Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly

[Ct3833]

20 minutes ago, Eyke said:

is also self-fulfilling: when dealer price in higher COE cost into selling price, they can then afford to bid/drive up the COE price.

end of day, everyone happy except for car buyers.

Car buyers are also happy, who buy new car not happy ? 😄😄

[Mkl22]

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

it is not about rushing in. There are 600,000 cars on the road, basing on linear aging, there would be 2,500 old cars need to be replaced every 2 weeks, this translates into demand for number of COEs. Granted that there are lesser 10 year old car now, the demand would still consider high, at least higher  than the 1,000+ COE per bidding pre exercise. 
In addition, some people will have their reasons of changing cars earlier, for example, their old cars breakdown too often, receiving a sudden windfall, extra cash, just walk out from a crisis that he feels he should pamper himself more, deperately wanting a EV , new first time buyers from the 5m population etc,  all these add up. Due to the lower COE quota,  any small incremental in  demand would result in a huge jump in COE price. 

I would say the coes are now spread over 15years than 10years. 

[JaguarXF]

6 hours ago, awhtc said:

If COE goes up to $100k+, the PHVs and taxis will be very expensive also.  I think COE will continue to climb before plateauing from the end of 2023 to 2025, thereafter they will come down gradually.  Cat A and Cat B may never see sub-$40k and sub-$60k again.

I gota feeling COEs in the future will see $100k as "low" and 200k as normal after taking into consideration the number of wealthy foreigners attracted to stay long term in Singapore. Electric cars too contribute to the boom of the COEs. The supply is not going up. That is the main issue.

[Didu]

The Big Read: More people buying cars amid pandemic, even as those who own them are driving less

• Car owners here have generally been clocking lower mileage since COVID-19 made remote working the norm.
• But demand for cars — long seen as status symbols — remains robust, as evidenced by high COE premiums and growing private car ownership.
• One car broker describes it as a “strange” phenomenon, with car sales and prices continuing to head north.
• Experts say COVID-19 has caused much disruption to travel patterns and forced a relook of tested transport strategies.
• The demand for cars may not bode well for Singapore’s car-lite ambition, though improving public transport and exploring alternative mobility devices are just as key, they say.

Over the course of the pandemic, the car population (excluding private hire cars and taxis) had risen by almost 4 per cent at the start of last year to about 577,000 by the end of September this year, based on latest available data from the Land Transport Authority (LTA). 

Transport engineering consultant Gopinath Menon pointed out that there will always be a segment of the population who want to own cars and are prepared to pay high prices for them.

“They have a variety of reasons such as greater comfort, greater convenience especially for social trips and when they have a young family, public health in times of pandemic and prestige,” he said.

COVID-19 has also forced a relook of tested transport strategies, said Mr Menon. Whereas older strategies are aimed at meeting the peak period demand of bringing people to work and home, the pandemic has shown that it is possible to work from anywhere and at flexible hours.

“All these have been talked about in transport circles for many years with calls to conduct trials, but now they have been forced on us and they are working fairly well,” Mr Menon said.

Transport analyst Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University said that the pressing issue now is to observe whether the current travel patterns will stick.

“This is an odd situation where the private car population has increased but the road usage has actually declined. So in terms of actual emissions, I think we are actually doing well,” he said. He reiterated that the “real question” is how people will behave when life gets back to some semblance of normalcy.

“You can arbitrarily limit the number of cars, but will people step back onto the trains and buses as they used to in the same packed densities as pre-pandemic levels?”

And if not, he questioned: “Then what are the alternatives?”

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/car-sale-coe-prices-premiums-driving-covid-19-pandemic-2295731

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Didu

[Volvobrick]

5 hours ago, mikk123 said:

. I wonder why would other countries didn't follow our example? this is much better than increasing GST! Our top overseas scholars are really brilliant at collecting money from the ground ! Good job!  additional month of bonus for you! 

Cos it will kill their auto industries....All the auto workers will vote their gahmens out.

[Gnahp]

Quote

Transport analyst Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University said that the pressing issue now is to observe whether the current travel patterns will stick.

“This is an odd situation where the private car population has increased but the road usage has actually declined. So in terms of actual emissions, I think we are actually doing well,” he said. He reiterated that the “real question” is how people will behave when life gets back to some semblance of normalcy.

He doesn't know LTA freeze car population growth till 2025?

He also doesn't know more cars on the road because of PHV?

Transport analyst from the Singapore Management University?

 

 

[awhtc]

International trade should be resuming to normal very soon with the availability of Covid treatment pills.  GDP growth should be very strong from Q4 2021 onwards.

How does Merck's Covid-19 pill compare with Pfizer's?

Pfizer said on Friday (Nov 5) trial results showed that its pill reduced the chance of hospitalisation or death by 89 per cent in Covid-19 patients at risk for severe illness given the treatment within three days of the onset of symptoms and by 85 per cent when given within five days of onset.

Merck - known as MSD outside the United States and Canada - on Oct 1 said its pill lowered the chance of hospitalisation or death by about 50 per cent in patients at risk for severe illness given the treatment within five days of onset. It did not provide figures regarding patients getting the pill within three days of onset.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/how-does-mercks-covid-19-pill-compare-to-pfizers

 

[awhtc]

A better economy means more income and higher demand for cars.

 

S'pore to see strong recovery in 2021/22 despite pandemic resurgence risks: Economists

SINGAPORE - Backed by targeted government support and external demand, Singapore's economy has rebounded since the second half of 2020 and is now expected to grow "strongly" this year and next, economists from the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) said on Monday (Nov 8).

After contracting by 5.4 per cent in 2020, Singapore's gross domestic product is forecast to expand by 6.5 per cent this year before moderating to 4 per cent in 2022. The higher levels of growth will be driven by robust employment and domestic spending, as well as external demand over the shorter term, and a recovery in tourism and hospitality over the longer term, the report said.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/spore-to-see-strong-recovery-in-202122-despite-pandemic-resurgence-risks-economists

[D3badge]

16 hours ago, Didu said:

The Big Read: More people buying cars amid pandemic, even as those who own them are driving less

• Car owners here have generally been clocking lower mileage since COVID-19 made remote working the norm.
• But demand for cars — long seen as status symbols — remains robust, as evidenced by high COE premiums and growing private car ownership.
• One car broker describes it as a “strange” phenomenon, with car sales and prices continuing to head north.
• Experts say COVID-19 has caused much disruption to travel patterns and forced a relook of tested transport strategies.
• The demand for cars may not bode well for Singapore’s car-lite ambition, though improving public transport and exploring alternative mobility devices are just as key, they say.

Over the course of the pandemic, the car population (excluding private hire cars and taxis) had risen by almost 4 per cent at the start of last year to about 577,000 by the end of September this year, based on latest available data from the Land Transport Authority (LTA). 

Transport engineering consultant Gopinath Menon pointed out that there will always be a segment of the population who want to own cars and are prepared to pay high prices for them.

“They have a variety of reasons such as greater comfort, greater convenience especially for social trips and when they have a young family, public health in times of pandemic and prestige,” he said.

COVID-19 has also forced a relook of tested transport strategies, said Mr Menon. Whereas older strategies are aimed at meeting the peak period demand of bringing people to work and home, the pandemic has shown that it is possible to work from anywhere and at flexible hours.

“All these have been talked about in transport circles for many years with calls to conduct trials, but now they have been forced on us and they are working fairly well,” Mr Menon said.

Transport analyst Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University said that the pressing issue now is to observe whether the current travel patterns will stick.

“This is an odd situation where the private car population has increased but the road usage has actually declined. So in terms of actual emissions, I think we are actually doing well,” he said. He reiterated that the “real question” is how people will behave when life gets back to some semblance of normalcy.

“You can arbitrarily limit the number of cars, but will people step back onto the trains and buses as they used to in the same packed densities as pre-pandemic levels?”

And if not, he questioned: “Then what are the alternatives?”

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/car-sale-coe-prices-premiums-driving-covid-19-pandemic-2295731

 

can we do a honest MCF survey? "does your car milage goes up, down or flat the last 1 year"? because alot of newspaper articles assume because WFH mean less usage of car? Because both my wife and my cars milage usage goes up since Covid 😂 

[D3badge]

20 hours ago, sg100179 said:

@Mahjong74 In fact I have never driven so much mileage than now. WFH is having more driving around than parking it at the office. I always think I can commute to work via public transport but not WFH. It sounds weird but it's true. You need a car more WFH. 

haha haha agreed. like my posting here the milage for both cars, my wife and myself increase! 😁

 

 

[DOBIEMKZ]

1 hour ago, mikk123 said:

great news! COE 300K? HUAT Ah!  

[Calvin8808]

59 minutes ago, D3badge said:

can we do a honest MCF survey? "does your car milage goes up, down or flat the last 1 year"? because alot of newspaper articles assume because WFH mean less usage of car? Because both my wife and my cars milage usage goes up since Covid 😂 

 

47 minutes ago, D3badge said:

haha haha agreed. like my posting here the milage for both cars, my wife and myself increase! 😁

 

 

My mileage decrease but FC increase due to now driving patterns are short distance rather than long distance

[Macrosszero]

17 hours ago, Didu said:

The Big Read: More people buying cars amid pandemic, even as those who own them are driving less

• Car owners here have generally been clocking lower mileage since COVID-19 made remote working the norm.
• But demand for cars — long seen as status symbols — remains robust, as evidenced by high COE premiums and growing private car ownership.
• One car broker describes it as a “strange” phenomenon, with car sales and prices continuing to head north.
• Experts say COVID-19 has caused much disruption to travel patterns and forced a relook of tested transport strategies.
• The demand for cars may not bode well for Singapore’s car-lite ambition, though improving public transport and exploring alternative mobility devices are just as key, they say.

Over the course of the pandemic, the car population (excluding private hire cars and taxis) had risen by almost 4 per cent at the start of last year to about 577,000 by the end of September this year, based on latest available data from the Land Transport Authority (LTA). 

Transport engineering consultant Gopinath Menon pointed out that there will always be a segment of the population who want to own cars and are prepared to pay high prices for them.

“They have a variety of reasons such as greater comfort, greater convenience especially for social trips and when they have a young family, public health in times of pandemic and prestige,” he said.

COVID-19 has also forced a relook of tested transport strategies, said Mr Menon. Whereas older strategies are aimed at meeting the peak period demand of bringing people to work and home, the pandemic has shown that it is possible to work from anywhere and at flexible hours.

“All these have been talked about in transport circles for many years with calls to conduct trials, but now they have been forced on us and they are working fairly well,” Mr Menon said.

Transport analyst Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University said that the pressing issue now is to observe whether the current travel patterns will stick.

“This is an odd situation where the private car population has increased but the road usage has actually declined. So in terms of actual emissions, I think we are actually doing well,” he said. He reiterated that the “real question” is how people will behave when life gets back to some semblance of normalcy.

“You can arbitrarily limit the number of cars, but will people step back onto the trains and buses as they used to in the same packed densities as pre-pandemic levels?”

And if not, he questioned: “Then what are the alternatives?”

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/car-sale-coe-prices-premiums-driving-covid-19-pandemic-2295731

 

Mr. Anal-yst not on the same page as government meh? Restrict use not restrict population, so maintaining or increasing vehicle populations enables fixed duties, taxes, COE to still be collected, while the cars are on the roads less. If you look at the annualized cost of your car expenses you’ll find that the variable cost is a fraction of the fixed cost, merely fuel, parking, maintenance, ERP and incidental fines. All else - depreciation, road tax, insurance are fixed.

[Atachi]

Seems like our reserves expenditure will be back in no time, prob even have surplus.

9% GST coming up, GST for low-value imports, Petrol up, HDB claw back subsidies (PLH for now), public fares up, ERPs and the on going debate of wealth tax. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Atachi

[JaguarXF]

17 hours ago, Phang said:

He doesn't know LTA freeze car population growth till 2025?

He also doesn't know more cars on the road because of PHV?

Transport analyst from the Singapore Management University?

 

 

He donno there are many FTs being welcomed into Singapore daily. Every other day I picked up my calls from customers, half are FT. no joke. 

[Jtis]

1 hour ago, D3badge said:

can we do a honest MCF survey? "does your car milage goes up, down or flat the last 1 year"? because alot of newspaper articles assume because WFH mean less usage of car? Because both my wife and my cars milage usage goes up since Covid 😂 

Mine is down for sure. Not really high mileage driver pre-covid, about 10-11k km per yr. Now, I do about 1k km per quarter....If I drive, it is mostly short trips around neighbourhood. 

[Micb]

16 hours ago, awhtc said:

International trade should be resuming to normal very soon with the availability of Covid treatment pills.  GDP growth should be very strong from Q4 2021 onwards.

How does Merck's Covid-19 pill compare with Pfizer's?

Pfizer said on Friday (Nov 5) trial results showed that its pill reduced the chance of hospitalisation or death by 89 per cent in Covid-19 patients at risk for severe illness given the treatment within three days of the onset of symptoms and by 85 per cent when given within five days of onset.

Merck - known as MSD outside the United States and Canada - on Oct 1 said its pill lowered the chance of hospitalisation or death by about 50 per cent in patients at risk for severe illness given the treatment within five days of onset. It did not provide figures regarding patients getting the pill within three days of onset.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/how-does-mercks-covid-19-pill-compare-to-pfizers

 

Hi there,  

The clinical test protocols and evaluation parameters differ between this 2 brands, so looking at the efficacy % is not conclusive enough to know which pill will be more effective.    Need more test data from these manufacturers.

 

[Atachi]

36 minutes ago, JaguarXF said:

He donno there are many FTs being welcomed into Singapore daily. Every other day I picked up my calls from customers, half are FT. no joke. 

Need to open eyes to see who exactly are the ones buying resale prices at ATH with cash after COV 😉 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Atachi