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[BREAKING] Taiwan is Screwed! Liberation of Taiwan Set on August 4th to 7th


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Turbocharged
1 hour ago, Macrosszero said:

Its a high stakes game of chicken.

The US is clearly testing the response of China, and China cannot back down lest they are seen to be weak, worst of all by their own people. The Chinese are already stewing under the zero-COVID strategy, with property developers going bust, bank account balances disappearing and lack of overseas travel for the rich, you can bet there is more behind the Great Wall of Internet than what most of us can see.

However, China cannot afford to go to war over Taiwan, not now at least. Wars cost money - not just in soldiers' salaries, ammunition and weaponry but also impacts it will have on trade. China needs the very same Taiwan Strait to ship its goods to the rest of the world, the same one that they would try to launch an invasion fleet across. And that's on the assumption that they have sufficient amphibious and sealift capability. 

What could however happen is that they could attempt a Russian-style annexation of the Kinmen Islands which is just off the coast of Xiamen, Matsu Islands just off the coast of Fuzhou. Each would be a much easier task to throw a blanket over with land-based artillery, rockets, aircraft, anti-aircraft batteries as well as airborne forces. If they were feeling brave and wanted to dip their toes in further after they've done their Crimea, Penghu Island sits near the middle of the Taiwan Strait and is an important unsinkable aircraft carrier for Taiwan to interdict any invasion force from the Mainland. 

While I cast doubt on PLAN's amphibious capability, ROCN is many times smaller both in tonnage as well as numbers. This is significant in any attempt to reinforce and resupply the islands above. In wartime conditions, it is likely that they cannot, and will be left to the PRC. 

Should it proceed to a shooting war, it is likely that ROC will give up those two island groups right off the shores of China. They are many times closer to the Mainland than to Taiwan, and while they are strategically important from an intelligence-gathering perspective, would cost disproportionate amounts of resources to defend. 

But China would have to be mindful that even taking small territories of ROC could give the US the excuse that it needs to step up their support (including of materiel) for Taiwan and upset the balance thus far, which has been favourable to China. They have managed to effectively isolate Taiwan diplomatically and been mostly effective in hindering Taiwan from purchasing weapons on the world market.  To tip the balance and open the floodgates should be something they are very mindful of. 

In the end, each decision, action or inaction will come with something to gain, but also surely, a cost.

 

good analysis, even if i dun quite agree with some of the points

this is mature discussion and sharing of thoughts

better than some bitter buggers here who talk nonsense 😁

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Turbocharged
55 minutes ago, Picnic06-Biante15 said:

you very experience ... :wut:

 

Emoticon 29.jpg

Chew betel nut need experience??? Got mouth and teeth can already lah.. :D

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5th Gear

Hahaha stinky so easily excited. If you do business with Chinese you will know 吹牛是文化,要说的有龙有峰。

like many small companies always front their company much bigger than what they really are !

nothing dramatic will happen and we will still celebrate NDP , life will be normal. 

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Supersonic
3 hours ago, Daniu82 said:

They hoot TW and everybody else hoot them back. I think many countries buay song them very long liao. 

Look at Ukraine....anyone helped physically beyond the mouth and money?

China is the world's factory....can people live without their latest iphones?

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Turbocharged
17 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

alama...we have a political analyst here. Can you also do an analysis on COE ? 🤣

I did a post recently on why the COE system doesn't need fixing and briefly touched on the unpredictability of COE pricing.

COE is much tougher to predict than Cross-Strait relationships. 

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Supersonic

Does Xi really wants a war with US ?

He better think really hard. Once, he starts, it can't be stopped.

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Supersonic
Just now, Kb27 said:

Does Xi really wants a war with US ?

He better think really hard. Once, he starts, it can't be stopped.

Xi doesn't want a war, but he cannot do nothing. His political career is on the table.

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Supersonic
(edited)

AMDK USA has plenty of shits on their backyard ....

GDP negative growth, recession, high inflation, Biden low popularity and mid-term election, etc

instead of clearing shit ... best game plan is to go out "stir shit"  ...

let's everyone get shitted ...  :grin:

Edited by Wt_know
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Supersonic
9 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

AMDK USA has plenty of shits on their backyard ....

GDP negative growth, recession, high inflation, Biden low popularity and mid-term election, etc

instead of clearing shit ... best game plan is to go out "stir shit"  ...

let's everyone get shitted ...  :grin:

Both sides have a lot of shit in their respective backyard.

What's worse is that there could be infighting within CCP.

There might be a lot of ppl who don't want XJP to break term limit set by DXP.

On the other hand, XJP might have to do "something" to break term limit.

That "something" could be related to TW returning to motherland.

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6th Gear
20 minutes ago, Macrosszero said:

I did a post recently on why the COE system doesn't need fixing and briefly touched on the unpredictability of COE pricing.

COE is much tougher to predict than Cross-Strait relationships. 

wah....US and CHINA, two biggest country in the world can't solve taiwan problem. Our COE is even more complicated than taiwan, then how? We need alien to come to SG to solve our COE problem😁

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Hypersonic

Yah lah both sides all noise only

:D

dog-fight.gif.2b16ace634e2eacf3a26ad2e6c72d2da.gif

35 minutes ago, D3badge said:

Hahaha stinky so easily excited. If you do business with Chinese you will know 吹牛是文化,要说的有龙有峰。

like many small companies always front their company much bigger than what they really are !

nothing dramatic will happen and we will still celebrate NDP , life will be normal. 

 

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Turbocharged
17 minutes ago, DOBIEMKZ said:

Exercises are closer or more intrusive this time.

 

A golden opportunity for Western intelligence to gather electronic, acoustic, radar signatures of the latest Chinese equipment. The closer they get the more they can hear/see/detect. 

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Supersonic
23 minutes ago, mikk123 said:

wah....US and CHINA, two biggest country in the world can't solve taiwan problem. Our COE is even more complicated than taiwan, then how? We need alien to come to SG to solve our COE problem😁

Correction - US WON"T solve TW problem. Got problem means got leverage and can sell more weapons.

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Supersonic
Just now, Volvobrick said:

Correction - US WON"T solve TW problem. Got problem means got leverage and can sell more weapons.

A lot of TW weapon systems are old and outdated.

Most countries don't dare to offend PRC by selling weapons to Taiwan.

Taiwan F16 is either A or B variant.  Ppl already using C or D variant now.

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