weez911 said: What's troubling is the number of infected people on that cruise ship. As of this morning, there were 414 infected individuals out of 3,700 passengers, giving a percentage of 11.1%. This percentage is slightly higher than the 2009 H1N1 infections in Singapore (414,000 out of 4,988,000 population in 2009, or 8.3%), albeit some 420,000 individuals took the vaccine then. I acknowledge there are some variables that are different in both scenarios. This is just a back-of-envelope calculation and only covers infection rate. I was looking at the numbers and it seems to indicate some trend here. Why would 3,799 people on board a ship has 414 infected whilst in other situation like a plane of say 300 people, would you get 30? In term of space, I think plane is much more confined but the duration within that confined space is much shorter. Buffet the reason? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ct3833 Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 Haha yah, I deleted it immediately when highland pointed out my huge oversight. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustank Hypersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/as-asia-panics-one-country-wins-praise-for-approach-to-virus?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=asia&utm_medium=social 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beregond Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 10 hours ago, Ct3833 said: If you look at the Tencent data carefully, there are 11k (eleven thousand) critically illed over the total of 57k confirmed cases, this is the number that makes the China communist party sleepless about. from alot of undercover report , and fact that almost 70-80 doctor and nurses die from overwork. the situation in china is 10x worst then what we read 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenTong Turbocharged February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, Weez911 said: What's troubling is the number of infected people on that cruise ship. As of this morning, there were 414 infected individuals out of 3,700 passengers, giving a percentage of 11.1%. This percentage is slightly higher than the 2009 H1N1 infections in Singapore (414,000 out of 4,988,000 population in 2009, or 8.3%), albeit some 420,000 individuals took the vaccine then. I acknowledge there are some variables that are different in both scenarios. This is just a back-of-envelope calculation and only covers infection rate. Actually what is troubling to me.. WHO experts only go Wuhan.. they should use this ship to do research.. very contained study.. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weez911 Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Victor68 said: I was looking at the numbers and it seems to indicate some trend here. Why would 3,799 people on board a ship has 414 infected whilst in other situation like a plane of say 300 people, would you get 30? In term of space, I think plane is much more confined but the duration within that confined space is much shorter. Buffet the reason? I understand a article below, and also concurred by a pilot friend of mine, that the ratio of fresh to recycled air in a plane is 50-50 percent, and two things happen with recirculated air: Some air is dumped overboard while the remainder is pumped through HEPA air filters, which remove more than 99 percent of all contaminants, including bacteriologic agents. HEPA filters catch most airborne particles, meaning their capture standard is pretty high in term of commercial spaces. A HEPA filter's complete air change is better than most other forms of transportation and office buildings and similar to the standard for hospitals. https://www.tripsavvy.com/air-quality-during-your-flight-54164 Of course, there were known cases of SARS infection in a plane, and SARS is less infectious than COVID-19. So please choose window seats (see below article) for best chance of not getting viruses in a plane. And pray. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ichibawa 5th Gear February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 China does not have enough resources to keep up with the mounting demands on a daily basis. Docs and nurses have to wear diapers because they can't afford to change their suits due to short supply. Patients have to get in line to be tested and most doesn't know when their turn will come. That is why I would prefer that mask, sanitizer, alcohol wipes, etc. to fulfill the needs of the healthcare sector first before coming down to the general public. There is already one TCM in Sg requesting for assistance on such items. Their practice and treatments will stop once the supply runs out. 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weez911 Supersonic February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, BenTong said: Actually what is troubling to me.. WHO experts only go Wuhan.. they should use this ship to do research.. very contained study.. Yes, if they want to focus on infection rate in a contained environment. There must be something in the design of the cruise ship that enables transmission. Or maybe it is also 11% outside the cruise ship... not sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windwaver Turbocharged February 17, 2020 Share February 17, 2020 https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20200217-1029670 香港发生厕纸劫案 持刀男超市抢60条卷装厕纸 2019冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）令全港人心惶惶，市面上多种清洁用品供不应求，今早（17日）更出现厕纸劫案，有人持刀抢劫超市，抢走数百卷厕纸。 据香港01网站及星岛日报网报道，今早约6时，送货工人将多条卷装厕纸送抵旺角道97号地下的一间超级市场，并将货物置放于店外看管。 报道称，超市早上7时才营业，货物运抵约15分钟后，突然有三名戴帽及口罩的男子扑出，其中一人手持两把利刀，指吓送货工人，随即将五六十条卷装厕纸放入一辆超市手推车内，“连纸带车”沿洗衣街往太子方向逃去。以一条12卷来计算，共抢走约600卷。 警方事后封锁现场调查，并在洗衣街与旺角道交界发现一个怀疑属于匪徒的行李箱。警方将案件列“行劫”处理，现正追缉匪徒。 , they don't even bother to queue; just rob supermarket. ↡ Advertisement 8 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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