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Putin starts “military operation” on Ukraine


happy_man
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10 hours ago, Didu said:

I think China is watching how US is handling the Ukraine situation closely. It's like a mirror for Taiwan.

No need see ukraine

 

see afghan is enough, doesnt last 2 decades

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9 hours ago, happy_man said:

Ukraine has lots of beautiful place and beautiful women too...But also corrupted. It is so corrupted that it is ranked 117th out of 180 on transparency index. But that didn't stop single man settling down down with a Ukrainian wife... Just ask this guy from 山东 who was just as clueless about Ukraine as some MCFers...😝

_105021079_img_8450.jpg.webp

 

Wah!!! Amdl 😍

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1 hour ago, D3badge said:

That was to answer his question whether can US will be able to "defend" taiwan if Russia and China attack on both end. thus my reply is very possible because US isn't fighting alone and many others nations navies are in the regions too.

 

yes let me then list the possibility for you.

us - bases in japan, guam, okinawa, sk, and carriers

japan - put missiles just north east of taiwan. not likely to commit ground forces. navy may be possible, air force may not be possible so that they avoid getting their bases hit and escalate the war.

uk - takes a month to get a carrier to sail over. the 2 ships they left in the region are just nominal.

aus - barely register a bite

canada - barely register a bite

germany - they got a 1 ship and now its gone home

india - 0 ships in pacific

dont count on any of the asian nations other than japan to sail 1 ship to take part in the war, not even vietnam.

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2 hours ago, Scion said:

even the mighty Soviet Union during WW2 couldn't have survive a 2 front wars

against Germany (west) and Japan (east)

but as we know, Japan chose to invade Southwards (into Southeast Asia) instead and the rest is history

Soviet Union able to fend off Germany (with help of harsh winter), and later turned back to whack Japan

what i'm saying is that in history, it's extremely difficult for a mighty country, even a superpower, to be dragged into a war on 2 or more fronts... unless you are the Mongols! 😁

go read up the kwantung army and their war with soviets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Japanese_border_conflicts

Quote

Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact[edit]

Main article: Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact

As a result of the Japanese defeat at Khalkhin Gol, Japan and the Soviet Union signed the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact on 13 April 1941, which was similar to the German–Soviet non-aggression pact of August 1939.[15] [16] [17]

Later in 1941, Japan would consider breaking the pact when Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa, but they made the crucial decision to keep it and to continue to press into Southeast Asia instead. This was said to be largely due to the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. The defeat there caused Japan not to join forces with Germany against the Soviet Union, even though Japan and Germany were part of the Tripartite Pact. On April 5, 1945, the Soviet Union unilaterally denounced the neutrality pact, noting that it would not renew the treaty when it expired on April 13, 1946. Four months later, prior to the expiration of the neutrality pact, and between the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan, completely surprising the Japanese. The Soviet invasion of Manchuria was launched one hour after the declaration of war.

the japs know they suffered major defeat under the soviets because they had lousy tanks. thats the major reason japan sucks in the war with the soviets. better to fight the chinese since they were deemed a push over at that time.

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24 minutes ago, Nolicense said:

yes let me then list the possibility for you.

us - bases in japan, guam, okinawa, sk, and carriers

japan - put missiles just north east of taiwan. not likely to commit ground forces. navy may be possible, air force may not be possible so that they avoid getting their bases hit and escalate the war.

uk - takes a month to get a carrier to sail over. the 2 ships they left in the region are just nominal.

aus - barely register a bite

canada - barely register a bite

germany - they got a 1 ship and now its gone home

india - 0 ships in pacific

dont count on any of the asian nations other than japan to sail 1 ship to take part in the war, not even vietnam.

The fact is the whole of EU combine together dun have the force to fight a single war. ( which is why trump is so fed up and keep asking nato member to have higher military budget )

EU member dun even want to fight russia at their door step, they willing to sail all the way to scs to fight china?? 

UK cannot even keep HK 30 Year ago. 

There is no need to wait for Russia to create another front for china to reclaim tw by force. The key is china themself dun want to go down that route also.

I saw an analysis on russia ukraine conflict. Why is USA blowing non stop russia is going to invade.? Or trying to force russia to make a move by making ukraine turn away from russia.

1 of the key reason is the natural gas sales. Usa is not happy their nato allies is buying and relying on russia gas, both strategic and money factor. 

The best outcome for usa would be russia move into ukraine, eu cut off gas deal with russia and buy usa gas by ship instead. 

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1 minute ago, Beregond said:

The fact is the whole of EU combine together dun have the force to fight a single war. ( which is why trump is so fed up and keep asking nato member to have higher military budget )

EU member dun even want to fight russia at their door step, they willing to sail all the way to scs to fight china?? 

UK cannot even keep HK 30 Year ago. 

There is no need to wait for Russia to create another front for china to reclaim tw by force. The key is china themself dun want to go down that route also.

I saw an analysis on russia ukraine conflict. Why is USA blowing non stop russia is going to invade.? Or trying to force russia to make a move by making ukraine turn away from russia.

1 of the key reason is the natural gas sales. Usa is not happy their nato allies is buying and relying on russia gas, both strategic and money factor. 

The best outcome for usa would be russia move into ukraine, eu cut off gas deal with russia and buy usa gas by ship instead. 

exactly. except there is not enough gas from the us that can supply all of eu.

if i am eu, why am i going to be so stupid?? my "ally" is going to extort money from me and making me help him do it by cutting off my nose to spite the russians

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1 hour ago, D3badge said:

That was to answer his question whether can US will be able to "defend" taiwan if Russia and China attack on both end. thus my reply is very possible because US isn't fighting alone and many others nations navies are in the regions too.

 

Ukraine is a European problem.... Poland, Germany, France etc can go form a force to deal with it. If they have the will. Probably not and so they will ask US to come settle. But POTUS is already so unpopular now (second worst at 1 year mark) doubt he will start another war. 

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4 hours ago, Nolicense said:

yes let me then list the possibility for you.

us - bases in japan, guam, okinawa, sk, and carriers

japan - put missiles just north east of taiwan. not likely to commit ground forces. navy may be possible, air force may not be possible so that they avoid getting their bases hit and escalate the war.

uk - takes a month to get a carrier to sail over. the 2 ships they left in the region are just nominal.

aus - barely register a bite

canada - barely register a bite

germany - they got a 1 ship and now its gone home

india - 0 ships in pacific

dont count on any of the asian nations other than japan to sail 1 ship to take part in the war, not even vietnam.

There are always US strike group in the region regardless of Ukraine situation, Taiwan have their own military, and why would you assume Taiwan will fall within one month? because if no then UK and others navy re-enforcement is something need to be account for after 1 month into the war. If Taiwan can fall so easily, CCP would already invade Taiwan, win a war in 2 days to drum their success for even better nationalist sentiment, rather seeing the popular female President saying No to them. like how Hong Kongers piss CCP off, CCP act on them

Since on the topic Ukraine and Taiwan, why is it "US responsibilities to defend them"? in reality it is not their responsibility, every nation security is their own responsibility! but US will  aid Taiwan for their own national strategic interests, from economy , technology , geography and national security, plus US also know if they dun aid Taiwan they will lose leadership and Credit in Asia , as the fall of Taiwan without US aid will drive many Asia nation to CCP arms.

so yes to me the region and US are already preparing for a pacific war theatre if it ever happen

Edited by D3badge
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22 minutes ago, D3badge said:

There are always US strike group in the region regardless of Ukraine situation, Taiwan have their own military, and why would you assume Taiwan will fall within one month? because if no then UK and others navy re-enforcement is something need to be account for after 1 month into the war. If Taiwan can fall so easily, CCP would already invade Taiwan, win a war in 2 days to drum their success for even better nationalist sentiment, rather seeing the popular female President saying No to them. like how Hong Kongers piss CCP off, CCP act on them

Since on the topic Ukraine and Taiwan, why is it "US responsibilities to defend them"? in reality it is not their responsibility, every nation security is their own responsibility! but US will  aid Taiwan for their own national strategic interests, from economy , technology , geography and national security, plus US also know if they dun aid Taiwan they will lose leadership and Credit in Asia , as the fall of Taiwan without US aid will drive many Asia nation to CCP arms.

so yes to me the region and US are already preparing for a pacific war theatre if it ever happen

please think carefully how an invasion needs to be planned.

one month for uk carrier to arrive is too late. us 2 carrier battle group in pacific. you think they have more to spare? no need docking and station in indian ocean and atlantic?

taiwan must fall in D+2 weeks according to expert's opinions on ccp invasion plan if they wanna invade. otherwise they will deem it too risky. the 2 weeks is estimate for strategic forces from us to get to taiwan.

in addition, invasion preparation on mainland can be seen by satellite, and it will take months to muster the invasion force. this is enough warning time for uk to send the carrier over if they mobilize immediately on intel confirmation of the preparation. people will know when large forces and supplies are assembled. you cannot hide this from satellites.

the us is the cause of many wars in asia after ww2. you think they care about taiwan? they only want to keep asia divided just like eu.  they lost the korea and vietnam war, what leadership do they have? none. they are only interested in supporting separatism to dismantle countries like soviet union, iraq, afghan, libya, south american countries, thailand, burma, and many more.

many countries dont get driven to ccp arms just because us fails, rather they chose to work with whom will give them a good deal. and for the last 70 odd years after ww2, how many us and eu countries offered to build infrastructure for the third world countries at low cost? 0

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1 hour ago, Nolicense said:

please think carefully how an invasion needs to be planned.

one month for uk carrier to arrive is too late. us 2 carrier battle group in pacific. you think they have more to spare? no need docking and station in indian ocean and atlantic?

taiwan must fall in D+2 weeks according to expert's opinions on ccp invasion plan if they wanna invade. otherwise they will deem it too risky. the 2 weeks is estimate for strategic forces from us to get to taiwan.

in addition, invasion preparation on mainland can be seen by satellite, and it will take months to muster the invasion force. this is enough warning time for uk to send the carrier over if they mobilize immediately on intel confirmation of the preparation. people will know when large forces and supplies are assembled. you cannot hide this from satellites.

the us is the cause of many wars in asia after ww2. you think they care about taiwan? they only want to keep asia divided just like eu.  they lost the korea and vietnam war, what leadership do they have? none. they are only interested in supporting separatism to dismantle countries like soviet union, iraq, afghan, libya, south american countries, thailand, burma, and many more.

many countries dont get driven to ccp arms just because us fails, rather they chose to work with whom will give them a good deal. and for the last 70 odd years after ww2, how many us and eu countries offered to build infrastructure for the third world countries at low cost? 0

I think you lost the main point along the way..... and start to think of too many scenarios 

my answer was to SCION question

if Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan at the same time, can US able to cope fighting on both East and West fronts?

I think yes as of now.

So if China want a guarantee D + 2 weeks invasion , definitely Russia invade Ukraine now they wont be ready for Taiwan

I  highlighted, US will aid in my opinion because of US national self-interested, various reason mention, nothing on higher moral of US

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1 hour ago, Nolicense said:

please think carefully how an invasion needs to be planned.

one month for uk carrier to arrive is too late. us 2 carrier battle group in pacific. you think they have more to spare? no need docking and station in indian ocean and atlantic?

taiwan must fall in D+2 weeks according to expert's opinions on ccp invasion plan if they wanna invade. otherwise they will deem it too risky. the 2 weeks is estimate for strategic forces from us to get to taiwan.

in addition, invasion preparation on mainland can be seen by satellite, and it will take months to muster the invasion force. this is enough warning time for uk to send the carrier over if they mobilize immediately on intel confirmation of the preparation. people will know when large forces and supplies are assembled. you cannot hide this from satellites.

the us is the cause of many wars in asia after ww2. you think they care about taiwan? they only want to keep asia divided just like eu.  they lost the korea and vietnam war, what leadership do they have? none. they are only interested in supporting separatism to dismantle countries like soviet union, iraq, afghan, libya, south american countries, thailand, burma, and many more.

many countries dont get driven to ccp arms just because us fails, rather they chose to work with whom will give them a good deal. and for the last 70 odd years after ww2, how many us and eu countries offered to build infrastructure for the third world countries at low cost? 0

Yup, 1st China must have air supremacy over Taiwan airspace,  

2nd must be able to Chinese Navy must be able to blockade Taiwanese Navy, then defeat their marine corp.

3rd China must have enough marine to land in Taiwan and enough army forces to control secure all strategic assets.

Need a lot a lot of deployment.

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52 minutes ago, D3badge said:

I think you lost the main point along the way..... and start to think of too many scenarios 

my answer was to SCION question

if Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan at the same time, can US able to cope fighting on both East and West fronts?

I think yes as of now.

So if China want a guarantee D + 2 weeks invasion , definitely Russia invade Ukraine now they wont be ready for Taiwan

I  highlighted, US will aid in my opinion because of US national self-interested, various reason mention, nothing on higher moral of US

not to bring in moral question. but it is in the interest of the us to keep the world in conflict.

i am trying to answer the same question if Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan at the same time, can US able to cope fighting on both East and West fronts?

i think the answer is no right now and even lesser from here on. simply because it is incapable of 2 front war let alone win 1 alone. dont you see the us going all over to coerce support from all over asia and eu?

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36 minutes ago, Atonchia said:

Yup, 1st China must have air supremacy over Taiwan airspace,  

2nd must be able to Chinese Navy must be able to blockade Taiwanese Navy, then defeat their marine corp.

3rd China must have enough marine to land in Taiwan and enough army forces to control secure all strategic assets.

Need a lot a lot of deployment.

exactly. it is very difficult to do that with just taiwan in under 2 weeks. time constraint is the only factor they have to beat.

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20 minutes ago, Nolicense said:

not to bring in moral question. but it is in the interest of the us to keep the world in conflict.

i am trying to answer the same question if Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan at the same time, can US able to cope fighting on both East and West fronts?

i think the answer is no right now and even lesser from here on. simply because it is incapable of 2 front war let alone win 1 alone. dont you see the us going all over to coerce support from all over asia and eu?

There is no need to wait for 2 front to know the answer.

Those who ask if USA can cope? Ask yourself this, Do u see crimea as part of ukraine? If yes, then it mean russia invasion of ukraine start long ago.

Can USA cope? Then have to ask what is your expectation of 'can cope' mean. Does USA current action on russia for the invasion of  crimea equal to they can cope? Its really very open end, see how indv see things .

But of course, if any indv see crimea as part of russia not ukraine, then forgot i even type these😆

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2 hours ago, Nolicense said:

not to bring in moral question. but it is in the interest of the us to keep the world in conflict.

i am trying to answer the same question if Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan at the same time, can US able to cope fighting on both East and West fronts?

i think the answer is no right now and even lesser from here on. simply because it is incapable of 2 front war let alone win 1 alone. dont you see the us going all over to coerce support from all over asia and eu?

tolong tolong please dun fight now!!! I am not ready!! I want to hold my party 😭😂

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/putin-would-burst-xis-olympic-dream-with-a-war-in-ukraine

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I think war is likely, actually it has already started. The conflict has been on going. Question is what kinda scale the war will escalate into.

It could be the worst case scenario. Let's hope it doesnt happen.

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Have to address russian insecurity over NATO facilities coming right up to their doorstep. If Ukraine can commit to neutrality, it would greatly defuse the situation.

This is similar to how Finland and Sweden maintain their freedom and coexist peacefully with Russia.

Really?

:D 

 

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