Sgp enters worst recession in 55 yrs

[ToyotaShuttle]

13 hours ago, Yewheng said:

The key word is average not medium. .

There will sure have many super high earners like earn 100k per month, 200k per month, 300k per month and more.. Even though these percentage is low, but because the number is so high, even with small %, it could push up average Singaporeans salary figure to be higher then medium Singaporeans salary. So the one we should look at is at the halfway point which is medium salary.. 

median. not medium.

[Throttle2]

Huat ah!

muayhahahaha.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Throttle2

[Yewheng]

7 hours ago, Vid said:

He's a minister, not some secondary school student pushed to make a speech. FFS! Stop looking at the script!

 

Did not notice it until tkl point it out. Ccs really seems to have more white hair and looks quite a bit older. Looks like his job is really very stressed. Like almost every politicians get aged very fast in just a few yrs time. 

[Yewheng]

5 hours ago, ToyotaShuttle said:

median. not medium.

Thanks.. 

[13177]

10 hours ago, Vid said:

He's a minister, not some secondary school student pushed to make a speech. FFS! Stop looking at the script!

Same like Jo Teo, she is also reading from the script?!

[inlinesix]

10 minutes ago, 13177 said:

Same like Jo Teo, she is also reading from the script?!

🤭

[Angcheek]

10 hours ago, Vid said:

He's a minister, not some secondary school student pushed to make a speech. FFS! Stop looking at the script!

The last time he did that ... sheep happened 😁

[yishunite]

11 hours ago, Vid said:

He's a minister, not some secondary school student pushed to make a speech. FFS! Stop looking at the script!

Later sia suay all come out how???

[Throttle2]

3 hours ago, Yewheng said:

 

Did not notice it until tkl point it out. Ccs really seems to have more white hair and looks quite a bit older. Looks like his job is really very stressed. Like almost every politicians get aged very fast in just a few yrs time. 

Salary big, Stress high

Normal leh

[steveluv]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Singapore-narrows-2020-GDP-forecast-to-5-to-7-as-outlook-dims?utm_campaign=RN Subscriber newsletter&utm_medium=daily newsletter&utm_source=NAR Newsletter&utm_content=article link&del_type=1&pub_date=20200811190000&seq_num=7&si=44594

Singapore narrows 2020 GDP forecast to -5% to -7% as outlook dims

PM Lee warns of more economic pain, with COVID crisis 'far from over'

The coronavirus has Singapore headed for its worst economic performance in its 55-year history.   © Reuters

KENTARO IWAMOTO, Nikkei staff writerAugust 11, 2020 09:02 JSTUpdated on August 11, 2020 12:11 JST

SINGAPORE -- Singapore on Tuesday revised this year's economic growth projection to a range of -5% to -7%, from the previous -4% to -7%, underscoring the prolonged impact of COVID-19 on the city-state's businesses.

Gross domestic product for the April-June quarter -- during which the country was under heightened restrictions -- shrank 13.2% on the year, the government said the same day, worse than the preliminary showing of -12.6%. As the initial data already showed, the country has slipped into a technical recession.

"The outlook for the Singapore economy has weakened slightly since May," when the government made the previous forecast, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement. "The subdued external economic environment will continue to pose a drag on several of Singapore's outward-oriented sectors such as transportation and storage and wholesale trade."

The revised full-year range of -5% to -7% means Singapore is headed for its worst performance in its 55 years of history.

As of Sunday, the country had confirmed about 55,000 coronavirus infections -- over 90% of them in dormitories for migrant workers -- with 27 deaths. Singapore started easing its movement restrictions in early June and has set up "travel corridor" arrangements with two key economic partners, China and Malaysia. But some businesses have yet to reopen and cross-border travel remains severely constrained.

"The reopening of international borders is expected to take place more gradually than earlier anticipated," the ministry added. "This is likely to weigh on the outlook of sectors that are reliant on tourism and air travel."

As the outlook remains uncertain, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong advised citizens to brace for a long struggle in his 55th National Day speech on Sunday. "The crisis is far from over," he said. "Business closures, retrenchments and unemployment are all likely to go up in the coming months."

The latest key economic indicators have raised red flags: The unemployment rate rose to 2.9% in June, from 2.4% in March, while manufacturing output dropped for the second straight month, down 6.7% from a year earlier. Retail sales fell 27.8% on the year in June.

At a news conference after Tuesday's GDP announcement, Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing stressed the government's commitment to supporting the economy and jobs, noting that the second-quarter contraction was the worst on record. "All our government agencies will work together to make sure ... we provide the best conditions possible for our companies to do business and remain connected with the world," he said. "We will strengthen our efforts to help match jobs with our people and to train them to acquire those jobs with new skills."

In the coming weeks, he added, the government will lay out plans to shore up specific industries. "We must chart new directions now for a very different and uncertain future," Chan said.

The government has already introduced relief packages worth more than 90 billion Singapore dollars ($65 billion), or nearly 20% of GDP, to cushion the pain. The central bank also eased monetary policy in March to boost the economy; the next policy meeting is scheduled for October.

Other Southeast Asian countries suffered steep GDP declines in the second quarter, too. The Philippines' economy shrank 16.5% on the year, while Indonesia reported a 5.3% contraction, the first since 1999 when the country was reeling from the Asian financial crisis.

Malaysia is due to announce its GDP this Friday, with Thailand following next week.

[Angcheek]

9 billions 😂 lets drink to that 🍻

 

[Windwaver]

I no need this already quite painful from aging 

 

[Fuelsaver]

Actually if not becos of the current pandemic they wouldn't normally be stressed. The real stressed are the downline

[Fuelsaver]

Too bad with astronomical remuneration, people likely expect astrological performance

[mersaylee]

13 minutes ago, Fuelsaver said:

Too bad with astronomical remuneration, people likely expect astrological performance

It has to be galactic...

[Wt_know]

3 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

Salary big, Stress high

Normal leh

cannot salary high, tcss, shake leg ... sit in aircon room and shoot email meh?

but jack neo movie show it nicely done leh ... lol

Edited August 12, 2020 by Wt_know

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/packed-malls-rising-property-prices-and-coes-its-hard-tell-spore-its-worst-recession

Packed malls, rising property and COE prices — it’s hard to tell S’pore is in its worst recession

• Singapore has entered its worst recession since independence
• However, consumer spending seems alive and well
• Economists say that the pandemic has affected the lower-income more
• Government support has also helped prop up consumer spending

SINGAPORE — Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the economy since the Covid-19 pandemic began earlier this year, a 29-year-old who wished to be known only as Ms Lee said she is not too concerned over losing her job in the months ahead.

Working in the finance industry, she said there is probably only a “1 per cent chance” she gets retrenched given her job stability.

Ms Lee is not the only one bucking the trend as Singapore grapples with its worst economic crisis since independence.

Ms Soh Wan Wei, a marketing manager in a software company, said there has been no need for her to tighten her purse strings as her income has not taken a hit.

In fact, both women said their spending has decreased as the circuit breaker months and having to work from home meant that they are going out less, though online shopping is accounting for a greater portion of their overall spending.

“I go out less, I stop shopping for clothes, I eat at home,” said the 32-year-old Ms Soh.

“The only chance I can spend money outside is during weekends. I still go out and eat at restaurants,” said Ms Lee.

Stories like these from Ms Lee and Ms Soh may seem jarring, given the dire official economic figures.

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said that Singapore’s economy shrank 13.2 per cent for the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year.

It also downgraded Singapore’s economic forecast for this year to a contraction of between 5 and 7 per cent from an initial projection that gross domestic product (GDP) would shrink between 4 and 7 per cent.

Compared to the first quarter on an annualised seasonally-adjusted basis, the economy contracted by an eye-popping 42.9 per cent.

Before Covid-19 wreaked havoc on Singapore’s economy, the largest full-year contraction was registered in 1998, when the economy shrank by 2.2 per cent as it reeled from the Asian financial crisis.

The steepest quarter-on-quarter drop on an annualised seasonally-adjusted basis was 11 per cent during the third quarter of 2010, after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.

While retrenchment numbers have spiked and GDP figures have been hitting record lows, large crowds still throng the malls on weekends. Property prices inched up 0.3 per cent for the second quarter, while latest Certificate of Entitlement prices in August rose by at least 7 per cent, suggesting that some consumers here have no problems spending.

However, economists told TODAY that there is no contradiction between the official numbers and what’s happening on the ground.

Ms Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at OCBC Bank, said the second quarter figures reflected how things were during the two circuit breaker months of April and June, which saw most workplaces shut in a bid to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

Now that Singapore is in Phase Two of its circuit breaker exit where most businesses are allowed to reopen, the “look and feel is very different”, she said.

Ms Ling said the large crowds at shopping malls could be a reflection of some pent-up demand after the circuit breaker as well.

“Singaporeans haven’t gone away. We can’t travel, whatever expenditure (is occurring) is being spent here. Same for foreigners working here, there is no outlet,” she added.

The question though is whether the demand seen now is sustainable.

Economists also said that much of the spending on display comes from the higher-income households, who have not been as greatly affected by Covid-19.

Dr Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Maybank Kim Eng, called Covid-19 a “regressive shock,” where sectors which are more labour-intensive and therefore made up of more lower-income workers have been hit harder.

The finance and technology sectors have emerged relatively unscathed out of the crisis, economists said.

“Even though this is the biggest recession since independence, this is also a very uneven recession whereby certain segments of the economy are bearing the brunt more than the rest. Unfortunately it is the lower income group,” said Mr Irvin Seah, a senior DBS economist.

Dr Chua said that lockdowns worldwide have in fact raised the saving rates of higher-income households since they have not been able to spend on discretionary goods like travel or recreation.

“There is a lot of liquidity in the system and some has shown in pent-up demand for certain goods such as property purchases,” he said.

Economists also said that Government support, such as the Jobs Support Scheme which helps companies subsidies the wages of Singaporean workers, has also helped prop up consumer spending.

Over S$100 billion has been pumped into the Singapore economy over four budgets since the Covid-19 outbreak to help prevent mass business closures and retrenchments.

“That has perhaps concealed the real pain because jobs lost in the first half of the year are borne by foreigners… Maybe some of these sentiments are partly inflated due to generous payouts which are set to fade,” said Dr Chua.

Mr Seah also said that there is usually a lag effect on the labour market, where the worst effects will materialise only at least two quarters after the record-low GDP figures.

He said that the labour market will likely bottom out only at the end of this year, and that might be when consumers here will start tightening their belts.

“In the coming months when the support measures expire, that’s when we will see things fall back to reality,” said Mr Seah.

While he said that consumers should be spending as it would help local businesses, he added that they should be mindful of the risk and be prudent.

Edited August 12, 2020 by noobcarbuyer

[noobcarbuyer]

Same observations from the UK also. 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200810-is-there-such-a-thing-as-a-good-or-bad-recession

Is there such a thing as a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ recession?

Quote

How can the economic outlook appear so bleak, while economists remain upbeat? Not all recessions affect people equally.

When the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced his economic intervention at the beginning of lockdown, the buzzword he kept reaching for was “unprecedented”. They were “unprecedented measures for unprecedented times”, he reminded the British public. His choice of word, if repetitive, was not insignificant.

Some of the figures being used to explain the current financial crisis are mind-boggling. In the second quarter of this year, the US economy shrank by 32.9% – a huge loss, bigger than any decline on record. France, Italy, Germany, Spain; almost every major economy has also seen a big drop in gross domestic product (GDP) at the start of this year. In the UK, in April alone, GDP shrank 20.4% and is on track for the biggest decline in 100 years. By comparison, during the Great Recession in 2008 UK GDP decreased by no more than 1% in a single month

Meanwhile some economists remain upbeat – predicting speedy “v-shaped” recoveries. How can it be that they think the worst economic performance on record is not such a big deal?

 

Quote

But not all recessions are the same. “The 2008 recession was about the housing market and shares, which hit disproportionately higher income groups,” says Carol Propper, a professor of economics at Imperial College London. “At present the crisis seems to be hitting very much the lower income groups; the vulnerable workers, young and less skilled. This looks like the late-70s, early-80s recession, which affected young and unskilled workers. What we know about those workers is that coming into a labour market has long shadows for those vulnerable workers, but not for skilled workers. It affects the whole life-long trajectory for those unskilled workers in the labour market.” So while the financial sector might be better off in this recession because of the lessons learned a decade ago, the least wealthy people might suffer much more.

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by noobcarbuyer