Jump to content

Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly


awhtc
 Share

Recommended Posts

Confirm there will be buyers panic buy one. Now chiong to showroom place downpayment in time for today’s bidding or not ah? 🤣

Who say COVID is hard times? You all see COE keep rising. Singaporeans are rich! 

↡ Advertisement
Link to post
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, awhtc said:

 

We are comparing against different periods for the PHVs.  Yours should be the 2016-2018 Uber and Grab expansion period and the demand of COEs for PHVs is definitely lower now.

Mine is relative to 2011-2015 period when PHVs did not exist.  E.g. if Cat A COE quota per tender is 700, 50-100 could be taken up by people who are driving as PHVs.  The effective quota available for personal use is therefore even lower.

$100k COE will be worrying even for those who own a car now.  They will need to start saving for their next car or COE renewal a few years down the road.

those who got the COE during low will still have time to wait, and they will likely to get it low again if they keep the car for 10 years. The problem is those who are still holding on to the cars during 2012 to 2014, they will continue to buy high buy high unless they break the cycle by buying high sell low.  COE $100k is a likely reality,  lets not be too worried about this fact. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Kyrios said:

Dilemma..car is 6 years old this month...should i wait till GE 2025 when usually prices will soften? 😆

You may be right, the price may soften during GE 2025. But the scenario could be coe at 95k in 2024 and it soften to 85k in 2025. 😅

 

  • Sad 1
  • Haha! 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mikk123 said:

The COE is not designed with sudden order of a few hundred of cars by PHV. When COE was created, there was no PHV, just retail buyers. Now the PHV got billions to burn, the retail buyer can't afford to compete. COE system needs adjustment. Government has no incentive to adjust because their collection of COE money is not affected. The ones who suffer the most are the average people who for some reasons really need a rider, like working in sales, with elderly and young ones....

What you said is true if COE is bidded by buyer.

Link to post
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Kyrios said:

Dilemma..car is 6 years old this month...should i wait till GE 2025 when usually prices will soften? 😆

if you change now, you will have to take a heavy loss on your existing car , and would still be paying for the fairly  high COE now. The better alterative might be to wait for 4 more years, continue to ride on the linear depre of your car now. in 4 years time, looking at the trend, COE price should be lower than now , provided no unforeseen surprises. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Supercharged
6 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

The COE is not designed with sudden order of a few hundred of cars by PHV. When COE was created, there was no PHV, just retail buyers. Now the PHV got billions to burn, the retail buyer can't afford to compete. COE system needs adjustment. Government has no incentive to adjust because their collection of COE money is not affected. The ones who suffer the most are the average people who for some reasons really need a rider, like working in sales, with elderly and young ones....

COE is not meant to prevent suffering of average people.

COE is bidding process where highest bidder wins for luxury non-essential item, like auction for Mona Lisa painting. No money please don't come and try

COE purpose is to do absolute restriction on vehicle numbers to prevent congestion and more important provide highest amount $$ for public coffers.

It is difficult to imagine someone who will die or cannot work if they cannot get a cheap ride. There are alternatives like BMW, Grab, BlueSG etc

  • Praise 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Turbocharged
14 minutes ago, Ct3833 said:

if you change now, you will have to take a heavy loss on your existing car , and would still be paying for the fairly  high COE now. The better alterative might be to wait for 4 more years, continue to ride on the linear depre of your car now. in 4 years time, looking at the trend, COE price should be lower than now , provided no unforeseen surprises. 

Lets say we talk about used cars only.  I have been consistently monitoring 2nd hand car prices.  I know for some models, the used car prices/depre have not been adjusted much even though the COE hiked earlier this year. If lets say I really wanna change car, those are the type of models I am gunning for.

For BM and merc, of course the used car prices have jumped tremendously. Last time you can get a used CLA for about 11K depre. Nowadays that has since jumped to 14K depre. So those are the glamour models to avoid. Another case in point, Audi A5 Sportback….the depre has all along stuck at 15-16 depre...even now you can still get a fairly recent model at 15K depre...those are the models I might aim for. Needs consistent tracking in order not to, like you say, pay for the undue increased prices due to COE hike.  Unfortunately many other models have their prices adjusted upwards quite a bit by the 2nd hand dealers. So really lan lan

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

What you said is true if COE is bidded by buyer.

COE might be slightly lower if bidding is done by buyers themselves but it won't change much the up and down trend, as it is driven largely by demand and supply. 

  • Praise 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Twincharged
7 minutes ago, Kyrios said:

Lets say we talk about used cars only.  I have been consistently monitoring 2nd hand car prices.  I know for some models, the used car prices/depre have not been adjusted much even though the COE hiked earlier this year. If lets say I really wanna change car, those are the type of models I am gunning for.

 

typical cold door cars. eg hyundai sonata, nissan sylphy, chevy cruze etc

Edited by Mkl22
Link to post
Share on other sites

Turbocharged
4 minutes ago, Mkl22 said:

typical cold door cars. eg hyundai sonata, nissan sylphy etc

Brudder you may be surprised..some cold door brands or models like Skoda / Seat actually jumped up a lot....beware...

I monitored their prices as well..

  • Praise 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Noob question - if the COE is 60k ,were there 60000 people bidding for this COE.Doesn't it start at $1 and then rise ( like an eBay bid 😃

Link to post
Share on other sites

Given that COE used to cost $100k long ago, and the general increase in income over the years (median\average), the gradual rise in COE is not out of tandem.  With the influx of rich foreigners, and the reduction in coe quota due to car lite, this is exacerbated.

Edited by Ingenius
  • Haha! 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, awhtc said:

Compared to 2011 to 2015 when the COE supply was low, the situation is worse now as a lot of COEs are taken up by PHV operators and car rental companies.  Hence, the COEs available for bidding for personal use is lesser than the previous period.  I'm expecting Cat A to return to $60k and Cat B to go beyond $80k by early next year.

Not to mention increased immigration, income rise and inflation. Prices may rise above previous peak 

Link to post
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, t0y0ta said:

COE is not meant to prevent suffering of average people.

COE is bidding process where highest bidder wins for luxury non-essential item, like auction for Mona Lisa painting. No money please don't come and try

COE purpose is to do absolute restriction on vehicle numbers to prevent congestion and more important provide highest amount $$ for public coffers.

It is difficult to imagine someone who will die or cannot work if they cannot get a cheap ride. There are alternatives like BMW, Grab, BlueSG etc

That's why when coe is high, the best selling cars are the top German brands

Link to post
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Kyrios said:

Brudder you may be surprised..some cold door brands or models like Skoda / Seat actually jumped up a lot....beware...

I monitored their prices as well..

If COE rise by $10k, a 1 yo car should rise by 9k max. Of course, that doesn't mean the dealer is not trying to profit more from rising coe

  • Haha! 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Voodooman said:

Yes, it is a demand and supply game. Everyone should have learnt to play the game. It is getting predictable. 

At least on the supply side cycle.

↡ Advertisement
  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...