will COE hit 100k by 2025?

[Tedlhw]

 

 A younger colleague said he won't buy car a few years ago but he just bought. 😂

----->>Rubbish one la. Wont buy a car, and CAN'T buy is  a huge difference.

Its an urban legend, that young generation dont want to buy cars. Much akin to the multi deca-millionaire/billionaire living in HDB flat..

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Tedlhw

[Atonchia]

12 hours ago, Voodooman said:

There was a time i was told younger generation don't like to drive, they just grab, it seems that may not be true. A younger colleague said he won't buy car a few years ago but he just bought. 😂

Not sure if it will hit $100k again but the trend is up.

Just increase fuel cost 

COE will drop.... 

But EV.... Will, still push it up when infrastructure can support widespread adoption on EV. 

Many $$$ stay landed...

Charging had no issue. 

[Atonchia]

1 hour ago, Tedlhw said:

 

 A younger colleague said he won't buy car a few years ago but he just bought. 😂

----->>Rubbish one la. Wont buy a car, and CAN'T buy is  a huge difference.

Its an urban legend, that young generation dont want to buy cars. Much akin to the multi deca-millionaire/billionaire living in HDB flat..

 

 

Many many years ago I also said, "nah... I don't need car!" 

. 

. 

. 

Few years later.... 

Errr...Yah

need car for job

Family need car.....

I still don't need car...... 

I only providing comfort and convenience for my family.

😂😂😂

 

[Voodooman]

6 minutes ago, Atonchia said:

Many many years ago I also said, "nah... I don't need car!" 

. 

. 

. 

Few years later.... 

Errr...Yah

need car for job

Family need car.....

I still don't need car...... 

I only providing comfort and convenience for my family.

😂😂😂

 

So COE going to cross 100k soon. 😅

[Voodooman]

10 hours ago, Kar_lover said:

Yes but that won't push the COE to 90k or more. We already witnessed a recent psychological barrier of around 50k (for Cat B & E). 

With monthly quota of 2,000 for Cat B  now vs 600-700 Cat B papers in  2012, when COE was at $90+k.  

If (may not happen) COE quota were to drop to 600-700 a month for Cat B, what would be the premium?  

This chart must be quite memorable for @ER-3682and @Weez911.

[Thaiyotakamli]

Now covid no one travel, everyone bonus piling up, buy property got absd, buy new car better😆

[Ct3833]

Nobody knows if COE will go to $100K again.  But maybe we can make some educated guess.

Lets assume the factors that will influence COE price like economy, demand and government policies remain no change, the only variable is COE quota allocation itself - lesser COE allocation, higher COE price. 

Take 2013 for example, COE of both Cat A and B went up to >$90k. 
If we look at the  COE quota allocation during the same period, it was about  400 COE for Cat A and 360 pieces for Cat B per bidding exercise, the allocation amount is  low by any period in the history.   

So now we know  COE price will go to $100k if COE quota will to  drop to about 400 per Cat per bidding exercises. The question is,  will 2023 repeat the same situation since all the  cars that were registered in 2013 will be due for scrap in 2023? Lets look at the table below, there are 14,517 to be due for scrap, which is a very low number.

If these 14,517  cars to be scrapped and recycle for COE, the average COE allocation would be 14,517/ 12(month)/ 2( exercise per month) /2 CATs, this works out to be about 302 per CAT per exercise, this is even lower than when it was in 2013 itself. We may ask, where have the rest of cars registered in 2013 gone to? Some of those high COE cars have been scrapped for their high COE value over the last few years.

In that case, basing on this allocation alone, COE will likely to go above $100k. But not to forget, we have those 5 years revalidated COE to be recycled. Fortunately, nearly 70%  of the revalidated COE in 2017 are for 5 years, these cars will be due for scrap in 2023, meaning there will be a staggering 21,747 COE for recycle in 2023.

If we add 14,517 and 21,417 COE, the combined  COE available will be 35,934. Further breakdown the monthly allocation per Cat from this figure, it works out to be 748 per Cat per exercise.

Common sense tells us that 748 per cat per exercise would cause some increase in COE price from the current level,  but will be reach $100k? Chances is not.

Dont hold me for it, this is my high level assumption, I could be wrong with my assumption, feel free to point out my oversights if any.

Edited March 8, 2021 by Ct3833

[macrosszero]

12 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

Pain is good. 
i wish it will be $200k

that should weed out those who cant afford.  
and the roads will be  clear, correct? Thats what the govt want, isnt it?  
let it happen lah... 

The roads won’t be clear because the quota remains the quota. If there are 700 COE for that bid, $1 or $100,000, there will be 700 COE released.

For the roads to be clear there needs to be negative vehicle population growth.

[Kar_lover]

8 hours ago, Thaiyotakamli said:

Now covid no one travel, everyone bonus piling up, buy property got absd, buy new car better😆

I no bonus T.T

[Throttle2]

26 minutes ago, Macrosszero said:

The roads won’t be clear because the quota remains the quota. If there are 700 COE for that bid, $1 or $100,000, there will be 700 COE released.

For the roads to be clear there needs to be negative vehicle population growth.

When people cant afford it , the COE population will be reduced lor.. 

It has been years that we hv been discussing COE. We all know its just bulls**t.  Bidding is bulls**t, the scheme and what it stands for is bulls**t

Perhaps it started out fine but life got complicated. . 

[macrosszero]

1 minute ago, Throttle2 said:

When people cant afford it , the COE population will be reduced lor.. 

It has been years that we hv been discussing COE. We all know its just bulls**t.  Bidding is bulls**t, the scheme and what it stands for is bulls**t

Perhaps it started out fine but life got complicated. . 

Yah lower quota clears the roads. High COE is a byproduct of scarce supply.

It’s less about congestion management and more about revenue raising.

So a degree of congestion and vehicle population is needed to optimize income. 

[Spidey10]

9 minutes ago, Kar_lover said:

I no bonus T.T

me too...confirm and double confirm no bonus but lucky still got job.

My car 5 plus years already, my mind is far from changing cars now....just drive until Gov say cannot drive!

can renew COE come 2025 for diesel cars...or must scrap?

I have no confidence, am sure gonna get screwed left, right for us peasants ...

[Karoon]

22 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

When people cant afford it , the COE population will be reduced lor.. 

It has been years that we hv been discussing COE. We all know its just bulls**t.  Bidding is bulls**t, the scheme and what it stands for is bulls**t

Perhaps it started out fine but life got complicated. . 

The scheme wouldnt be as 'profitable' without car dealers.

If only genuine buyers are allowed to bid, i believe we'd see a fairer system.

[Wildfaye29]

59 minutes ago, Macrosszero said:

The roads won’t be clear because the quota remains the quota. If there are 700 COE for that bid, $1 or $100,000, there will be 700 COE released.

For the roads to be clear there needs to be negative vehicle population growth.

For the roads to be clear. Must impose CB! Hahahaha

[Beehive3783]

8 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

Nobody knows if COE will go to $100K again.  But maybe we can make some educated guess.

Lets assume the factors that will influence COE price like economy, demand and government policies remain no change, the only variable is COE quota allocation itself - lesser COE allocation, higher COE price. 

Take 2013 for example, COE of both Cat A and B went up to >$90k. 
If we look at the  COE quota allocation during the same period, it was about  400 COE for Cat A and 360 pieces for Cat B per bidding exercise, the allocation amount is  low by any period in the history.   

So now we know  COE price will go to $100k if COE quota will to  drop to about 400 per Cat per bidding exercises. The question is,  will 2023 repeat the same situation since all the  cars that were registered in 2013 will be due for scrap in 2023? Lets look at the table below, there are 14,517 to be due for scrap, which is a very low number.

If these 14,517  cars to be scrapped and recycle for COE, the average COE allocation would be 14,517/ 12(month)/ 2( exercise per month) /2 CATs, this works out to be about 302 per CAT per exercise, this is even lower than when it was in 2013 itself. We may ask, where have the rest of cars registered in 2013 gone to? Some of those high COE cars have been scrapped for their high COE value over the last few years.

In that case, basing on this allocation alone, COE will likely to go above $100k. But not to forget, we have those 5 years revalidated COE to be recycled. Fortunately, nearly 70%  of the revalidated COE in 2017 are for 5 years, these cars will be due for scrap in 2023, meaning there will be a staggering 21,747 COE for recycle in 2023.

If we add 14,517 and 21,417 COE, the combined  COE available will be 35,934. Further breakdown the monthly allocation per Cat from this figure, it works out to be 748 per Cat per exercise.

Common sense tells us that 748 per cat per exercise would cause some increase in COE price from the current level,  but will be reach $100k? Chances is not.

Dont hold me for it, this is my high level assumption, I could be wrong with my assumption, feel free to point out my oversights if any.

The only wildcard you forgot is that LTA reserves all rights to decide on the COE quota as and when they like

And this, is how they really control COE bid prices.

[Volvobrick]

1 hour ago, Macrosszero said:

The roads won’t be clear because the quota remains the quota. If there are 700 COE for that bid, $1 or $100,000, there will be 700 COE released.

For the roads to be clear there needs to be negative vehicle population growth.

Will never be clear even if negative growth - the leotards will take over! 😄

[pengu]

8 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

Nobody knows if COE will go to $100K again.  But maybe we can make some educated guess.

Lets assume the factors that will influence COE price like economy, demand and government policies remain no change, the only variable is COE quota allocation itself - lesser COE allocation, higher COE price. 

Take 2013 for example, COE of both Cat A and B went up to >$90k. 
If we look at the  COE quota allocation during the same period, it was about  400 COE for Cat A and 360 pieces for Cat B per bidding exercise, the allocation amount is  low by any period in the history.   

So now we know  COE price will go to $100k if COE quota will to  drop to about 400 per Cat per bidding exercises. The question is,  will 2023 repeat the same situation since all the  cars that were registered in 2013 will be due for scrap in 2023? Lets look at the table below, there are 14,517 to be due for scrap, which is a very low number.

If these 14,517  cars to be scrapped and recycle for COE, the average COE allocation would be 14,517/ 12(month)/ 2( exercise per month) /2 CATs, this works out to be about 302 per CAT per exercise, this is even lower than when it was in 2013 itself. We may ask, where have the rest of cars registered in 2013 gone to? Some of those high COE cars have been scrapped for their high COE value over the last few years.

In that case, basing on this allocation alone, COE will likely to go above $100k. But not to forget, we have those 5 years revalidated COE to be recycled. Fortunately, nearly 70%  of the revalidated COE in 2017 are for 5 years, these cars will be due for scrap in 2023, meaning there will be a staggering 21,747 COE for recycle in 2023.

If we add 14,517 and 21,417 COE, the combined  COE available will be 35,934. Further breakdown the monthly allocation per Cat from this figure, it works out to be 748 per Cat per exercise.

Common sense tells us that 748 per cat per exercise would cause some increase in COE price from the current level,  but will be reach $100k? Chances is not.

Dont hold me for it, this is my high level assumption, I could be wrong with my assumption, feel free to point out my oversights if any.

It isn’t 14517 to be scrap, cause some of it will be renewing COE. If the COE price is high, more will choose to renew rather than scrapping and getting new car.

[inlinesix]

24 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

oh....right. You never know, the government may one day decided to reduce the COE quota by 1% per year. Then everyone panicked and come into the market like crazy....that's how COE will reach 100k. It might in their backroom planning. 

We are heading towards NEGATIVE GROWTH by next year.

Car population (including PHV) continues to grow