Singapore to allow general travel to Brunei, New Zealand

[Lethalstrike]

44 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

4.4bn.

That 8bn raised is supposed to last how long?

$200 million goes to pay for new planes from existing contracts as well. 

It's a perfect storm, no customers, fuel hedge losses and still need to pay for the new planes, on top of all other expense. 

The previous SIA CEO must be sitting at home, thinking "Heng ah, luckily I've retired!" 

[Wind30]

14 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

because the major "volatile" cost for plane is fuel cost ... employee cost and other operation cost more or less can estimate including loan repayment for plane

airline sold so many ticket that is forward flying .... ie next month, next 3 months, next 6 months

if airline do not buy and commit future price for fuel ... how they can fly people up

unless there is a clause that if oil skyrocket to $200 ... all previously sold ticket will not be honour

the problem now is double whammy for sq ... stab 2 knife on left and right leg ... totally crippled

secure future fuel price as much higher cost when oil plunge

got fuel ... but no plane can go up the air ...where to store the fuel? cut heavy loss of purchased fuel?

I think u have to do the maths and know when the hedging is too much and exposes your company to excessive risk. 

I am pretty sure Sia over hedged....

almost all the articles I read Sia is the airline that hedge like nobody business. Compared to other airlines.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Wind30

[Jamesc]

13 hours ago, CremornePt said:

Yeah - interestingly, NZ doesn't block their residents from travelling overseas.

Unlike Australia, which plays hardball & restrict their citizens & PRs from even leaving the country - they can't even go to near-virus-free NZ. (besides the fact that NZ wouldn't accept them either) Looks like Australia will keep the restriction until mid-2021 earliest. Imagine being locked into your own country for > 1 year.

I believe Malaysia & India has or had similar restrictions on their citizens/PRs.

I can imagine.

I locked up for 6 month already

never go Thailand.

[inlinesix]

20 minutes ago, Wind30 said:

I think u have to do the maths and know when the hedging is too much and exposes your company to excessive risk. 

I am pretty sure Sia over hedged....

almost all the articles I read Sia is the airline that hedge like nobody business. Compared to other airlines.

Any hedge that exceed 100% of its projected fuel usage is NO LONGER a hedge.

Fuel hedge reduced the risk of price volatility.

[Jamesc]

29 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

50% is worse case scenerio

99% is doom day scenerio.  I wonder which risk management technic includes Doom Day Scenerio

US tax office.

They plan how to collect tax in a nuclear war.

Nuclear War Plan by I.R.S. - The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/03/28/business/nuclear-war-plan-by-irs.html

[Jamesc]

Maybe they need to hedge

against hedging losses.

[Jamesc]

If the hedging team worried about kenna pok

with all the losses now they can even hire more

and increase their head count with this new idea.

Hire more experts to hedge against the hedging losses.

22 minutes ago, Jamesc said:

Maybe they need to hedge

against hedging losses.

 

[CremornePt]

People might remember SIA also suffered heavy fuel hedge losses previously - in 2015:

https://www.todayonline.com/business/singapore-airlines-books-big-fuel-hedging-loss-downbeat-outlook

Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA) today (May 14) reported a full-year fuel hedging loss of S$549 million as a result of falling oil prices and also highlighted fierce competition and soft demand on its key routes.

Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't.

[Philipkee]

1 hour ago, inlinesix said:

50% is worse case scenerio

99% is doom day scenerio.  I wonder which risk management technic includes Doom Day Scenerio

Actually all companies have it.  Iirc it's under catastrophic / seldom. So its probably tot of and planned but it's a paper exercise to pass audits and people do not think of the day when they actually would use it.

[inlinesix]

13 minutes ago, Philipkee said:

Actually all companies have it.  Iirc it's under catastrophic / seldom. So its probably tot of and planned but it's a paper exercise to pass audits and people do not think of the day when they actually would use it.

I haven't see any risk management stress test in insurance company where revenue drops by 99%.

In a doomDay scenario for Singapore, all low land will be flooded.  I wonder who has done any plan for this.

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by inlinesix

[Wt_know]

1 hour ago, Wind30 said:

I think u have to do the maths and know when the hedging is too much and exposes your company to excessive risk. 

I am pretty sure Sia over hedged....

almost all the articles I read Sia is the airline that hedge like nobody business. Compared to other airlines.

yup ... they are betting disguise of hedging   

Edited August 23, 2020 by Wt_know

[Volvobrick]

1 hour ago, inlinesix said:

Fuel Hedging is to reduce P&L volatily.

How would SQ CEO knows the world will be hit by COVID19?

 

The fuel prices started to tank before Covid when Opec went into a price war. Any decent CEO worth his salted celery would have closed his positions in Jan or Feb. 

If just reacting instead of anticipating, might as well get the brotherhood here to run SQ. At least we have collective wisdom. 😄

 

 

[Volvobrick]

1 minute ago, Wt_know said:

yup ... they are betting on fuel to make money  

Yes. Then you only need to employ 2 pax. One to bet, and one to follow up with admin. 

 

[Heartlander]

Actually if sIA is burning so much money as is just to hold together，why gov not aggressivly negotiate with more friendly and 'safe' countries to offer very cheap airfares to both Singaporeans and foreign citizens to jumpstart the tourism sector. Just for a month or 2, and to do stringent virus testing upon return before flying from the countries so that the results could be ready by the time fly back to Singapore. If keep on waiting is never ending, as never know is the best time.

[Volvobrick]

4 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

In a doomDay scenario for Singapore, all low land will be flooded.  I wonder who has done any plan for this.

Maybe that's why I haven't bought Sentosa Cove bungalow.... It will be underwater eventually. 😅

Edited August 23, 2020 by Volvobrick

[inlinesix]

4 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

yup ... they are betting on fuel to make money  

That is not hedging.

[inlinesix]

4 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

The fuel prices started to tank before Covid when Opec went into a price war. Any decent CEO worth his salted celery would have closed his positions in Jan or Feb. 

If just reacting instead of anticipating, might as well get the brotherhood here to run SQ. At least we have collective wisdom. 😄

 

What's point of CFO if CEO has to do all this shit?

Are you sure it is due to drop in price? How about drop in fuel usage?

 

[Volvobrick]

3 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

What's point of CFO if CEO has to do all this shit?

Are you sure it is due to drop in price? How about drop in fuel usage?

 

I didn't say solely becos of drop in price. It's both. This is not the first time they lost hundred of millions from fuel hedging. They never learn lesson one. I have also sold off this counter years ago. I think at 11 plus a share.

I am saying SQ mgt sucks, also as in sucking our (reserves) money via TH.