COE Bidding – July 2022

[Mustank]

10 hours ago, 13177 said:

Maybe doesn’t matter to them if you want to stay here or not. They can make up the numbers by importing FTs, new citizens etc. 😅

Sad but true 

[Mustank]

14 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

wont burst one lah. More and more super rich coming to Singapore. They are the type that uses $20m cash to buy 10 condos one time. Do you think they are brothered by the the 100k or 200k COE? To be sure, the average Singaporean can say bye bye to driving.  

unless, the COE system is changed, but considered the current government, they won't do it. You want a change, vote wisely in the next election. 

I also think so

seems like this time they are coming here to stay So buy cars

my coe finish I also take bus liao

I cannot afford so I will be swept aside 

such is the hard truth of life

[Mustank]

10 hours ago, inlinesix said:

They are not afraid of middle class not happy.

 

Middle class has a lot to lose 

they won’t rebel

Relax 

[Kar_lover]

9 hours ago, SLing said:

Referring the this ST article:  https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/speculative-bidding-fuels-coe-price-spiral

The writer said that when their introduced the 2nd tier of ARF, it

1) triggered and increased demand for Cat E COE's 

2) AD's bidding high for Cat E helped to preserve the value of their Cat B COE's.  

Can someone explain how this works?

The writer also said that AD's of premium brands sell cars to their employees to meet sales targets & these people then re-sold the cars to customers.  Does having a previous owner (i.e. used car) devalue the car regardless of how long the previous owner had it or the mileage?

 

Not a subscriber so can't read the whole article but it doesn't sound logical. ARF is linked to OMV, COE is not. Can't see any correlation.

As for new-preowned cars, well in the past it used to matter but i think nowadays, probably less so? I think now it matters more if the care was an ex-PHV since it would generally have higher mileage and maybe the owner don't take care as much since it is for income purpose and also don't know what kind of passengers it may have picked up before.

Just like when i was selling my last car, some dealers told me buyers prefer as stock as possible (my car had some cosmetic mods) as they felt a stock car is "safer" as compared to cars that are done up. Not sure how true also. I mean, everything else being equal, if i can get the car with OZ Rims, BBK and good sound system, why not??

 

 

[Etnt]

9 minutes ago, Kar_lover said:

Not a subscriber so can't read the whole article but it doesn't sound logical. ARF is linked to OMV, COE is not. Can't see any correlation.

As for new-preowned cars, well in the past it used to matter but i think nowadays, probably less so? I think now it matters more if the care was an ex-PHV since it would generally have higher mileage and maybe the owner don't take care as much since it is for income purpose and also don't know what kind of passengers it may have picked up before.

Just like when i was selling my last car, some dealers told me buyers prefer as stock as possible (my car had some cosmetic mods) as they felt a stock car is "safer" as compared to cars that are done up. Not sure how true also. I mean, everything else being equal, if i can get the car with OZ Rims, BBK and good sound system, why not??

i would think a car with oz, bbk and good sound system is less likely to be ex-phv.

[Kar_lover]

1 hour ago, Philipkee said:

I think it's unsustainable.  Sooner or later, the bubble will pop.  Cos I believe many people are buying cars as investment - aka for PHV.  So if the COE goes up, PHV rates will go up, ridership will go down and then there will be a flood of cars awaiting scrap.

It's like people who buy condos as investment.  They believe the price will keep going up.  Fine.  That may be true. But they plan on sustaining the monthly payments from the rent.  Which makes sense, until the tenants stop coming.  Then they cannot make payments.  And they have to sell off the condo. If it happens to many people, the bubble will burst.

I think can't really compare cars to property. People can/will keep buying property for investment which could lead to a bubble bursting as what you mentioned if the well of tenants suddenly dries up. But for cars, people don't buy for investment thinking that price will go up, they buy for their own use (if anything, they are buying now to hedge themselves against future even higher COEs). I don't think car owners depend on getting income from their cars to sustain them (other than PHV drivers which is a different story). So even if COE suddenly dives, those who bought the high COE cars should generally be alright cos they did not depend on "tenants" to sustain the monthly payments. They just continue to use them and at most they wait for the next high tide or at worst scrap at high paper value. Lets face it, even if there is a correction in COE, it won't last long - negative growth is just waiting to kick in. 

 

[Philipkee]

43 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

wont burst one lah. More and more super rich coming to Singapore. They are the type that uses $20m cash to buy 10 condos one time. Do you think they are brothered by the the 100k or 200k COE? To be sure, the average Singaporean can say bye bye to driving.  

unless, the COE system is changed, but considered the current government, they won't do it. You want a change, vote wisely in the next election. 

 

26 minutes ago, Mustank said:

I also think so

seems like this time they are coming here to stay So buy cars

my coe finish I also take bus liao

I cannot afford so I will be swept aside 

such is the hard truth of life

I actually have a different thought.  Unless the super rich coming to Singapore are few, eventually they will face problems because of the quota.  Plus the rich in Singapore.  It really depends on how many super rich do we attract here.

And if these super rich drive up prices, what happens when the economy is geared towards them, and they leave?  Especially if the car loan is not paid up in full?  Iirc it happens in Malaysia where the China buyers come and snap up the properties but halfway through they left and end up properties half built.  It also happened in Dubai. 

The same thing can happen here eventually if not managed properly.  

[Kar_lover]

20 minutes ago, Etnt said:

i would think a car with oz, bbk and good sound system is less likely to be ex-phv.

Errr - not related leh lol.... he was asking if pre-owned cars would have lesser value and i was saying nowadays probably not so much anymore and a greater concern now is whether it is ex-PHV.

 

The "zhng" car anecdote is just my own personal experience where a dealer told me that buyers prefer stock car to done up car as another "factor" in the value of pre-own cars. But for me, if i can get a pre-owned cars that had lots of goodies then why not? Of course *if* it was a PHV then no la. But yes, i reckon u are right - a nicely done up car unlikely to be a PHV. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Kar_lover

[Philipkee]

3 minutes ago, Kar_lover said:

I think can't really compare cars to property. People can/will keep buying property for investment which could lead to a bubble bursting as what you mentioned if the well of tenants suddenly dries up. But for cars, people don't buy for investment thinking that price will go up, they buy for their own use (if anything, they are buying now to hedge themselves against future even higher COEs). I don't think car owners depend on getting income from their cars to sustain them (other than PHV drivers which is a different story). So even if COE suddenly dives, those who bought the high COE cars should generally be alright cos they did not depend on "tenants" to sustain the monthly payments. They just continue to use them and at most they wait for the next high tide or at worst scrap at high paper value. Lets face it, even if there is a correction in COE, it won't last long - negative growth is just waiting to kick in. 

 

This assumes they have either paid up in full or can pay up in full.  If this happens, the banks who loan the money would be in trouble if most of the COEs are snapped up by foreign super rich and PHV.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.carkeys.co.uk/amp/news/the-story-behind-dubais-abandoned-supercars

[Mustank]

2 minutes ago, Philipkee said:

 

I actually have a different thought.  Unless the super rich coming to Singapore are few, eventually they will face problems because of the quota.  Plus the rich in Singapore.  It really depends on how many super rich do we attract here.

And if these super rich drive up prices, what happens when the economy is geared towards them, and they leave?  Especially if the car loan is not paid up in full?  Iirc it happens in Malaysia where the China buyers come and snap up the properties but halfway through they left and end up properties half built.  It also happened in Dubai. 

The same thing can happen here eventually if not managed properly.  

I don’t have stats 

I only anyhow think these people don’t need loan one 

the recent China policy forced people to rethink where to house their family 

productive assets like factory will still be in China but family put in sg 

[Volvobrick]

10 hours ago, 13177 said:

Change or no change, happy or not happy, overall they are still the main gahment lo. Dont think they will care much. 🙄

They only need 50.000001% not unhappy can liao. The rest of the 49.999999% can kpkb for all they want. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Volvobrick

[Civic101]

Huat ah - COE higher than the total car price I paid 3 years ago!!!🥳🥳🥳

[Philipkee]

5 minutes ago, Mustank said:

I don’t have stats 

I only anyhow think these people don’t need loan one 

the recent China policy forced people to rethink where to house their family 

productive assets like factory will still be in China but family put in sg 

I also anyhow.

I look at what happened before elsewhere or here and wonder if it can happen again.

[13177]

7 hours ago, Starry said:

Maybe they have data to show that all these increase in prices are sustainable. The masses could be richer than what we thought.

The children will get decent  inheritance from their parents.  If not, at least some help from parents. Not surprising to hear that some kids, just after 21,  already owned homes.....the parents bought it under their name

Those kids who already owned houses that their parents bought for them is from rich family lo, cannot compared la. Majority of us dont have such inheritance from their parents.

[13177]

8 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

They only need 50.000001% not unhappy can liao. The rest of the 49.999999% can kpkb for all they want. 

I think this is the current situation that they have, got 50.000001% not unhappy. Thats why they are still very safe. Lol.

[Kar_lover]

12 minutes ago, Philipkee said:

This assumes they have either paid up in full or can pay up in full.  If this happens, the banks who loan the money would be in trouble if most of the COEs are snapped up by foreign super rich and PHV.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.carkeys.co.uk/amp/news/the-story-behind-dubais-abandoned-supercars

Why need to pay up in full? They can just keep paying their monthly installments and wait for their wealth to recover (hopefully). If they don't even have the cashflow for that then of course too bad. The banks need to do their DD/RA properly. Or MAS can come up with additional loan limits (regardless of OMV) for subsequent cars (like property), eg. 50% for 2nd car, 25% for 3rd then full cash for 4th. 

[Scion]

i fear Singapore will become another HK

where properties and cars become out of reach for the next generations

either that or they become life slaves to service the properties and cars' loans

[Ct3833]

12 hours ago, Benarsenal said:

I don't think it's sustainable. Sooner or later it is going to fester a lot of unhappiness, especially with everything else also going up.

As much as we want to force everybody onto public transport, I don't think it's feasible to completely do away with private transport altogether. There are some situations where having a car is absolutely useful and perhaps even necessary.

Surely there will be unhappiness but they know the government's job is not to make everybody happy, as long as there are about 60% support their votes, that is enough.

There seems to be an impression that the government is taking away private transport completely, no they are not. There are still 600,000 vehicles on the road, so there would still be car ownership in sgp. Moreover, private car related revenue is one of their key income, they will not kill the golden goose. COE opium has to be there for a long long time to come, and the by product of COE is car. So there will still be car.

Car may be needed in some situations but public transport such as taxi and grab are avaliable with some inconveniece, but it is not completely undoable.

The problem with the COE system is that they are allowing dealers to bid, end up dealers bid at aggreesive pricing to secure their orders.  Of course we can also blame the buyers who sign up at current price. 

Next is the quota distribution yesr over year is unbalanced. Some years there are high COE quota  while some have very low like now.  This is a problem created more than 20 years ago, hopefully with the 5 year recycle of renewed COEs, the fluctuations  can be flatterend slightly over years.

With limited space,  no way we will get more roads to accomodate more cars. Alternatively is to get more traffic jam like in jakarta or manila, but this will have other negative social and economy impact too.

I am not a strong PAP supporter but objectively looking at it, COE has to  be here to stay until we have a better way out. What to do for commoners like me? One word, suck it up. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Ct3833