The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market III

[Throttle2]

1 hour ago, Lala81 said:

If anyone has any non-REIT dividend ideas, please share. 

 

Netlink trust?

Keppel Infra Trust?

[Lala81]

1 minute ago, Throttle2 said:

Netlink trust?

Keppel Infra Trust?

I looked at KIT before but it seems their distributions maybe unsustainable. the utilities infrastructure depreciation model also being a question mark. So decided to give it a pass. 

Forgot about Netlink. Will take a look. Thanks. 

[TangoCharlie]

2 hours ago, Lala81 said:

If anyone has any non-REIT dividend ideas, please share. 

 

Coupons from bonds? We are under exposed on bonds as not easily accessible to retail. I have a perp and 5 year one from banks. 

But don't be kk like me. 😂 Wait for T2 signal. 

[Throttle2]

4 hours ago, TangoCharlie said:

Coupons from bonds? We are under exposed on bonds as not easily accessible to retail. I have a perp and 5 year one from banks. 

But don't be kk like me. 😂 Wait for T2 signal. 

I already signalled. in Jan leh
i have started loading up on fixed income high yields since very early Jan. 
still doing so over next few weeks. 
yielding about 10%pa

[Wt_know]

AMDK Techs cheong ah ... when is the turn for PRC Techs ....

[Voodooman]

1 hour ago, Throttle2 said:

I already signalled. in Jan leh
i have started loading up on fixed income high yields since very early Jan. 
still doing so over next few weeks. 
yielding about 10%pa

AHY? Got 10%?

[Throttle2]

31 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

AHY? Got 10%?

Yes. 

[Voodooman]

8 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

Yes. 

10% is really good. I got burnt earlier on AHY, with a possible global recession on the horizon, i scare. 

[Wt_know]

$3.00 liao ... slowly but surely .... cheong ah!

[TangoCharlie]

10 hours ago, Voodooman said:

AHY? Got 10%?

 

9 hours ago, Throttle2 said:

Yes. 

TYTY. Might as well since my tbill boh tio. 

But my AHY fund, one of the eastspring ones, only 7.5% pa prospective at current price. Trailing 12 months below 6%.

Yours 10% is fund or bond? 

[Lala81]

48 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

10% is really good. I got burnt earlier on AHY, with a possible global recession on the horizon, i scare. 

haha i don't want to be greedy for yield then get burnt like i did for reits.
if got something more conservative but around 5.5-6% i don't mind.

 

[Throttle2]

38 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

10% is really good. I got burnt earlier on AHY, with a possible global recession on the horizon, i scare. 

I understand, i was burnt too after many many years of collecting 6%pa becos there was a higher composition of chinese names in that instrument i bought.   So i threw out all when China was giving way and rates were on the rise.  Took a $100k capital hit there unfortunately. So it was like not making anything after i factored in the coupons for those many years

Then with rates shooting to the sky, what more a better time to do the reverse and buy back a diversified bag of HY cheaply and sit on it.  10% yields currently, with the strong propensity to shoot up in price should rates start to fall.  
in fact becos i dilly dallied, i didnt catch it at the lowest and missed a 10% capital surge within a matter of days.

as of now prices have stabilised a bit with minor daily movements with yields at 10%pa.  It is still trading at 25% cheaper than before as you can imagine.   
 

while you keep being afraid of global recession, i am of the opposite.  

recessions are nothing to be afraid of.  They are just part of the economic cycle.  And they are necessary.

so say there is a recession now, what will fed do after accumulating so much rates……they will be able to cut.  And HY fixed income prices will shoot up more. 

And thats why i am happy when fed raise the rates.  If they dont, they have nothing to cut when recession or trouble comes along.  Then you get another Japan.   Yen rates have been low for 40yrs, look where they are today compared to their glorious 80s…..

 

 

 

[Throttle2]

13 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

haha i don't want to be greedy for yield then get burnt like i did for reits.
if got something more conservative but around 5.5-6% i don't mind.

 

You got burnt in reits becos you chose the wrong one at the wrong time.  It wasnt really greed, it was perhaps inexperience or shortage of info.

Edited February 3 by Throttle2

[Voodooman]

4 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

haha i don't want to be greedy for yield then get burnt like i did for reits.
if got something more conservative but around 5.5-6% i don't mind.

 

Yes, i put some money into 1 investment grade bond fund recently, 5-6% is really good enough for me, capital protection is more important.  

 

 

[Throttle2]

27 minutes ago, TangoCharlie said:

 

TYTY. Might as well since my tbill boh tio. 

But my AHY fund, one of the eastspring ones, only 7.5% pa prospective at current price. Trailing 12 months below 6%.

Yours 10% is fund or bond? 

Depends on the composition.  
fund with monthly distribution. 

[Throttle2]

Just now, Voodooman said:

Yes, i put some money into 1 investment grade bond fund recently, 5-6% is really good enough for me, capital protection is more important.  

 

 

Thats also good.  As long as you get in. Now is the time.

[Voodooman]

4 minutes ago, Throttle2 said:

I understand, i was burnt too after many many years of collecting 6%pa becos there was a higher composition of chinese names in that instrument i bought.   So i threw out all when China was giving way and rates were on the rise.  Took a $100k capital hit there unfortunately. So it was like not making anything after i factored in the coupons for those many years

Then with rates shooting to the sky, what more a better time to do the reverse and buy back a diversified bag of HY cheaply and sit on it.  10% yields currently, with the strong propensity to shoot up in price should rates start to fall.  
in fact becos i dilly dallied, i didnt catch it at the lowest and missed a 10% capital surge within a matter of days.

as of now prices have stabilised a bit with minor daily movements with yields at 10%pa.  It is still trading at 25% cheaper than before as you can imagine.   
 

while you keep being afraid of global recession, i am of the opposite.  

recessions are nothing to be afraid of.  They are just part of the economic cycle.  And they are necessary.

so say there is a recession now, what will fed do after accumulating so much rates……they will be able to cut.  And HY fixed income prices will shoot up more. 

And thats why i am happy when fed raise the rates.  If they dont, they have nothing to cut when recession or trouble comes along.  Then you get another Japan.   Yen rates have been low for 40yrs, look where they are today compared to their glorious 80s…..

 

 

 

Understand your view.

If US engineered a soft landing and interest rate stays high, REITs can't run and may be a value trap. A hard landing with successive cut to interest rate may be more positive for REITs and bonds but I am reluctant to bet too much against Fed. 

I am reading a soft landing (US labor market seems to be tight and it is a domestic consumption driven economy) but you seems to have a more recessionary view (or praying for one). Lol

If recession is imminent, then better to keep bullets to load on equities and it makes perfect sense to load bonds now. 

 

[Throttle2]

59 minutes ago, Wt_know said:

$3.00 liao ... slowly but surely .... cheong ah!

song ah!