COVID-19 SG: Start of Phase 2 from 19 June

[1fast1]

6 minutes ago, Blueray said:

yeah, wait for him to post his loot.

major blunder on the part of Footlocker, me says...

Shot themselves in the Foot. 

[CremornePt]

46 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

My memory said India, Phillippine and Indonesia requires pre-flight testing.

The rest no need.

Apart from the very low risk countries (Brunei, NZ, TW, AU, China, Macau, HK). pre-dep testing has been required for arrival from ALL countries since Nov 10.

(doesn't include SC & PR's - but maybe it should...)

https://safetravel.ica.gov.sg/files/SHN-and-swab-summary.pdf

Edited December 6, 2020 by CremornePt

[CremornePt]

A fairly pessimistic vaccine scenario in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/at-least-6-in-10-need-covid-19-vaccine-to-achieve-herd-immunity-13707320

Apparently no plans to vaccinate the entire population - not enough resources to innoculate the majority in less than 2 years. (although this sounds way too defeatist)

If true, this may bring us significantly behind certain developed countries. (US, NZ, Australia, parts of EU - & perhaps China...)

Edited December 6, 2020 by CremornePt

[1fast1]

5 hours ago, CremornePt said:

A fairly pessimistic vaccine scenario in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/at-least-6-in-10-need-covid-19-vaccine-to-achieve-herd-immunity-13707320

Apparently no plans to vaccinate the entire population - not enough resources to innoculate the majority in less than 2 years. (although this sounds way too defeatist)

If true, this may bring us significantly behind certain developed countries. (US, NZ, Australia, parts of EU - & perhaps China...)

The threshold of vaccine coverage required to achieve herd immunity depends on two factors, transmissibility of the virus and vaccine efficacy. 

Transmissibility is immediately summarised by the R0, or the basic reproduction number. Note that estimating this is fraught with uncertainty and there are huge confidence intervals (error bars) in many estimates, along with biases inherent in the mathematical modelling being used. 

Note also that the effective Reproduction Number, which some studies estimate, is not ideal to use, as that is highly context specific, and has already accounted for control measures like masking and social distancing. If you use these estimates, you'll find you can achieve herd immunity much more easily, but that also means prolonging all those measures indefinitely. 

A weakness of using any form of reproduction number to estimate vaccination thresholds is that the role of reintroduction of new cases is not accounted for as the population is considered closed. It is possible to account for that, but very difficult in practical terms if your border policy and screening/quarantine measures keep changing for political/economic reasons. 

Anyway, herd immunity is achieved when one case transmits on average to just less than one susceptible contact. 

The Herd Immune Threshold (h) is computed as:

h= 1- (1/R0)

And h represents the proportion of the population you need to vaccinate to achieve herd immunity, presupposing perfect efficacy. 

If efficacy is less than 100 percent, then simply compensate for that with a factor e. So the effective herd immune threshold h' is:

h' = h/e = (1/e)(1- (1/R0))

Anyway, you can play with the numbers yourself. If the vaccine is 95 percent effective, then e = 0.95. If R0 is 2.3, then you'll need to vaccinate:

h' = (1/0.95)(1-(1/2.3)) = 0.59 approx 0.6, which approaches the "six in ten" reported in the lay press. 

Disclaimer: I have no ideas what figures whoever the press was quoting actually used to make their estimates.

[Wt_know]

is it in layman term, every 6 out of ten vaccinated = herd immunity?

0.6 x 5.5M population = 3.3M people

3,300,000 / 10,000 per days take 11 months ?  

if 1 day can vaccine 20k people (mission impossible) still take 5.5 months!

Edited December 6, 2020 by Wt_know

[Sosaria]

On 12/5/2020 at 12:57 PM, CremornePt said:

I'd take the vaccine right now if it was available. I trust the vaccine more than I trust CV-19. The alternative is to lock ourselves completely up  for another 5 years.

Besides, what's waiting one year going to accomplish. Any long term effects could take +5 years to manifest. Sometimes you just have to take a risk - that's what life is.

Actually we don't need to take the vaccine. Let others go and take it. Then when sufficient numbers are immunized, we are just as good as protected anyway, since the virus will peter out.

Unless daily work involves any of the higher-risk workplaces like construction, marine or process industries, there's actually very very very little risk of catching the infection - even if you go to the hairdresser, gym, squeeze into a lift, etc. provided you are masked and remember to sanitize those hands.

Personally I would not take the vaccine even when widely available. Never even opted for flu vaccination  as i always felt it totally unnecessary. Sometimes we got to apply our own judgement based on experience, rather than 100% listen to authority (read : big pharma) which are profit-motivated.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Sosaria

[inlinesix]

8 minutes ago, Sosaria said:

Personally I would not take the vaccine even when widely available. Never even opted for flu vaccination  as i always felt it totally unnecessary. Sometimes we got to apply our own judgement based on experience, rather than 100% listen to authority (read : big pharma) which are profit-motivated.

Well, I have to strongly disagree with you.

I am a person who hardly sick in a year.  That's including flu.

I took the flu vaccine recently as a form of risk mitigation.

The last time I took a vaccine was just before I went to Beijing in 2016.

[Weez911]

2 hours ago, Wt_know said:

is it in layman term, every 6 out of ten vaccinated = herd immunity?

0.6 x 5.5M population = 3.3M people

3,300,000 / 10,000 per days take 11 months ?  

if 1 day can vaccine 20k people (mission impossible) still take 5.5 months!

Scarli the immunity can only last 6 months then cui liao. 

[Wt_know]

31 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Scarli the immunity can only last 6 months then cui liao. 

already said need 2 doses ... and some might even need to take extra booster ...    

Edited December 6, 2020 by Wt_know

[Jamesc]

We shouldn't be selfish.

Young and healthy should take last.

Let the old people like MIL and all the front line medical staff take first.

[Weez911]

18 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

already said need 2 doses ... and some might even need to take extra booster ...    

Logistically it is machiam impossible. They may need to garner and train all the civil servants with steady hands to administer the jab to immunise the % of population within a short time. We don't have so many doctors around to do the job although they are the only people allowed to do so.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Weez911

[CremornePt]

10 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Logistically it is machiam impossible. They may need to garner and train all the civil servants with steady hands to administer the jab to immunise the % of population within a short time. We don't have so many doctors around to do the job although they are the only people allowed to do so.

Nothing is impossible. In the US they're training various health care workers to assist with innoculations, something they've done in previous pandemics. (dentists, med school students,  nursing students, EMT's etc)

[inlinesix]

Today, community cases reset

Day 0

[CremornePt]

1 hour ago, Sosaria said:

Actually we don't need to take the vaccine. Let others go and take it. Then when sufficient numbers are immunized, we are just as good as protected anyway, since the virus will peter out.

Not big on social courage, eh'? 😀

With an alleged CV-19 fatality rate of 5-10 x times the flu, I'd take the protection any day. Sure, I don't like needles or big pharma either, but I never regretted getting shots for measles either.

Also it's going to take a long time for CV-19 to peter out in South East Asia, if it ever will. (Indo, Philippines?)

[Weez911]

Some maths - assume 60% of population (3.4m) have to be immunised. Assume 2 jabs (6.8m jabs for 3.4m people) for a complete immunisation. 

Ideally these 6.8m jabs have to be done within 3 months (90 days) because we don't know how long the immunity will last. This works out to 76k jabs per day.

We have 1700 clinics, 14 polyclinics, and 23 pte plus public hospitals. Given their already packed/scheduled workload, are they able to handle these additional 76k jabs per day, for up to 3 months? 

This is disregarding the challenges of gathering people to designated places to jab, storage of vaccine, recording the name of people who have been immunised, and managing crowds all at the same time.. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Weez911

[Voodooman]

 

2 hours ago, Sosaria said:

Actually we don't need to take the vaccine. Let others go and take it. Then when sufficient numbers are immunized, we are just as good as protected anyway, since the virus will peter out.

Unless daily work involves any of the higher-risk workplaces like construction, marine or process industries, there's actually very very very little risk of catching the infection - even if you go to the hairdresser, gym, squeeze into a lift, etc. provided you are masked and remember to sanitize those hands.

Personally I would not take the vaccine even when widely available. Never even opted for flu vaccination  as i always felt it totally unnecessary. Sometimes we got to apply our own judgement based on experience, rather than 100% listen to authority (read : big pharma) which are profit-motivated.

No malice intended but your experience is not relevant in this instance, judgement in this case (we are dealing with a virus that the naked eyes can't see) has to be based on medical facts and science.

I have never had a flu jab but this is a global pandemic, thousands are dying everyday.  Can't wait to get back to normalcy and protect loved ones around me, especially my aged parents.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Voodooman

[CremornePt]

26 minutes ago, Weez911 said:

Ideally these 6.8m jabs have to be done within 3 months (90 days) because we don't know how long the immunity will last.

I believe US is planning a 6-12 mths roll out.

If we do 12 mths, that'd translate to 20,000 innoculations/day - 800 health care workers @ 25 innoculations/day? They can setup community tents, like they already do for test taking etc.

If we can manage swabbing 320,000 FW's every 2 weeks, I'm sure we can organize innoculation logistics.

Of course, that does imply immunity to last for at least a year. We'll see.

Edited December 6, 2020 by CremornePt

[CremornePt]

11 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

I have never had a flu jab but this is a global pandemic, thousands are dying everyday. 

Neither have I btw. 😀

However, for CV-19, I can't wait to actively combat this global scourge.

11 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

Can't wait to get back to normalcy

A-men!

One can't be impatient with a pandemic, as it moves on its own terms - but when we finally have these vaccine tools to fight actively against it, I want to use them.

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by CremornePt