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Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly

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4th Gear

heng ah

I don't need COE for the next 8 years

huat ah

 

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5th Gear
6 hours ago, Ho2786 said:

heng ah

I don't need COE for the next 8 years

huat ah

 

 

The good old days in 2018-2019 will never come back again.

The Cat A and Cat B bottoms around 2008-2009 were close to $0.  In 2018-2019, they were around $25k and $31k.  In 2028-2029, they could be about $50k and $62k.

This means the highs now could be the bottoms of the next cycle in 2028-2029 😅

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Twincharged
1 hour ago, awhtc said:

 

The good old days in 2018-2019 will never come back again.

The Cat A and Cat B bottoms around 2008-2009 were close to $0.  In 2018-2019, they were around $25k and $31k.  In 2028-2029, they could be about $50k and $62k.

This means the highs now could be the bottoms of the next cycle in 2028-2029 😅

COE price will continue to go up over the next two years, but low cycle will come back in 2025 or 2026 when more cars are due for scrap; provided the invisible hands don't do anything to disrupt the eco system

 

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2nd Gear
9 hours ago, Albeniz said:

Singapore HDB flat is too small.

A lot of Singaporeans are  buying cars to function as store rooms.

Think those Mickey Mouse units are  even smaller. Just step in from main door can see the kitchen🤣

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Supersonic
9 hours ago, Albeniz said:

Singapore HDB flat is too small.

A lot of Singaporeans are  buying cars to function as store rooms.

Storage warehouse is cheaper to rent than car.

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6th Gear
1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

COE price will continue to go up over the next two years, but low cycle will come back in 2025 or 2026 when more cars are due for scrap; provided the invisible hands don't do anything to disrupt the eco system

 

Invisible hands like PHV companies?

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Supercharged (edited)

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

image.thumb.png.6acd7bee263f0562f0397983d55f9168.png

 

Edited by t0y0ta
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Twincharged
22 minutes ago, Lotr said:

Invisible hands like PHV companies?

Like the LTA, MAS😅😅😅

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4th Gear
5 hours ago, awhtc said:

 

The good old days in 2018-2019 will never come back again.

The Cat A and Cat B bottoms around 2008-2009 were close to $0.  In 2018-2019, they were around $25k and $31k.  In 2028-2029, they could be about $50k and $62k.

This means the highs now could be the bottoms of the next cycle in 2028-2029 😅

in 2028 or 2029

I may not need a car any more

my current car is the last of the mohicans.

Bus, Mrt and Walk are the future.

 

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Twincharged
4 hours ago, t0y0ta said:

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

image.thumb.png.6acd7bee263f0562f0397983d55f9168.png

 

it is cyclical, 2 years later when COE exceeds 100k, people will say COE price at 70k today looks cheap . then 5 years later when COE price drops again, people will ask should they scrap the 100k COE and buy a car with a cheaper COE.  This is one reason MCF continues to have active posts.😄

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Twincharged
2 hours ago, Ho2786 said:

in 2028 or 2029

I may not need a car any more

my current car is the last of the mohicans.

Bus, Mrt and Walk are the future.

 

How old will you be by then? 

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Twincharged
5 hours ago, t0y0ta said:

In the COE poverty years of 2011-2014, only 20+ k new cars per year was registered.

I think we are still much better supply today.

2021 1st half (Jan-Jun) already 22k vehicles registered, total year should be just below 40k.

But COE is already 70-80k. Note that previous peak in 2013 was around 90k+

We are reaching peak even though COE supply is much more than last trough... it means that demand is on average higher. The new peak in 2023 should be >100k

image.thumb.png.6acd7bee263f0562f0397983d55f9168.png

 

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

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2nd Gear
1 hour ago, Voodooman said:

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

During start of COVID, they say COE sure crash, be patient but now  almost 2 years already and where is the $2 COE🤣

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5th Gear
1 hour ago, Voodooman said:

More and more people like Radx who changes car every 2-3 years without batting an eyelid plus inflation. 

A few years back, I was debating with a forumer on where COE will go from $30-40k level.  I bought in 2018/19.  He argued that many millennials will go carless. Looks like he is still waiting for his $20k COE. 

Come on, if can afford, who wants to take public transport (don't mistake exception exceptions as the norm)?

 

Covid has made driving fashionable again.

'Fashionable' not to own or drive a car in Singapore: Sitoh Yih Pin

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/fashionable-not-drive-car-singapore-sitoh-yih-pin-074512836.html

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4th Gear
2 hours ago, Voodooman said:

How old will you be by then? 

in 10 years time most probably in kiwi land

driving a 911 for the cost of a  SG Toyota corolla

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Twincharged
5 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

Driving was never not fashionable in SG lah.

Wish it will be so that I can continue to drive without paying through the nose. 

Eh eh eh, we all have a choice.😅😅

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1st Gear
1 hour ago, Ginyu said:

During start of COVID, they say COE sure crash, be patient but now  almost 2 years already and where is the $2 COE🤣

I agree with you totally during CB, I jump in thinking the COE will dropped but after 6 to 8 bid, finally get back my deposit and continue to drive my existing car.

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