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Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly


awhtc
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2 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

If I asked them to bid $30k while PQP is at $80k, will they accept my booking?

please do that … i think the dealer face will be blacker than hawker chan wok … lol

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4 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

Many years ago people already predict COE will reach 200k, dont say never say, better quick quick place your booking now.😄😄😄😄

 

IMG-20211020-WA0038.jpg

this article was before phv release?

cus apparently many taxi fleet surplus now

 

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We must take into consideration that the recovery from Covid is K shaped. It means that although some will face economic pain and difficulties, there is another group who are benefitting from the situation. Since the Singapore car market is a finite one where there is a limited supply, car dealers do not need to worry about the lack of demand. The pool of buyers they are serving has deep pockets and are flush with cash. This is evident from the clear difference between Cat A and Cat B COE.  Cat A dealers will try to maintain the price to be affordable but the Cat B (and Cat E) will probably move much higher.

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Thankfully, the drastic rise in cat b hasn't lead to a spillover of demands to cat a, so cat a still remains a distant price and stays relatively affordable. Can you imagine if cat a is around cat b price ? That will be the end of bread and butter cars. 

Edited by Ingenius
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12 minutes ago, Ingenius said:

Thankfully, the drastic rise in cat b hasn't lead to a spillover of demands to cat a, so cat a still remains a distant price and stays relatively affordable. Can you imagine if cat a is around cat b price ? That will be the end of bread and butter cars. 

If history is a guide, in 2011 a similarly large price gap was created when Cat B shot up very quickly.  1.5 years later, the price gap narrowed and finally merged in 2013.  Hence, by mid-2022 Cat A should start to close the gap as demand from Cat B spills over to Cat A.

However, in 2022 there will be another ARF incentive for EVs that may cause Cat B car prices to hit well over $100k.  We could be looking at an extended gap of $30-50k between Cat A and B until 2023 with both on the upward trend from 2021 to 2023 before stabilising in 2024.

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49 minutes ago, awhtc said:

If history is a guide, in 2011 a similarly large price gap was created when Cat B shot up very quickly.  1.5 years later, the price gap narrowed and finally merged in 2013.  Hence, by mid-2022 Cat A should start to close the gap as demand from Cat B spills over to Cat A.

However, in 2022 there will be another ARF incentive for EVs that may cause Cat B car prices to hit well over $100k.  We could be looking at an extended gap of $30-50k between Cat A and B until 2023 with both on the upward trend from 2021 to 2023 before stabilising in 2024.

At one point Cat A was higher than Cat B

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@awhtc Good analysis ! Thanks. So this means that we still have a few years to buy b&b cars at relatively affordable price, before everyone drives a mercedez or nothing else.

 

Edited by Ingenius
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16 minutes ago, Ingenius said:

@awhtc Good analysis ! Thanks. So this means that we still have a few years to buy b&b cars at relatively affordable price, before everyone drives a mercedez or nothing else.

 

Err .. no .. not really.. those rich parents may want to buy cheap 3 cylinders bmw or merc with Renault engines for their kids to drive n push the prices up 

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11 minutes ago, kobayashiGT said:

 $200,000???? This is super duper hyper inflation sia.

it's not inflation ... it simply means "we" cannot afford only [bigcry] 

many others can afford ... 

.

.

.

hopefully by 2025 ... i will be driving a laopok porky 997 in msia liao :grin:

Edited by Wt_know
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24 minutes ago, kobayashiGT said:

  

$200,000???? This is super duper hyper inflation sia.

 

Old article dating from November 2015 - note that there isn't even mention about PHV and they have steadily overtaken taxis on the road. And who is CLSA to offer a published opinion on COE anyway?

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2 minutes ago, Macrosszero said:

Old article dating from November 2015 - note that there isn't even mention about PHV and they have steadily overtaken taxis on the road. And who is CLSA to offer a published opinion on COE anyway?

normal ma ... anal-ist can brag whatever shit they want in 2015 and hopefully no wonder question their prediction in 2025 ... lol

may be they can predict next year 4D numbers too ... tio or not ... who keep track :grin:

Edited by Wt_know
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36 minutes ago, kobayashiGT said:

 image.thumb.png.e6eb692a9b7c17e677188a5d948c47f1.png 

$200,000???? This is super duper hyper inflation sia.

 

After u kanna Pofma 😂 

lets say you are right. 200k is the new norm. How will the landscape of the car be ?

obviously super carlite.. 

probably only those that have deep pockets will buy n no one will extend their coe.. 😂 

I still believe before that happens, carpark space will be a hot commodity to be sold like HK.

that’s the last part of milking the cash cow that has not been touched and will plowed back money into the reserve 

Edited by Sdf4786k
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