COE Bidding – 1st & 2nd Round of July 2020

[Jtbc]

4 hours ago, Lotr said:

Fact 1. Cat A, B, E quota dropped if compared to July.

Fact 2. Cat A, B, E quota increased if compared with last quarter before CB.

ST and sgcarmart chose to feature fact 1 prominently in their reporting. 

Usually we compare to the Last period.

As the Last period usually carry higher weightage.

The fact is July monthly average quota was 2,568 whereas August is 1,967. Meaning there is 300 quota less per bidding for August.

Unless the demand is decreasing else COE may not drop further or much.

Just for discussion.

 

Actually I am expecting it should be the same quota of average 2,568 for August and September as it mentioned 1/3 of the accumulated quota will be returned over the 3 mths. But it turn out to be it is not evenly spread over the 3 mths.

This is due to less number of deregistration of vehicles from April to June. And this trend might go on due to the recession.

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Jtbc

[Lotr]

8 minutes ago, Jtbc said:

Usually we compare to the Last period.

As the Last period usually carry higher weightage.

The fact is July monthly average quota was 2,568 whereas August is 1,967. Meaning there is 300 quota less per bidding for August to October.

Unless the demand is decreasing else COE may not drop further or much. 

Just for discussion.

 

Referring to https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltagov/who_we_are/statistics_and_publications/statistics/pdf/COEQuotaAllocationRV.pdf

Feb-Apr quota for Cat A, B, E: 1945 + 1966 + 655 = 4566, Cat B, E = 2621

July quota for Cat A, B, E:  2568 + 2581 + 883 = 6032

Aug-Oct quota for Cat A, B, E: 1967 + 1729 + 903 = 4599, Cat B, E = 2632

 

COE prices at the last bid before CB is $31210, $30012, $32500

COE prices at the last bid of July is $32699, $35001, $35001

 

I see July as an anomaly:

(1) quota is high due to 1/3 of Feb-Apr monthly quota is added

(2) COE prices went up due to suspension of bidding for 3 months during CB.

 

Looking the numbers above, COE prices is already low before CB.  If July is an anomaly and with Aug-Oct quota being more than Feb-Apr plus the economic headwinds, I would say COE prices would be on a downtrend.

 

BTW, who is the 'we' referring to the quote post? LTA?

[Jamesc]

Why need to worry about used car dealers.

We only buy at scrap price and if cannot sell

we just scrap lah.

Won't lose much money one.

[Jamesc]

People only look at the supply of COEs

When the economy tank the demand side 

will fall off even faster.

[CougarGTR]

About topping up...

The price fixing during booking is under customer's request, performed jointly or solely by SE?

As a customer, does 1 needs to be pre-qualified to  be competent (& proficient) to determine if the COE price pegged (even if the SE is willing to share) by AD is reasonable, or even logical?

So, should the buyer be held responsible (or at ransom) when the AD under priced?

I foresee that my AD may ended up in a PR crisis if a huge % of bookings collected during cb requires top up or failed 6 bids. Prerequisite is that the situation must be made known to the public. Either their sales team screwed up big time, or this is a con job I.e., collect 10k each as free loan.

[Lotr]

59 minutes ago, Jamesc said:

Why need to worry about used car dealers.

We only buy at scrap price and if cannot sell

we just scrap lah.

Won't lose much money one.

Only KBW and LTA can give an answer for your question 😂

[dwn11807]

My SE also offered me new package. 

Current: NG COE 6 bids 3 mths 

New: topup 3k to become guaranteed COE, 6 bids 3 mths, coe rebate 29k. (to be clear.. AD will refund the difference if secure COE is below 29k). The contact will be reset and next round will be 1st bid. 

I think this should be reasonable offer ☺️

[Bandai]

3 minutes ago, dwn11807 said:

My SE also offered me new package. 

Current: NG COE 6 bids 3 mths 

New: topup 3k to become guaranteed COE, 6 bids 3 mths, coe rebate 29k. (to be clear.. AD will refund the difference if secure COE is below 29k). The contact will be reset and next round will be 1st bid. 

I think this should be reasonable offer ☺️

gg ppl falling for top up coe already

 

[CougarGTR]

1 minute ago, dwn11807 said:

My SE also offered me new package. 

Current: NG COE 6 bids 3 mths 

New: topup 3k to become guaranteed COE, 6 bids 3 mths, coe rebate 29k. (to be clear.. AD will refund the difference if secure COE is below 29k). The contact will be reset and next round will be 1st bid. 

I think this should be reasonable offer ☺️

Sounds reasonable... which AD if I may ask.

BUT, should be pay for someone's mistake?

It is not about the money... by topping up, we are admitting that it's us whom screwed up and we agreed to release the AD from all liability.

[Lotr]

2 minutes ago, CougarGTR said:

About topping up...

The price fixing during booking is under customer's request, performed jointly or solely by SE?

As a customer, does 1 needs to be pre-qualified to  be competent (& proficient) to determine if the COE price pegged (even if the SE is willing to share) by AD is reasonable, or even logical?

So, should the buyer be held responsible (or at ransom) when the AD under priced?

I foresee that my AD may ended up in a PR crisis if a huge % of bookings collected during cb requires top up or failed 6 bids. Prerequisite is that the situation must be made known to the public. Either their sales team screwed up big time, or this is a con job I.e., collect 10k each as free loan.

Sounds complicated.

For me, NonG package, requirement for top up is implicit.  Of course, customers can reject.  No business will proceed with a loss making deal - losing one customer is no big deal,  especially for big ADs, just do more "promo" and wait for new customers to bite.  

BTW, top up can also negotiate, once I was asked to top up by PI, asked for 1k, I countered to 500, got 50% discount!!! 

[Mkl22]

1 minute ago, CougarGTR said:

Sounds reasonable... which AD if I may ask.

BUT, should be pay for someone's mistake?

It is not about the money... by topping up, we are admitting that it's us whom screwed up and we agreed to release the AD from all liability.

Then don’t buy?
Coe is always The higher you bid the high chances of getting. Who Pays more wins. Has Been like that since 1990s. All these complains are a waste of time. Life goes on. 

[Lotr]

9 minutes ago, dwn11807 said:

My SE also offered me new package. 

Current: NG COE 6 bids 3 mths 

New: topup 3k to become guaranteed COE, 6 bids 3 mths, coe rebate 29k. (to be clear.. AD will refund the difference if secure COE is below 29k). The contact will be reset and next round will be 1st bid. 

I think this should be reasonable offer ☺️

Contract reset?  that's a new one, don't know what's the real story behind.

so topup 3k and rebate also up by 3k?

[CougarGTR]

5 minutes ago, Lotr said:

Sounds complicated.

For me, NonG package, requirement for top up is implicit.  Of course, customers can reject.  No business will proceed with a loss making deal - losing one customer is no big deal,  especially for big ADs, just do more "promo" and wait for new customers to bite.  

BTW, top up can also negotiate, once I was asked to top up by PI, asked for 1k, I countered to 500, got 50% discount!!! 

Trying to figure out the relationship between rebate and submission. We cannot be shooting at something arbitrary.

So far, all my coes (from various ADs) were higher than their rebate level and honestly, non of my SEs shared their target bid price.

This is the 1st time I failed to get at 1st bid hence, took a closer look at what's happenings. 

[Lotr]

8 minutes ago, CougarGTR said:

Sounds reasonable... which AD if I may ask.

BUT, should be pay for someone's mistake?

It is not about the money... by topping up, we are admitting that it's us whom screwed up and we agreed to release the AD from all liability.

There are many reasons why buyers willing to top up, mainly because the itch to get new car is too strong.  There are also other reasons such as the current car going to reach 10 years or the PARF is going to drop by another 5% soon.

The current condition is actually caused by CB, leading to closure of showrooms and suspension of COE. 

To attract buyers during that period, dealers came out with packages with low rebates, whether they really do believe COE will fall, only they will know. 

Buyers who signed are of course attracted by the deals and should sign with eyes wide open, i.e. nonG package with rebates level at 10k or more lower than the last bid price.  Maybe they also think that COE will fall once bidding resumes. 

But what caused CB?  Of course that is another whole discussion.

[Yeobt]

COE quota will be increased only when the new charge by usage ERP starts. Save on right hand, payout from left hand.

[Lotr]

18 minutes ago, CougarGTR said:

Trying to figure out the relationship between rebate and submission. We cannot be shooting at something arbitrary.

So far, all my coes (from various ADs) were higher than their rebate level and honestly, non of my SEs shared their target bid price.

This is the 1st time I failed to get at 1st bid hence, took a closer look at what's happenings. 

Too many variables and unknowns.  There are at least 3 cases here:

1.  For the 1st bid in July, some ADs secured COE for those who bought during CB.  Some ADs didn't even bid

2.  For the 2nd bid in July, those ADs that didn't bid on the 1st bid, secured COEs for those who bought during CB.

3.  For the coming bid, ADs (which ones?) are asking for top up.  Is it opportunistic move after yesterday's quota announcement or do they really expect COEs to go up?

Bottom line is whether ADs can afford to bid or not to secure the sales?  While they want the sales, they will not make it at a loss.

Case in point: There is a particular car that was priced so low, thereby reducing the margin to at least 50% below the usual.  So far, no one has gotten their COE after 2 bids based on that model's thread in these forums.    

Edited July 26, 2020 by Lotr

[Jamesc]

51 minutes ago, CougarGTR said:

About topping up...

The price fixing during booking is under customer's request, performed jointly or solely by SE?

As a customer, does 1 needs to be pre-qualified to  be competent (& proficient) to determine if the COE price pegged (even if the SE is willing to share) by AD is reasonable, or even logical?

So, should the buyer be held responsible (or at ransom) when the AD under priced?

I foresee that my AD may ended up in a PR crisis if a huge % of bookings collected during cb requires top up or failed 6 bids. Prerequisite is that the situation must be made known to the public. Either their sales team screwed up big time, or this is a con job I.e., collect 10k each as free loan.

No no its not a con job.

If COE tanks you get your car.

If COE goes up its entirely your choice to top up or not.

We car dealers we are just hostage to COE as anyone else.

And I can tell you honestly we love low COE just as any car buyer.

Low COE means we will sell a lot of cars and we can mark up a lot more.

[Jamesc]

Now we try to get as much top ups as possible.

COE tanks in the next 3 months

Wohoo we get the extra top up as profit.

We call this a win win.

You get your car we get your money.