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Outlook for post-Covid recovery clouded, recession could hit 'within next 2 years': PM Lee


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Twincharged

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Singapore must transform for 'troubled environment', with risk of global recession in next two years: PM Lee

JANICE HENG

MAY 1, 2022 10:15 AM

SINGAPORE cannot escape global headwinds from developments such as the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and must instead transform itself to make a living even in such circumstances, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, warning that soaring global oil prices may cost Singapore an additional S$8 billion a year, or 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

In the year ahead, Singapore must brace itself for persistently high inflation, the tightening of monetary policy by global central banks, and weaker global growth – with the possibility of a recession in the next two years, he said on Sunday morning.

At the National Trades Union Congress May Day Rally, held as a hybrid physical and virtual event, Lee noted that Singapore is emerging from the Covid-19 crisis after having averted the worst of its impact: "At the start of this year, we were cautiously optimistic about our post-Covid-19 recovery."

"But since the beginning of the year, the outlook has clouded, and the risks have grown considerably," he said. The Russia-Ukraine war continues with "no good outcome in sight", and the stakes are rising: the United States and NATO have stepped up military aid to Ukraine while Russia has made ominous pronouncements about the possibility of World War III.

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so for those that in the 50s to 60s, it’s time to consider retirement when retrenchment hits u Liao 

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With such inflation rates and up-coming GST hikes, it is a bit risky to retire early.

Singapore's energy cost will remain elevated, which in turn will make food and water more costly to process.

Hence, food and utility prices will continue to escalate.

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Turbocharged
10 minutes ago, Sdf4786k said:


so for those that in the 50s to 60s, it’s time to consider retirement when retrenchment hits u Liao 

Then go into gig economy lor. That’s the grand plan isn’t it

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Twincharged
2 hours ago, Etnt said:

Then go into gig economy lor. That’s the grand plan isn’t it

Retirement means no more in the job market..

just like how stats are calculated. Once u cannot find a job after 6 months u are deem no longer looking for a job. Those that in the gig economy means having a job. And hence what the validity of real unemployment vs what the population is saying. Been displaced due to circumstances.

U-3 vs. U-6 

The U-3 is not the only metric available, and it measures unemployment fairly narrowly. The more comprehensive U-6 rate, often called the "real" unemployment rate, is an alternative measure of unemployment that includes groups such as discouraged workers who have stopped looking for a new job and the underemployed who are working part-time because they can't find full-time employment.1 The U-6 "real unemployment" rate for January 2022 was 7.1%, down from 7.3% in December 2021

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14 hours ago, Volvobrick said:

Most important question is, will COE premium drop? 😄

About a week ago, i already posted that COE premiums will drop henceforth.   
so the answer is a resounding yes.   Muayhahahahah

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5 hours ago, awhtc said:

With such inflation rates and up-coming GST hikes, it is a bit risky to retire early.

Singapore's energy cost will remain elevated, which in turn will make food and water more costly to process.

Hence, food and utility prices will continue to escalate.

Thats why i come out to work again lor.  
Tough life

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Hypersonic

My MIL's family restaurant in Japan has no problem getting cheap labour.

And they pay their staff peanuts every day.

:D 

 

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My take is we might be entering a small stagflation by the end of next year.  The high interest rates could only partially solve the supply chain issues.

 

Fed to tackle US inflation with fastest rate hikes in decades

It will get costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal or a credit card purchase.

The Federal Reserve is poised this week to accelerate its most drastic steps in three decades to attack inflation by making it costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal, a credit card purchase – all of which will compound Americans’ financial strains and likely weaken the economy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/2/fed-to-fight-inflation-with-fastest-rate-hikes-in-decades

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8 minutes ago, awhtc said:

My take is we might be entering a small stagflation by the end of next year.  The high interest rates could only partially solve the supply chain issues.

 

Fed to tackle US inflation with fastest rate hikes in decades

It will get costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal or a credit card purchase.

The Federal Reserve is poised this week to accelerate its most drastic steps in three decades to attack inflation by making it costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal, a credit card purchase – all of which will compound Americans’ financial strains and likely weaken the economy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/2/fed-to-fight-inflation-with-fastest-rate-hikes-in-decades

Despite record inflation rate in US, unemployment rate is at record Low.

Maybe Fed don’t really intend to reduce inflation rate.

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26 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

Despite record inflation rate in US, unemployment rate is at record Low.

Maybe Fed don’t really intend to reduce inflation rate.

Most economists said Fed is well behind the curve.  Demand is now too high (relative to supply crunch) and the labour market becomes very tight.

Many central banks are also hiking rates, including Australia today for the first time since 2010.  The Euro zone will also increase their rates in the 3rd quarter of this year.  I think money will flow to these countries with higher interest rates, thereby forcing our local banks to raise their interest rates sharply as well in the 3rd quarter.

Australia hikes interest rates for first time since 2010

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/australia-hikes-interest-rates-first-time-2010-2661596

ECB member says rate hike may come during third quarter as euro hits five-year low

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/ecb-dove-says-rate-hike-may-come-during-the-third-quarter.html

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8 hours ago, Jamesc said:

My MIL's family restaurant in Japan has no problem getting cheap labour.

And they pay their staff peanuts every day.

:D 

 

 

Wah very good leh!

Pay is peanut and patrons go bananas about it.

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(edited)
2 hours ago, awhtc said:

My take is we might be entering a small stagflation by the end of next year.  The high interest rates could only partially solve the supply chain issues.

 

Fed to tackle US inflation with fastest rate hikes in decades

It will get costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal or a credit card purchase.

The Federal Reserve is poised this week to accelerate its most drastic steps in three decades to attack inflation by making it costlier to borrow – for a car, a home, a business deal, a credit card purchase – all of which will compound Americans’ financial strains and likely weaken the economy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/2/fed-to-fight-inflation-with-fastest-rate-hikes-in-decades

I hearsay hoh when USA print more notes it devalues the dollar so it's makes buying imported stuff more expensive. That's inflation.

Then they increase the interest rates to generate more value. 

So inflation likely move in tandem with interest rate increase.

Then I also hearsay. Usually stocks/share prices and bank savings tend to increase in tandem because people will save more to gain the better bank interest. Then excess cash will flow into higher yield/returns stock market.

Edited by Atonchia
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