Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly

[Ho2786]

5 hours ago, awhtc said:

 

The good old days in 2018-2019 will never come back again.

The Cat A and Cat B bottoms around 2008-2009 were close to $0.  In 2018-2019, they were around $25k and $31k.  In 2028-2029, they could be about $50k and $62k.

This means the highs now could be the bottoms of the next cycle in 2028-2029 😅

in 2028 or 2029

I may not need a car any more

my current car is the last of the mohicans.

Bus, Mrt and Walk are the future.

 

[Ct3833]

4 hours ago, t0y0ta said:

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

 

it is cyclical, 2 years later when COE exceeds 100k, people will say COE price at 70k today looks cheap . then 5 years later when COE price drops again, people will ask should they scrap the 100k COE and buy a car with a cheaper COE.  This is one reason MCF continues to have active posts.😄

[Voodooman]

2 hours ago, Ho2786 said:

in 2028 or 2029

I may not need a car any more

my current car is the last of the mohicans.

Bus, Mrt and Walk are the future.

 

How old will you be by then? 

[Voodooman]

5 hours ago, t0y0ta said:

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

 

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

[Ginyu]

1 hour ago, Voodooman said:

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

During start of COVID, they say COE sure crash, be patient but now  almost 2 years already and where is the $2 COE🤣

[awhtc]

1 hour ago, Voodooman said:

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

Covid has made driving fashionable again.

'Fashionable' not to own or drive a car in Singapore: Sitoh Yih Pin

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/fashionable-not-drive-car-singapore-sitoh-yih-pin-074512836.html

[Ho2786]

2 hours ago, Voodooman said:

How old will you be by then? 

in 10 years time most probably in kiwi land

driving a 911 for the cost of a  SG Toyota corolla

[Voodooman]

1 hour ago, awhtc said:

Covid has made driving fashionable again.

'Fashionable' not to own or drive a car in Singapore: Sitoh Yih Pin

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/fashionable-not-drive-car-singapore-sitoh-yih-pin-074512836.html

Driving was never not fashionable in SG lah.

Wish it will be so that I can continue to drive without paying through the nose. 

[Ct3833]

5 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

Driving was never not fashionable in SG lah.

Wish it will be so that I can continue to drive without paying through the nose. 

Eh eh eh, we all have a choice.😅😅. 

[james1055]

1 hour ago, Ginyu said:

During start of COVID, they say COE sure crash, be patient but now  almost 2 years already and where is the $2 COE🤣

I agree with you totally during CB, I jump in thinking the COE will dropped but after 6 to 8 bid, finally get back my deposit and continue to drive my existing car.

[Jamesc]

COE is cheap, buy now

November 2013 Cat B COE was S$84,578

What people never take account is inflation.

$50k COE in 2007 is not the same as $50k COE in 2021

$50k COE in 2007 is higher than in 2021 because 

people never take into account inflation over the 14 years!

Can anyone lend me $10k today

and I will pay you back $10k in 14 years time?

Will you be happy you don't lose even 1 cent?

No right?

So if you take account of inflation COE is cheap!

Edited October 9, 2021 by Jamesc

[Mkl22]

On 10/8/2021 at 5:17 PM, ZMC said:

There are about 635'000 passenger cars in SG...so the vast majority are taking public transport or grab/uber/taxis.

Think the demand dropped because population dropped from 5.69 to 5.45 million too.

I think majority of the drop in population are the migrant workers. They don’t buy cars. 

[Mkl22]

10 hours ago, t0y0ta said:

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

 

Yup. But if you look at the chart. You hardly see any cars from the 10-15year range. Vs now. So quite a bit of the quota numbers are taken up to extend coe. Thus instead of a 10year cycle where you see most of the coe recycled after 10years, it’s now closer to 15, so the 600k cars are spread over 15years instead of 10years about a decade ago. So likely less supply a year means prices will be up. 

[ER-3682]

4 hours ago, Voodooman said:

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

Funeral Business are Tough,but earned alot,you don't know meh.?

[Ho2786]

don't worry lah coe price will drop wan

just don't know when only

[lexiton]

On 10/9/2021 at 5:29 PM, Ginyu said:

During start of COVID, they say COE sure crash, be patient but now  almost 2 years already and where is the $2 COE🤣

in their dreams probably

 

and thank god I didn't listen these jokers and manage to get my coe in July 2020 immediately after CB ended

Edited October 11, 2021 by lexiton

[Mann123]

100K COE game on >>

The COE supply for Cat A cars (up to 1,600cc and 130bhp) will average 1,063, a sizable 33.8% drop down from the current average of 1,605.

Meanwhile, the COE supply for Cat B (above 1,600cc or 130bhp) will average 1,173, down from the current average of 1,541.

 

https://www.sgcarmart.com/news/article.php?AID=25752

[Jamesc]

$2 COE?

Where is that joker that kept saying COE will fall to $10k