COE Bidding – 1st Round of September 2020

[Pplater]

Anyone know the link to check what bid the AD place for you?

[Calvin8808]

5 minutes ago, Pplater said:

Anyone know the link to check what bid the AD place for you?

https://ocoe.lta.gov.sg/

[Passion]

I think..... difficult for COE to go up. See how Mazda and Audi price their car. Now A4 effectively earn only 20k plus they also want to sell. Mazda drop their price from 177k to 169k for their CX 9. Merc sell E180 at a profit of 30k or so. 

During CB, I sent in a few enquires to different dealer. Now, a few are coming back to tell me they can offer high trade in for my car, as long I buy their car. 

so, is this good economy? Or all trying to hold and see who let go first? 

I think likely COE will maintain or drop. Because I see a few dealerS buay dong already, low price, as long got earn faster let go. Cars cannot sit in their stable for too long. 2 reasons, the parts will dry up and yet the warranty can only start when car register. This means their liability goes up. Second, now is nearing year end. Car indented from supplier in March still in stock, once cross over to 2021, the car effectively consider “old” cause MY is 2020. This will affect their selling price. 
 

also, one dealer, I suspect they bid for COE but can’t use. So they have register their car and try to sell as used with 10k off selling price, maybe can nego slightly more discount. 
 

so you guys see, if market really doing soooo good, these tell tale sign won’t come up. 

[Passion]

My opinion and suggestion is, those who don’t need a car now, can hold back and wait for 2 more bids. I know the itch to drive new car cannot resist, I also can’t resist. But I think, to save that few thousand dollars, it’s worth it to wait if there’s no urgency. 

[Calvin8808]

11 minutes ago, Passion said:

I think..... difficult for COE to go up. See how Mazda and Audi price their car. Now A4 effectively earn only 20k plus they also want to sell. Mazda drop their price from 177k to 169k for their CX 9. Merc sell E180 at a profit of 30k or so. 

During CB, I sent in a few enquires to different dealer. Now, a few are coming back to tell me they can offer high trade in for my car, as long I buy their car. 

so, is this good economy? Or all trying to hold and see who let go first? 

I think likely COE will maintain or drop. Because I see a few dealerS buay dong already, low price, as long got earn faster let go. Cars cannot sit in their stable for too long. 2 reasons, the parts will dry up and yet the warranty can only start when car register. This means their liability goes up. Second, now is nearing year end. Car indented from supplier in March still in stock, once cross over to 2021, the car effectively consider “old” cause MY is 2020. This will affect their selling price. 
 

also, one dealer, I suspect they bid for COE but can’t use. So they have register their car and try to sell as used with 10k off selling price, maybe can nego slightly more discount. 
 

so you guys see, if market really doing soooo good, these tell tale sign won’t come up. 

But our COEs usually defy logic.  

Edited September 7, 2020 by Calvin8808

[Calvin8808]

9 minutes ago, Passion said:

My opinion and suggestion is, those who don’t need a car now, can hold back and wait for 2 more bids. I know the itch to drive new car cannot resist, I also can’t resist. But I think, to save that few thousand dollars, it’s worth it to wait if there’s no urgency. 

Actually I agree with this, If not urgent wait till Nov will be a good time. I believe the COE will be much lower then.

It's also year-end for some ADs and they need to hit the quota committed to their principal for either rebates or hold onto their dealership and will be easier to nego for even lower price or multiple freebies as well. You will be amazed at what you can nego. 

And also just nice, new car for CNY

 

 

[berry64694]

18 minutes ago, Passion said:

I think..... difficult for COE to go up. See how Mazda and Audi price their car. Now A4 effectively earn only 20k plus they also want to sell. Mazda drop their price from 177k to 169k for their CX 9. Merc sell E180 at a profit of 30k or so. 

During CB, I sent in a few enquires to different dealer. Now, a few are coming back to tell me they can offer high trade in for my car, as long I buy their car. 

so, is this good economy? Or all trying to hold and see who let go first? 

I think likely COE will maintain or drop. Because I see a few dealerS buay dong already, low price, as long got earn faster let go. Cars cannot sit in their stable for too long. 2 reasons, the parts will dry up and yet the warranty can only start when car register. This means their liability goes up. Second, now is nearing year end. Car indented from supplier in March still in stock, once cross over to 2021, the car effectively consider “old” cause MY is 2020. This will affect their selling price. 
 

also, one dealer, I suspect they bid for COE but can’t use. So they have register their car and try to sell as used with 10k off selling price, maybe can nego slightly more discount. 
 

so you guys see, if market really doing soooo good, these tell tale sign won’t come up. 

We will see who turns out right after wednesday 4pm. hahah friendly friendly. 

[Passion]

17 minutes ago, Calvin8808 said:

But our COEs usually defy logic.  

No logic can defy economy crisis. Govt can bloster, but sure cannot remove the fact that supply chain and economy is tightly knitted. One person in the supply chain owe money, down the chain will be affected. 
 

just look at construction firm, one construction firm made up of many people. For example, supply headcount one, supply machinery one and many more. Now with limited headcount, meaning the manpower firm need to “eat themselves” during this period. Can they sustain? With work moving slower, rental of machinery may be delay. So do you think main con will honour payment?

 

everyone plan things base on norm, nobody plan things base on worst case scenario. Only doctor will tell you worst case scenarios. For business, some do plan for worse case, but this time round, it’s worse than worst case....

[Calvin8808]

3 minutes ago, Passion said:

No logic can defy economy crisis. Govt can bloster, but sure cannot remove the fact that supply chain and economy is tightly knitted. One person in the supply chain owe money, down the chain will be affected. 
 

just look at construction firm, one construction firm made up of many people. For example, supply headcount one, supply machinery one and many more. Now with limited headcount, meaning the manpower firm need to “eat themselves” during this period. Can they sustain? With work moving slower, rental of machinery may be delay. So do you think main con will honour payment?

 

everyone plan things base on norm, nobody plan things base on worst case scenario. Only doctor will tell you worst case scenarios. For business, some do plan for worse case, but this time round, it’s worse than worst case....

Since CB till now people were saying it will go down or no way it will go up but it keep defying logic.

All the reasoning previously said by others and what you say now makes perfect sense and logic and I agree it will definitely go down soon but perhaps not as soon as Wed. 

But come Nov I'm pretty sure it will be much lower.

 

[inlinesix]

29 minutes ago, Calvin8808 said:

But our COEs usually defy logic.  

Likely pent up demand during CB.

When this order book dry up, COE might be dropping 

[pengu]

I think COE will drop this time round. Quite unlikely so many increases in a row.

Also, based on current projections, Nov COE quota will increase substantially. Most dealers should be unwilling to bid new 6 bid orders aggressively now, seeing that they can delay these new orders to Nov when the COE quota is higher.

Haha let’s see if I will get new car this Wednesday. Been getting kind of impatient already 😅

[Pixel18]

Everyone can be right on the direction COE could go but let truth be told this Wed at 4pm!

😁

[yishunite]

1 minute ago, inlinesix said:

Likely pent up demand during CB.

When this order book dry up, COE might be dropping 

I can admit i got cb level demand wrong... was stronger than i believed and ofcos we all know KBW play out the quota distribution to prevent a crash since crash = mass deregistration of high COE car = gahmen lose revenue (its not 2ndhand car dealers they care abt lol)

But i also am more curious to see what is post CB demand like. I still think quite weak... but those who staying home and saving alot plus in safe sector must be thinking this is perfect time to buy car and would otherwise never have done so... yet I wonder when they realise after 6 months their car got less than 3k mileage they think whether really worth it or not... only thing is that this kind of thing can only learn by experience

[Calvin8808]

2 minutes ago, pengu said:

I think COE will drop this time round. Quite unlikely so many increases in a row.

Also, based on current projections, Nov COE quota will increase substantially. Most dealers should be unwilling to bid new 6 bid orders aggressively now, seeing that they can delay these new orders to Nov when the COE quota is higher.

Haha let’s see if I will get new car this Wednesday. Been getting kind of impatient already 😅

Am guessing it may hold for the next 2 bids or even increase a bit as some CB deals were on G-COE 6 bids and thus the AD will need to secure the COEs this month. 

Wed is the 5th bid. And also there was an additional week to collect orders (though these new orders could wait till Oct and Nov when the COE could be lower..

But let's just see how it unfold. No one knows for sure which way it will go. 

Analyse so much also like that. Ha ha  

[Mkl22]

4 hours ago, 13177 said:

If showroom fighting mosquitoes, then how come coe still go up?  

Done without test drives? Just send in Cheques? Hahah

[bennyp14]

1 hour ago, Passion said:

My opinion and suggestion is, those who don’t need a car now, can hold back and wait for 2 more bids. I know the itch to drive new car cannot resist, I also can’t resist. But I think, to save that few thousand dollars, it’s worth it to wait if there’s no urgency. 

I agree with the general concensus that the COE will go down after the next 2 bids.

However, I have not factored this in until an AD told me that in Japan, the production line has take a hit due to COVID resurgence.

I am not an economist, but if this scenario come in, we will have a lock stock, low economy but potentially high COE Quota in Nov - Jan(according to LTA projections). So it will be interesting to see how these opposing market forces weigh up.

 

 

 

 

[Scion]

i also hope COE prices will correct 😂😂

just like US tech stocks and Nasdaq.. keep going up up and up, when economy is so lousy

then one fine day (last week actually) it just slams down

[Yap88]