Global Financial Crisis 2.0 - 2023 Edition

[Sdf4786k]

On 10/15/2022 at 1:40 PM, Starry said:

Frankly, if the amount of work that need to be done is about the same, then having 4-day work week would means cramping and more rush during that 4 days.  This to me, is even more stressful. In addition, for those with overseas team, may still have to reply their emails during their "off-day"

Then public sector may want the same .....and you have shorter number of days to get things transacted or done. This may also add stress. 

A better way is keep to the 5 days but one day work from home. Simple and don't make it complicated. 

How does that reduce cost? 4 day work week means pay cut as well not more free days 

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195859/china-real-estate-and-global-debt-woes-show-problems-led-2008

China real estate and global debt woes show problems that led to 2008 financial crisis remain

• History shows that easy money inflates asset values but everything eventually comes crashing down in a reversion to the mean
• The global financial crisis was a textbook example, and its trajectory suggests a replay is likely soon

Central banks are raising interest rates to quell inflation, China’s real estate market is imploding and public debt is at record levels worldwide. Could the maelstrom that is building turn into another global financial crisis to rival the one that started in 2007, which at the time was the worst since the Great Depression?

The bandwagon is filling fast, with many warning that the likelihood of disaster increases daily. The Asian Development Bank says “several downside risks loom large”, notably “a deeper-than-expected deceleration” in China.

Nouriel Roubini, who is credited with predicting the global financial crisis, has an even bleaker outlook. He sees a “hard landing”, beginning by the end of the year, with a “long and ugly” recession. Meanwhile, fund managers scurry to lower their forecasts for investment returns.

Equally sober were bankers attending the annual International Monetary Fund-World Bank meetings. The Federal Reserve’s tightening in response to strength in the US labour market is forcing them to counter depreciation in their currencies.

Will all these fears prove true? Some clues lie in parallels between now and the Great Recession.

Side by side, both periods are marked by a long stretch of prosperity with low inflation, home prices outpacing income growth and equity valuations exceeding historical averages – the still-puzzling distortions of Covid-19 notwithstanding.

Both reveal Asia’s vulnerability to headwinds from the West. Asia fell into a V-shaped business cycle late in 2008 after initial resilience.

Both times also show capitalism’s reliance on cheap energy, predictability, trust in counterparties and expanding global capital flows. When those conditions go awry, as the war in Ukraine shows, economies capitulate.

The Fed’s approach has been key during each period. These days, Fed chairman Jerome Powell insists he will fight inflation “until we are confident the job is done”. That mission drove the US central bank in March to start raising the federal funds rate from near-zero levels to a range of 3 to 3.25 per cent, the highest since early 2008. Eighteen years earlier, the federal funds rate rose from 1.25 per cent in mid-2004 to 5.25 per cent by mid-2006.

History shows that easy money inflates asset values. Everything eventually comes crashing down in a reversion to the mean. The global financial crisis was a textbook example, and its trajectory suggests a replay is likely soon.

Real estate troubles in China are one early flashpoint of the next crisis. Citigroup sees nearly a third of all property loans as bad debts. Seeing their property values plummet, homebuyers are boycotting mortgage payments. More Evergrande-like defaults seem inevitable.

Meanwhile, Moody’s estimates that local governments face large shortfalls in revenues this year. Tencent and Alibaba reported the first falls in revenue in their history during the most recent quarter. The outlook is further darkened by China’s “zero-Covid” policy.

We’ll know if China met its 5.5 per cent growth target when official numbers for July to September are released, but its woes are already having a global impact given that China accounts for a large percentage of global growth. Apple illustrates the country’s clout: iPhone 14 sales in the world’s largest smartphone market fell 11 per cent during the first three days after the product’s launch, according to the investment bank Jefferies.

Prior solutions to financial crises could be kindling for troubles ahead, too. Massive stimulus plans ushered in near-zero or even negative interest rates, fuelling a global borrowing frenzy. The era of free money banished prudence. Nowhere is that more clear than with China’s credit boom: years of steadily rising debt have reached nearly 150 per cent of GDP, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

As a buffer, Beijing announced a more than 1 trillion yuan (US$139.6 billion) stimulus package in August meant to improve infrastructure, ease power shortages and fight drought. More stimulus is expected soon, but fighting fire with fire could fail this time.

Low rates also allowed corporations to use leverage to earn record profits during the past year. That strategy is now a fool’s game. Profits are decelerating and equity values are falling, stoking a global downturn. Investment-grade corporate bonds are riskier: the share of bonds rated AA or higher has fallen to 10 per cent, down from more than 35 per cent 30 years ago. This trend recognises how leverage magnifies and accelerates the impact of economic shocks.

The global financial crisis revealed hidden risks, from weak market infrastructures to haphazard management of liabilities and feeble early warning systems. Financial institutions deemed “too big to fail” were restricted in size, their activities “ring-fenced” to contain fallout and their capital reserve requirements raised to prevent collapse.

These risks remain, as speculaton swirls about Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank’s future. Meanwhile, nonbank financial institutions, seen as triggering and amplifying market stress during the previous crisis, have bulked up and added more kindling.

Getting a better handle on hidden problems is difficult since accounting shenanigans continue to allow fudging in securities’ values and moving toxic liabilities off financial statements into unclear footnotes. Auditors’ conflicts of interest persist. The clean-up sought after the global financial crisis fizzled.

All told, signs point to a painful downturn as the problems that led to the 2008 crisis remain. These and China are likely triggers as the curtain opens on the next global crisis. Already, investor hesitancy is supplanting eagerness. Seats on the sideline, remaining in cash, are more comfortable. Fewer are counselling that “this time is different” and that we’ll muddle through.

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

• Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
• Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration. 

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.

The forecasts provide a sharp contrast to Biden’s upbeat tone. The president has focused on strong job growth as he campaigns to help Democrats retain their House and Senate majorities in elections three weeks from now. 

But inflation, which has hovered near a four-decade high, has been a drag on Democrats’ prospects in an election where polls indicate the economy is voters’ top issue.

The Bloomberg Economics model uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to predict the chance of a downturn at horizons of one month to two years. 

While the chance of a recession within 12 months has reached 100% under the model, the odds of a recession hitting sooner are also up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%.

The deterioration in the outlook was driven by a broad-based worsening in the economic and financial indicators used as inputs to the model, Bloomberg Economics found.

 

[Volvobrick]

50 minutes ago, noobcarbuyer said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

• Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
• Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration. 

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.

The forecasts provide a sharp contrast to Biden’s upbeat tone. The president has focused on strong job growth as he campaigns to help Democrats retain their House and Senate majorities in elections three weeks from now. 

But inflation, which has hovered near a four-decade high, has been a drag on Democrats’ prospects in an election where polls indicate the economy is voters’ top issue.

The Bloomberg Economics model uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to predict the chance of a downturn at horizons of one month to two years. 

While the chance of a recession within 12 months has reached 100% under the model, the odds of a recession hitting sooner are also up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%.

The deterioration in the outlook was driven by a broad-based worsening in the economic and financial indicators used as inputs to the model, Bloomberg Economics found.

 

Don't worry. Economists have proven to be wrong about the future most of the time.... 

If they are always right they would be making a killing trading stocks/bonds/currencies instead of writing reports. 

[Atonchia]

On 10/17/2022 at 7:54 AM, Sdf4786k said:

How does that reduce cost? 4 day work week means pay cut as well not more free days 

More free time =

More leisure activities =

More quality consumption =

More value accretion =

Maybe better for economy.

But as a few already point out.

5 days work week 

But with flexible work arrangement, 

Ie: 3 days in office 2 days work from anywhere 

Probably meets current needs.

[Atonchia]

27 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

Don't worry. Economists have proven to be wrong about the future most of the time.... 

If they are always right they would be making a killing trading stocks/bonds/currencies instead of writing reports. 

Correct on Economist.

Those who write about on stocks/bonds etc are analysts 😉

Probably most are still analysing & writing.

[Beregond]

9 hours ago, Volvobrick said:

Don't worry. Economists have proven to be wrong about the future most of the time.... 

If they are always right they would be making a killing trading stocks/bonds/currencies instead of writing reports. 

what crisis??
those doing carry trade laughing their way to the banks😂

Alot of talks about buying in pounds now also 😁

[Scion]

On 10/17/2022 at 9:23 AM, noobcarbuyer said:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195859/china-real-estate-and-global-debt-woes-show-problems-led-2008

China real estate and global debt woes show problems that led to 2008 financial crisis remain

• History shows that easy money inflates asset values but everything eventually comes crashing down in a reversion to the mean
• The global financial crisis was a textbook example, and its trajectory suggests a replay is likely soon

 

The Japan asset bubble burst in 1990 was also a good example of too much easy money causing overinflation of assets

Nikkei hit all time high then, crashed and never recovered for 30 years

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/singapores-gic-says-global-recession-scenario-possible-eyes-australia-2022-10-18/

Singapore's GIC says global recession scenario possible, eyes Australia opportunities

SYDNEY, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, one of the world's biggest investors, said it is factoring in the potential for a global recession and was prepared to stress-test its portfolio if need be.

GIC Chief Executive Lim Chow Kiat told Reuters in an interview that rising inflation poses a big risk and that central banks needed to get it under control to ensure global economic stability.

"Otherwise we could stare at a prolonged period of difficulties both for the economies and across the financial markets," said Lim, who was in Sydney to open the fund's Australia office.

Fears of a global recession continue to grow amid challenges posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis and a sharply slowing Chinese economy. The International Monetary Fund, while forecasting global growth of 2.7% in 2023, warned this month that countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy are poised to contract this year or next.

"We expect more slowdown ... we do not know the extent of that or how far it will go," Lim said.

"As an investor we would certainly stress test our portfolio. When we underwrite a deal we will have to consider the scenario of recession," he added.

Lim also said, however, that he was confident global central banks could contain inflation and eventually bring it down.

GIC is ranked as the world's fifth-biggest sovereign investor with $690 billion in assets, according to research firm Global SWF. The fund has said its assets are worth more than $100 billion.

Lim also said that GIC is looking at opportunities in Australia's renewable energy industry and related sectors, as the country's economy has been comparatively resilient.

"As every country deals with this inflation challenge, we think Australia can handle this relatively well," he said.

While Australia currently accounts for a very small share of GIC's portfolio and is largely limited to real estate assets, the country has the potential to play a big role in the global energy transition, Lim said.

"If there are suitable projects or assets in Australia, our infrastructure team will definitely want to look at it very closely," he added.

Lim also said China will continue to be a focus for GIC, which counts e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group Holding (9988.HK) and food delivery giant Meituan (3690.HK) among its investments.

"For many years, China has done a great job in their reform and opening-up policy. We expect China to continue to do so. The general direction of China emphasising growth and reforms – we don't see any change to that," he said.

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-may-be-facing-recession-rate-hikes-necessary-ecbs-makhlouf-says-2022-10-18/

Euro zone may be facing recession but rate hikes necessary, ECB's Makhlouf says

NICOSIA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy may be facing a recession but rate hikes remain absolutely necessary because persistently high inflation is damaging the economy and stability, European Central Bank policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf said on Tuesday.

"The euro area is facing a difficult combination of high inflation and low economic growth, including the possibility of a technical recession," Makhlouf, Ireland's central bank governor said in Cyprus.

"History teaches us that these issues will only be exacerbated if we delay action and raising interest rates is absolutely necessary as persistent inflation is damaging to macroeconomic stability."

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/business/china-gdp-delay.html

China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics

The unusual move comes as the country’s ruling elite have gathered in Beijing for the twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, announced without explanation on Monday that it was delaying indefinitely the release of economic data that had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, including closely watched numbers for economic growth from July through September, which had been expected to show continued lackluster performance.

The delay by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which analysts said was highly unusual, comes as the country’s ruling elite gather in Beijing for a weeklong, twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party. The authorities have taken elaborate measures to prevent any disruptions during the gathering, from halting almost all travel into Beijing to requiring frequent Covid-19 tests across practically the entire country.

The postponement of the report drew speculation that the data might have been worse than officials expected. Western economists had been predicting that China would announce that the economy grew a little more than 3 percent in the third quarter compared with last year. That would be better than the growth of just 0.4 percent in the second quarter, when a two-month pandemic lockdown in Shanghai severely depressed many industries’ output.

But it would still be far below the target that Beijing set in March, aiming for growth of “about 5.5 percent” this year.

Large countries seldom postpone the release of even a single economic statistic for fear of hurting financial confidence, much less the broad array of market-moving data that China’s National Bureau of Statistics has now delayed. In addition to deferring the release of gross domestic product data for the third quarter, the government agency postponed the release of September data for retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment and other categories.

“I’ve not come across before a situation where a whole raft of statistical reporting has just been postponed, in nearly half a century of monitoring data releases — not even in times of pestilence and conflict,” said George Magnus, a former chief economist of UBS who is now an associate at the China Center at Oxford University.

Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, had taken an upbeat tone about the Chinese economy during a news conference on Monday morning at the media center of the party congress.

“Judging from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter — from a global perspective, China’s economic performance is still outstanding,” he said.

After the close of trading on Chinese stock exchanges on Monday afternoon, the National Bureau of Statistics canceled its quarterly news conference, which had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, and updated its online calendar of data releases to show many categories as “delayed.”

Another agency, the General Administration of Customs, had separately failed on Friday to follow its own previously issued schedule for the release of export and import statistics for September. The release of those numbers has also been delayed indefinitely.

Chinese officials have been trying to rebut growing criticisms from foreign economists and multinational corporations that China now puts politics and ideology ahead of economic performance. Mr. Zhao said on Monday morning that because of the government’s pandemic policies and emphasis on economic development, “China’s economic stabilization and improvement will be further consolidated.”

As China has grown to become the world’s largest manufacturer and a major trading power, and home to some of the world’s biggest banks, it has repeatedly struggled with how its Communist Party-dominated political structure communicates with financial markets.

For example, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced with almost no explanation in August 2015 that it was devaluing the country’s currency, the renminbi, by nearly 2 percent. The move was intended as a technical measure connected to bringing the renminbi into the International Monetary Fund’s system of reserve currencies.

But the sudden move contributed considerably to a panic in financial markets in China and abroad that lasted into the next winter, driving down share prices in China and causing investors to move hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country.

In recent years, the National Bureau of Statistics has quietly discontinued hundreds of series of data on narrow subjects, like the output of specific types of coal or raw silk. Foreign economists used to rely on some of the reports to double-check the veracity and plausibility of broader government data, such as overall economic growth statistics.

“Analyzing China has always been a tough gig, but the way you can get things right is by looking at as much information and data as you can and try to fit as many pieces of the puzzle together into a coherent picture,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London consulting firm. “This has become progressively harder over the past few years as China has become a lot less open.”

[Arogab]

On 10/12/2022 at 1:13 PM, noobcarbuyer said:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-plans-cut-thousands-jobs-face-pc-slowdown-bloomberg-news-2022-10-11/

Intel plans to cut thousands of jobs hit by PC slowdown - Bloomberg News

Oct 11 (Reuters) - Chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC.O) is planning a major reduction in headcount, likely numbering in the thousands, in the face of a slowdown in the personal computer market, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the situation.

The layoffs will be announced as early as this month and some of Intel's divisions, including the sales and marketing group, could see cuts affecting about 20% of staff, according to the report.

 

I thot I just mentioned about Intel is one thread. Now come out news liao. 

[Stary]

On 10/19/2022 at 10:31 AM, noobcarbuyer said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/singapores-gic-says-global-recession-scenario-possible-eyes-australia-2022-10-18/

Singapore's GIC says global recession scenario possible, eyes Australia opportunities

SYDNEY, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, one of the world's biggest investors, said it is factoring in the potential for a global recession and was prepared to stress-test its portfolio if need be.

GIC Chief Executive Lim Chow Kiat told Reuters in an interview that rising inflation poses a big risk and that central banks needed to get it under control to ensure global economic stability.

"Otherwise we could stare at a prolonged period of difficulties both for the economies and across the financial markets," said Lim, who was in Sydney to open the fund's Australia office.

Fears of a global recession continue to grow amid challenges posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis and a sharply slowing Chinese economy. The International Monetary Fund, while forecasting global growth of 2.7% in 2023, warned this month that countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy are poised to contract this year or next.

"We expect more slowdown ... we do not know the extent of that or how far it will go," Lim said.

"As an investor we would certainly stress test our portfolio. When we underwrite a deal we will have to consider the scenario of recession," he added.

Lim also said, however, that he was confident global central banks could contain inflation and eventually bring it down.

GIC is ranked as the world's fifth-biggest sovereign investor with $690 billion in assets, according to research firm Global SWF. The fund has said its assets are worth more than $100 billion.

Lim also said that GIC is looking at opportunities in Australia's renewable energy industry and related sectors, as the country's economy has been comparatively resilient.

"As every country deals with this inflation challenge, we think Australia can handle this relatively well," he said.

While Australia currently accounts for a very small share of GIC's portfolio and is largely limited to real estate assets, the country has the potential to play a big role in the global energy transition, Lim said.

"If there are suitable projects or assets in Australia, our infrastructure team will definitely want to look at it very closely," he added.

Lim also said China will continue to be a focus for GIC, which counts e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group Holding (9988.HK) and food delivery giant Meituan (3690.HK) among its investments.

"For many years, China has done a great job in their reform and opening-up policy. We expect China to continue to do so. The general direction of China emphasising growth and reforms – we don't see any change to that," he said.

Not surprisingly lor......

Just see the "Living with Covid Makan thread" , a thread that I use as a leading indicator where everyone is still eating big fish big meat meals (despite the inflation) ..........tells me the potential of a global slowdown is very real. 😄

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-consumer-price-inflation-101-september-ons-2022-10-19/

Soaring food prices push UK inflation back to 40-year high

• UK inflation hits 10.1% in September, matching 40-year high
• Food prices rise by most since 1980
• Pounds slips on data, BoE under pressure to raise rates

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The biggest jump in food prices since 1980 pushed British inflation back into double digits last month, matching a 40-year high hit in July in a new blow for households grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

The Office for National Statistics said the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 10.1% in annual terms in September. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 10.0%, after a 9.9% rise in August.

The pound slipped below $1.13 on the news and was last down 0.2% on the day.

The figures hammered home the difficult environment for British households, especially those on the lowest incomes, who face new uncertainty about the extent of financial support available to them after recent government U-turns.

The Bank of England will also feel under pressure to step up its interest rate hiking campaign next month in light of Wednesday's data.

[noobcarbuyer]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boes-hauser-mini-budget-caused-full-scale-liquidation-event-pension-funds-2022-10-19/

BoE's Hauser: Mini-budget caused 'full-scale liquidation event' for pension funds

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The fallout in gilt markets from the British government's mini-budget was a "full-scale liquidation event" for pension funds, whose investment managers were calling the Bank of England with increasing alarm, the central bank's Executive Director for Markets said.

"This was a situation that went from 'we're ringing you to let you know' to shouting on the phone to us, within two days," Andrew Hauser told lawmakers on parliament's Treasury committee on Wednesday. "This was a full-scale liquidation event."

Pension funds were forced to offload billions of pounds of UK government bonds, or gilts, at distressed prices last month after the government's announcement of tax cuts sent yields soaring, triggering margin calls on derivatives designed to protect the funds against movements in rates.

Markets were now better prepared for sharp rises in yields, BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe told the lawmakers, with so-called liability-driven investment strategies ready for a sudden 200 basis point rise.

LDI managers were previously equipped for a 100 basis point rise in yields, which did not account for the scale of the move following the mini-budget.

"The LDI episode is mostly behind us," Cunliffe said.

[noobcarbuyer]

5 minutes ago, Starry said:

Not surprisingly lor......

Just see the "Living with Covid Makan thread" , a thread that I use as a leading indicator where everyone is still eating big fish big meat meals (despite the inflation) ..........tells me the potential of a global slowdown is very real. 😄

From what I hear, semi-conductor companies are the canaries in the mines. 

Once they start downsizing, it means they are expecting a reduction in demand for chips 6 to 12 months later. 

Heresay nia. Not sure how true this is. 

[Jellandross]

 

 

[Throttle2]

17 hours ago, noobcarbuyer said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/business/china-gdp-delay.html

China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics

The unusual move comes as the country’s ruling elite have gathered in Beijing for the twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, announced without explanation on Monday that it was delaying indefinitely the release of economic data that had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, including closely watched numbers for economic growth from July through September, which had been expected to show continued lackluster performance.

The delay by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which analysts said was highly unusual, comes as the country’s ruling elite gather in Beijing for a weeklong, twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party. The authorities have taken elaborate measures to prevent any disruptions during the gathering, from halting almost all travel into Beijing to requiring frequent Covid-19 tests across practically the entire country.

The postponement of the report drew speculation that the data might have been worse than officials expected. Western economists had been predicting that China would announce that the economy grew a little more than 3 percent in the third quarter compared with last year. That would be better than the growth of just 0.4 percent in the second quarter, when a two-month pandemic lockdown in Shanghai severely depressed many industries’ output.

But it would still be far below the target that Beijing set in March, aiming for growth of “about 5.5 percent” this year.

Large countries seldom postpone the release of even a single economic statistic for fear of hurting financial confidence, much less the broad array of market-moving data that China’s National Bureau of Statistics has now delayed. In addition to deferring the release of gross domestic product data for the third quarter, the government agency postponed the release of September data for retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment and other categories.

“I’ve not come across before a situation where a whole raft of statistical reporting has just been postponed, in nearly half a century of monitoring data releases — not even in times of pestilence and conflict,” said George Magnus, a former chief economist of UBS who is now an associate at the China Center at Oxford University.

Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, had taken an upbeat tone about the Chinese economy during a news conference on Monday morning at the media center of the party congress.

“Judging from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter — from a global perspective, China’s economic performance is still outstanding,” he said.

After the close of trading on Chinese stock exchanges on Monday afternoon, the National Bureau of Statistics canceled its quarterly news conference, which had been scheduled for Tuesday morning, and updated its online calendar of data releases to show many categories as “delayed.”

Another agency, the General Administration of Customs, had separately failed on Friday to follow its own previously issued schedule for the release of export and import statistics for September. The release of those numbers has also been delayed indefinitely.

Chinese officials have been trying to rebut growing criticisms from foreign economists and multinational corporations that China now puts politics and ideology ahead of economic performance. Mr. Zhao said on Monday morning that because of the government’s pandemic policies and emphasis on economic development, “China’s economic stabilization and improvement will be further consolidated.”

As China has grown to become the world’s largest manufacturer and a major trading power, and home to some of the world’s biggest banks, it has repeatedly struggled with how its Communist Party-dominated political structure communicates with financial markets.

For example, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced with almost no explanation in August 2015 that it was devaluing the country’s currency, the renminbi, by nearly 2 percent. The move was intended as a technical measure connected to bringing the renminbi into the International Monetary Fund’s system of reserve currencies.

But the sudden move contributed considerably to a panic in financial markets in China and abroad that lasted into the next winter, driving down share prices in China and causing investors to move hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country.

In recent years, the National Bureau of Statistics has quietly discontinued hundreds of series of data on narrow subjects, like the output of specific types of coal or raw silk. Foreign economists used to rely on some of the reports to double-check the veracity and plausibility of broader government data, such as overall economic growth statistics.

“Analyzing China has always been a tough gig, but the way you can get things right is by looking at as much information and data as you can and try to fit as many pieces of the puzzle together into a coherent picture,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London consulting firm. “This has become progressively harder over the past few years as China has become a lot less open.”

Deng Xiao Ping will rise from his grave…..