Xi risks stumbling with Putin if he plays his cards wrong

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Xi risks stumbling with Putin if he plays his cards wrong
If Russia fails in Ukraine, questions would arise over long-term authoritarian leadership

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writerApril 7, 2022 04:00 JST

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff writer and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's personal alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin is hampering China's diplomacy. That is becoming clearer as the war in Ukraine rages on.

Both men have laid the groundwork to stay in power until the middle of the 2030s. Both have territorial ambitions: reestablishing the former Soviet Union's sphere of influence for Putin, Taiwan for Xi.

But the association comes with significant risk.

Mere weeks ago, Chinese foreign and security officials were beaming with confidence. After Xi and Putin met in the Chinese capital on Feb. 4 and promised friendship with no limits, China was aware that the clock was ticking on a Ukraine operation. It had gathered intelligence through its official and behind-the-scenes connections in Russia, established over many years.

But China had expected Russia to refrain from any such military action until the Beijing Winter Paralympics had closed on March 13. This judgment was based on Putin's remarks to Xi in a private conversation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Feb. 4.   © Kremlin/Reuters

China's expectations proved to be wishful thinking. Putin only went halfway toward being considerate to Olympic host Xi. The Ukraine invasion began after the Winter Olympics closed on Feb. 20 but before the Paralympics began on March 4.

Still, Beijing had hoped the attack would be swift and that by the opening of the Paralympics, Russian forces would have established control in Ukraine.

Instead, more of the unexpected came, and rather than driving a wedge between the U.S. and Europe, the Russian invasion strengthened Western solidarity. Washington would not become bogged down in Eastern Europe, and there would be no geopolitical windfall for Beijing.

In fact, China now finds itself with the weaker hand.

When Xi held a virtual meeting with leaders of the European Union on April 1, he asked that they make their own diplomatic decisions on China "independent" of the U.S.

But the request fell on deaf ears. The EU, in turn, urged China not to provide military and economic support to Russia. The Europeans showed no sign of moving toward an investment pact with China, which is a pending issue.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speak with European Council President Charles Michel and European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell via video conference during an EU China summit at the European Council building in Brussels on April 1.   © Reuters

A month and a half into the Ukraine war, Xi is now concerned about "the subtle impact it may have on Chinese domestic politics," a Chinese political source said.

A nightmare scenario for Xi, who seeks to secure an uncustomary third term as China's top leader this fall, would be for Putin's operation to fail and spread the impression that an authoritarian leader in office for too long tends to make the wrong calls at crucial moments.

This would cause immeasurable damage to Xi ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's national congress.

Even if Xi wins reelection this time, a Russian failure in Ukraine could all but ensure that he won't stay beyond the next national congress in 2027. In this case, Xi would immediately become a lame duck, all but erasing his yearslong effort to cement his path into the next decade.

Xi and Putin are strange bedfellows. Both have no choice but to stay in power after making so many enemies. They need to prevent their respective boats from capsizing until they reach their destinations in the 2030s.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump had good intuition about Xi's position when he visited Beijing in November 2017.

"You're president for life, and therefore you're king," he told Xi at the Forbidden City, where Chinese emperors once lived.

The Forbidden City is one of Beijing's most popular tourist destinations and a UNESCO World Heritage site, but it was closed off for the day as Xi entertained the American president and first lady.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump had good intuition about Xi's position when he visited Beijing in November 2017.   © Reuters

This exchange happened four months before Xi pushed through a surprise revision of the national constitution the following March, scrapping the limit of two five-year terms for a Chinese president.

For Xi to stay head of state for life, he needs to be reelected as the party's general secretary every five years. Aiming for a third term this year is the first step toward an ultralong-term reign.

The year 2035 has been set as the target for catching up with the U.S. Most of China's current long-term plans and visions of nation-building have 2035 in mind. And indications are that Xi intends to run the government until 2035.

A shortcut to Xi's goal is to create a new top post for life. It would be similar to the post of party chairman, which Mao Zedong held until his death. But that may be difficult under the current party ban on stoking personality cults. Further, it would be impossible if Putin fails in Ukraine and the masses begin to question the ultralong rule of any one leader.

Soldiers walk amid destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine on April 3.   © AP

Meanwhile, in Russia, Putin also pushed through a constitutional revision in 2020, following in Xi's footsteps and paving the way for the Russian president to stay in office until 2036.

If Putin lasts that long, he would be 83. If Xi reigns until 2035, he too would be 83, at least in traditional Chinese age. It is also the age when Mao Zedong died, as the incumbent leader of China.

Are there any measures Xi can take?

When the time is ripe for a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire, China has the option of participating in a security framework to ensure peace. Xi could hold a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to facilitate such a scenario.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's phone call earlier this week with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, the second since Russia's invasion, was likely a step in that direction. "It is China's historical and cultural tradition as well as our consistent foreign policy to safeguard peace and oppose war," Wang said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks during a remote video press conference held on the sidelines of the annual meeting of China's National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 7.    © AP

But Wang carefully avoided any remarks that could be taken by Russia as unreasonable pressure from China.

Not knowing Putin's entire game plan, it is too dangerous for China to take a clear stance. And bound by the Xi-Putin joint statement of Feb. 4, in which both specified opposition to further NATO expansion, China cannot fully side with Ukraine.

Xi needs Putin to survive. There is a risk that if his Russian comrade falls, Xi could fall with him. Putin's survival is crucial for Xi, but not necessarily for China.