China’s population highly likely to see negative growth for 2022 or 2023 at the latest: experts

[Windwaver]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283925.shtml

China's National Bureau of Statistics will soon release the country's population data for 2022. Population and economic experts predicted that China's population will see negative growth for 2022 or 2023 at the latest. 

China's population grew by just 480,000 to 1.4126 billion in 2021, the lowest growth rate since 1962, and demographers say a national decline appears inevitable as the birth rate falls and people live longer, warning that China's population is approaching the warning line of negative growth.

China's total population size peaked in 2022, much earlier than expected, which means the country's population will see negative growth from 2023 or enter an era of negative growth after 2023, Cai Fang, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said previously.

Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development at Nankai University's School of Economics, said in 2022 that negative population growth is the inevitable result of the country's long-term low fertility rate, and China's population has entered an era of zero growth.

Birth data for 2021 released by 31 provinces and regions in China showed that 13 provinces had a negative population growth rate, and only six among the top 10 provinces had birth numbers exceeding 500,000 .

Among the 13 provinces, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Tianjin recorded negative population growth for the first time in recent decades. In addition, Shandong and Anhui provinces are also on the verge of negative population growth.

India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, the UN projects. India was home to 1.417 billion people as of 2022, compared to China's 1.426 billion, according to the UN, noting that India's population continues to grow while China's population is expected to decline to 1.313 billion by 2050.

China implemented the third-child policy in May of 2021 and rolled out a series of stimulus measures to boost population growth. A number of cities or provinces across the country have rolled out incentive policies such as issuing subsidies to families with a second or third child.

The latest move by Shenzhen in South China's Guangdong Province has been to solicit public opinion on childcare subsidies. The subsidies for "third child" families can reach up to 19,000 yuan ($2,800) over the course of three years.

More than a dozen cities across China have implemented preferential housing policies since last May to encourage families with two or three children to buy more homes. The incentives include breaking the property-purchasing limit, and offering housing loans and subsidies.  

However, China has entered a new era of negative population growth, which is an irreversible trend. The aging population has entered a deeper stage and will increase faster and faster in the future, which will pose new challenges for economic and social development.

[Windwaver]

Follow us?

[inlinesix]

2 minutes ago, Windwaver said:

Follow us?

Yes.

One is enough was not reversed till 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

Edited January 17, 2023 by inlinesix

[Windwaver]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64300190

China's population falls for first time since 1961

China's population has fallen for the first time in 60 years, with the national birth rate hitting a record low - 6.77 births per 1,000 people.

The population in 2022 - 1.4118 billion - fell by 850,000 from 2021.

China's birth rate has been declining for years, prompting a slew of policies to try to slow the trend.

But seven years after scrapping the one-child policy, it has entered what one official described as an "era of negative population growth".

The birth rate in 2022 was also down from 7.52 in 2021, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, which released the figures on Tuesday.

In comparison, in 2021, the United States recorded 11.06 births per 1,000 people, and the United Kingdom, 10.08 births. The birth rate for the same year in India, which is poised to overtake China as the world's most populous country, was 16.42.

Deaths also outnumbered births for the first time last year in China. The country logged its highest death rate since 1976 - 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, up from 7.18 the previous year.

Earlier government data had heralded a demographic crisis, which would in the long run shrink China's labour force and increase the burden on healthcare and other social security costs.

Results from a once-a-decade census announced in 2021 showed China's population growing at its slowest pace in decades. Populations are also shrinking and ageing in other East Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea.

"This trend is going to continue and perhaps worsen after Covid," says Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Ms Su is among experts who expect China's population to shrink further through 2023.

"The high youth unemployment rate and weaknesses in income expectations could delay marriage and childbirth plans further, dragging down the number of newborns," she added.

And the death rate in 2023 is likely to be higher than it was pre-pandemic due to Covid infections, she said. China has seen a surge of cases since it abandoned its zero-Covid policy last month.

China's population trends over the years have been largely shaped by the controversial one-child policy, which was introduced in 1979 to slow population growth. Families that violated the rules were fined and, in some cases, even lost jobs. In a culture that historically favours boys over girls, the policy had also led to forced abortions and a reportedly skewed gender ratio from the 1980s.

The policy was scrapped in 2016 and married couples were allowed to have two children. In recent years, the Chinese government also offered tax breaks and better maternal healthcare, among other incentives, to reverse, or at least slow, the falling birth rate.

But these policies did not lead to a sustained increase in the births. Some experts say this is because policies that encouraged childbirth were not accompanied by efforts to ease the burden of childcare, such as more help for working mothers or access to education.

In October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping made boosting birth rates a priority. Mr Xi said in a once-in-five-year Communist Party Congress in Beijing that his government would "pursue a proactive national strategy" in response to the country's ageing population.

Apart from dishing out incentives to have children, China should also improve gender equality in households and workplaces, said Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, director of the National University of Singapore's Centre for Family and Population Research.

Scandinavian countries have shown that such moves can improve fertility rates, she added.

According to Paul Cheung, Singapore's former chief statistician, China has "plenty of manpower" and "a lot of lead time" to manage the demographic challenge.

"They are not in a doomsday scenario right away," he said.

Observers also say merely raising birth rates will not resolve the problems behind China's slowing growth.

"Boosting fertility is not going to improve productivity or increase domestic consumption in the medium term," said Stuart Gietel-Basten, a public policy professor at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

"How China will respond to these structural issues would be more crucial."

[Volvobrick]

In future SE Asians/Africans/Eastern Europeans/South Americans will be encouraged to move to China. No worries! 

[inlinesix]

1 minute ago, Volvobrick said:

In future SE Asians/Africans/Eastern Europeans/South Americans will be encouraged to move to China. No worries! 

Only Chinese Diaspora will be encouraged to go back.
You will get China citizenship if you can prove your ancestor comes from China

Edited January 17, 2023 by inlinesix

[Sosaria]

It doesn't help at all that ATB are mostly pragmatic when it comes to marriage. Love is not enough, must have everything lined up nicely; stable, well-paying jobs, good family, good income, own property, etc. etc.

Anything not in order, not only delays marriage, can also lead to divorce; abort baby also can.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/cna-insider/human-suffering-china-property-crisis-mortgage-boycott-evergrande-2976461

[Inlinefour]

1 hour ago, inlinesix said:

Only Chinese Diaspora will be encouraged to go back.
You will get China citizenship if you can prove your ancestor comes from China

can ask tiongkok syt xmm for help? 🤩🤩🤩

[Jamesc]

Demographic time bomb.

[inlinesix]

5 hours ago, Inlinefour said:

can ask tiongkok syt xmm for help? 🤩🤩🤩

Of course can😂

[mersaylee]

7 hours ago, inlinesix said:

Only Chinese Diaspora will be encouraged to go back.
You will get China citizenship if you can prove your ancestor comes from China

Easy beasy lah...just say the late great ah gong had passed down family slogan..."CCP wanshui" then flash the luggage bag of USD...😁

[Inlinefour]

2 hours ago, inlinesix said:

Of course can😂

let's contribute to tiongkok nation building oops population building 🙈🙉🙊

[Watwheels]

Compared to sg. The couples here are busy making babies during covid. But in sg it is different cos of the job and financial support given to the ppl. In China ppl lost their jobs and are starving at home under quarantines. We shouldnt laugh at them. For a country so big with such a big population it is difficult to control and manage everything.

[inlinesix]

 

[Wt_know]

lockdown 3 years at home no piak piak to increase population? lol

must wait for Dragon year liao 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Wt_know

[Si4dr]

I am not so worry on China have negative population growth, I am more concern on the country that will overtake them.....

[Wt_know]

6 minutes ago, Si4dr said:

I am not so worry on China have negative population growth, I am more concern on the country that will overtake them.....

no worry la

that country has a very tok-kong no need scientific proven remedy of mandi at polluted river and lim cow urine to beat Covid virus

win liao … slightly above compare to amdk to inject chrolox bleach disinfectant 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Wt_know

[Inlinefour]

23 minutes ago, Si4dr said:

I am not so worry on China have negative population growth, I am more concern on the country that will overtake them.....

but pinky loves them deep deep 🙊🙉🙈