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LTA to adjust COE quota calculation again to reduce supply volatility


Mkl22
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15 hours ago, Comage said:

You have opened my eyes, Sir. 

Thank you for sharing your valuable opinions! 

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

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2 hours ago, Cheesey74 said:

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

When you talk about meritocracy, it will be competency of each individual.

Unlike housing, car is considered “luxury”.

Otherwise, we will have a system like HDB for car.

Even Govt also no use

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2 hours ago, Cheesey74 said:

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

I think the best way is to leave the COE system untouched, but follow HDB method of giving rebates to the needy.

 

Maybe can give families with small kids a $50k COE rebate for Cat A cars. And that this car cannot be transferred and only deregistered if possible. This will help families which need car, and prevent them from profiting from it. 
 

But the Govt probably wouldn’t do it unfortunately. They are going down the path of car-lite and trying to convince everyone, including large families, that they can do without cars. And then they wonder why there’s falling birth rate lol

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I had thought it was weird that recently we see an increasing number of toys rage incidents, ever since the pandemic times - is this the general behavior of the affluent? 

Strange indeed

 

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It s WAKE UP call, We can shout kelong also no use, Traffic congestion is the main problem to solve, thy have installed ERPs, suck our money, thy have added more highways and narrow down stream, plus created more lanes, still it does not solve much of traffic woes.

LTA can increase and decrease charges all thy want, still it cannot solved the main traffic snarl, so are the ICA borders custom checkpoints, the objectives is to ask Motorists to take MRT to work and I can tell you it will still create MRT jams like sardine.

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On 1/21/2023 at 2:58 PM, Mkl22 said:

image.png.9ac56cd6d685e99c4de00267b64c9ae2.png

 

Just a basic comparison.

the % renew is COE renewals for the year vs total new registrations.

I arbitrarily put an estimate average price for COE for the whole year, after scanning thru the PQP values. might not be too accurate, but i think good enough as an indicator.

Y-Axis is percentage and COE price in thousands.

If you look only at the % renewals, Cat A is curious.in 2016 there was a huge % of renewals even though the PQP Price was 50k+. i would think the bump in renewals was to support the big upswing in PHV demand. cat B seemed to follow the trend of lower COE prices and thus more renewals. Or it could also be that Cat A typically has a lower PARF, so to support the PHV demand for cars, CATA cars are more targeted compared with CatB.

renewal rates were also surprisingly high for 2017-2020. hitting almost 60% for catB in 2019. these are combined 5 and 10 year renewal figures.

image.png.a72c334ff24ea525a2e4ae9a7949595b.png

wah seh. U guys making things very complex. Simple folk like me can't follow.

 

So rough ballpark 2 year range, when is the supply going to increase again provided LTA don't adjust things too much? 2026-2028?

I already sucker one time already in 2015 with COE 75k. Have to be bit smarter the next time round. At most just buy old car to dong another 2-3 years until the next cycle. 

My wife's COE is 2018. That car i will just extend since it's a low mileage Cat A car and low PARF. 

 

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On 1/22/2023 at 5:02 PM, yishunite said:

Unpopular opinion here but given prices of cars, our taxi/PHV charges are way too low. Should actually be much higher. Always got shortage because fares are not high enough, is simple econs.

You see price of taxi in US or Europe yet their car can cost a few thousand only

This is simple Econs that transport taking public refuse to acknowledge. Private hire rides should not be so cheap. It is door to door travel, how can it be so low priced? Worse still the phv company try to solve the issue by allowing part time hitch driving with an even lower fare structure (no surge pricing at all).

We are the only so-called 1st world country with 3rd world country's taxi / phv fares.

Raising fares is only way to solve shortage problem. When potential earning is high , phv owners will be incentivised to ply the roads more frequently.

Cannot afford it or feel too expensive, there's always bus and MRT [laugh]

 

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2 hours ago, Lala81 said:

wah seh. U guys making things very complex. Simple folk like me can't follow.

 

So rough ballpark 2 year range, when is the supply going to increase again provided LTA don't adjust things too much? 2026-2028?

I already sucker one time already in 2015 with COE 75k. Have to be bit smarter the next time round. At most just buy old car to dong another 2-3 years until the next cycle. 

My wife's COE is 2018. That car i will just extend since it's a low mileage Cat A car and low PARF. 

 

I’ll say 2026-2029 is the bumper year. Ceteris paribus 

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4 hours ago, Sosaria said:

This is simple Econs that transport taking public refuse to acknowledge. Private hire rides should not be so cheap. It is door to door travel, how can it be so low priced? Worse still the phv company try to solve the issue by allowing part time hitch driving with an even lower fare structure (no surge pricing at all).

We are the only so-called 1st world country with 3rd world country's taxi / phv fares.

Raising fares is only way to solve shortage problem. When potential earning is high , phv owners will be incentivised to ply the roads more frequently.

Cannot afford it or feel too expensive, there's always bus and MRT [laugh]

I agree that PHV/taxi fares are too cheap when compared to other developed nations. This encourages many youngsters and people who can easily afford the fares to frequently take PHV/taxis at a whim and in turn, deprive those who NEEDs them.

Why there are still people saying that they NEED (not want) a private car that they can use anytime they want still beats me. Got 2 or 3 kids? Got elderly parents on wheelchair?

If these group of people can be assured that 99% of the time, they can get a taxi/phv anytime of the day within 15 mins or less, I don't think they would still feel they need to own a car.

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14 hours ago, pengu said:

I think the best way is to leave the COE system untouched, but follow HDB method of giving rebates to the needy.

 

Maybe can give families with small kids a $50k COE rebate for Cat A cars. And that this car cannot be transferred and only deregistered if possible. This will help families which need car, and prevent them from profiting from it. 
 

But the Govt probably wouldn’t do it unfortunately. They are going down the path of car-lite and trying to convince everyone, including large families, that they can do without cars. And then they wonder why there’s falling birth rate lol

Car is a luxury, at least for 99% of the families out there, a car is a want, a lifestyle choice. As a taxpayer, I do not want my money to go helping people obtain a lifestyle item.

Rather than using taxpayers money to subsidise cars for people who feel they "need" it, I'd rather the govt use it to subsidise HDB, public hospital or public transport fares.

If there is anything the govt can do, i would prefer that they allow taxi/PHV pricing to surge till like over $100 bucks during peak period/unearthly hours. This will ensure that capacity is reserved for those who feel they NEED a ride (sickly/wheelchair bound parents, sick kids or just want to travel to the shopping mall under a heavy downpour with 3 young kids etc).

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On 1/21/2023 at 10:04 PM, Comage said:

Don't need to put much rocket science into this theory of "bump in renewals" - hear me out:

It's simply because loans for COE renewals can be taken from any car dealer who offers 0% downpayment and 10year loans.

Someone told me AD can't do such shit - so buyers are "forced" to go by MAS rules.

So, many people renew to keep their "car ownership" dreams alive - and to circumvent the MAS rules.

Coincidentally, many have started to own a car with the "help" of the PHV label - this is the reason why we see:

1) Lesser PHVs available for booking - everyone's complaining about lack of cars when they try to book one. Because everyone's owning it as a "supplement" to their lifestyle and not serious full-time drivers plying the road for passengers

2) Odd-model PHvs appearing, e.g. hatchbacks like Jazz, Swift, Yaris, even Note also got PHVs appearing on the road. And then on the other spectrum, models that are not even fuel-economical like VW Touran/Tiguans, and E200s or 5ers (which you can tell are not not hotel nor hospital fleet vehicles as the car dashboard is cluttered with personal items and sometimes there's even a child seat behind).

---

That is why I suggested those 2 points that I said before to clamp down hard on people buying cars by overleveraging their finances:

 

I agree that what you had highlighted makes sense. However, I don't think they are not the main contributor to the sky high COE we see today. Why do I say that?

  • PHV or hitch drivers are not new. They have been around since like 2017. COE started climbing like crazy since Q2 2021.
  • All those so called 0% down payment or 10 year loans have been around as long as COE has been invented. It's not something that just appeared from 2021.
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I am happy because higher government income would  mean i can expect more CDC vouchers. Moreover minister said government will tax the rich more to help the poor, so we should all feel happy, only the rich ones should kpkb about it, dont tell me you all are the rich ones except myself? 😁😁😁

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6 hours ago, Mkl22 said:

I’ll say 2026-2029 is the bumper year. Ceteris paribus 

But the new system will create a 12 month delay of COE coming into the market , which will create a pen up demand consistently, resulting in higher than expected COE price than it should be. Imagine when  many more people scrap their cars  this year, but those additional COEs will only be recycled in 12 months time, resulting in a supply/demand imbalance for people to compete for COE, the end result of COE price can only be one way - up.

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18 hours ago, pengu said:

I think the best way is to leave the COE system untouched, but follow HDB method of giving rebates to the needy.

 

Maybe can give families with small kids a $50k COE rebate for Cat A cars. And that this car cannot be transferred and only deregistered if possible. This will help families which need car, and prevent them from profiting from it. 
 

But the Govt probably wouldn’t do it unfortunately. They are going down the path of car-lite and trying to convince everyone, including large families, that they can do without cars. And then they wonder why there’s falling birth rate lol

Singapore will become a unique country that most of the cars on the road are carrying kids around.

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On 1/22/2023 at 11:46 PM, Voodooman said:

Didn't I mentioned earlier that it is more of a supply than demand issue?

Demand is growing but it is not driven by over leveraging. And PHV demand has always been there.  

You can't cut Cat A+B COE quota from 80-90k a year to 30k a year and expect COE premium to not go through the roof.  It happens everytime. 

Many of us studied LTA data and bought during 2018/2019, after > 30 years of COE regime, it is not rocket science and getting rather predictable.

Yes you did - I agree that looking at the reduced COE supply - this definitely plays a major contributing factor.

We can't cut supply and expect prices to not go up.

On 1/22/2023 at 12:36 PM, Voodooman said:

Didn't you realize more empty lots these days at HDB car parks, especially at night? Numbers of cars on the road are the same but the profile of car owners have shifted and it is not towards the marginal buyers but the rich and double income PMET families. These are not your marginal buyers who need to leverage up to afford a car. 

Anyway, private transport is increasing the domain of the rich in Singapore, that is undeniable. 

You think recent COE demand is driven by high loan and marginal buyers, I totally disagree. You are barking up the wrong tree. 

 

This one, I noticed at my estate as well. There is like a -50 difference (out of 500-600 vehicles) at my estate from before pandemic (pre-2019) and now (2022 onwards).

But I have my observations (see next response):

21 hours ago, Cheesey74 said:

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

This one, I agree I have the same observations - that there seems to be a trend of increasing empty lots (at night), since 2H 2022 as I also noticed.

But, my observation is one of that due to re-opening of borders, people are resuming cross-border trips to Malaysia/JB. I say this because I often park at the topmost level of my estate MSCP - so I pass by all of the vehicles in my car park (and I more or less know who's who) - the upper-level decks are usually taken up by "chiongster" cars that come back home late at night (i.e. those modded or rarer models).

Since 2H 2022 onwards,  I see less of these cars parking overnight at the MSCP (that -50 give or take 10 cars or so) - though I still see them parked back at the MSCP during the day.

I also did observe the following at my estate (with regards to my overleveraging observation):

1. There is one guy driving a hatchback, who "upsized" to a sedan. The sedan had a PHV label. The license plates was carried over to the new ride, so that's how I knew.

2. There is another guy who was driving a Honda sedan pre-pandemic. During the pandemic early stages in Q1 2020 - this guy upgraded to a Mercedes sedan. Then in late 2022 - he downsized to a  Hyundai hatchback. Again, the same license plates carried over, so I know. Very classic case of overleveraging.

3. A few vehicles (2 to 3) that are conti sedan/SUVs, with PHV labels. I seen the owners go to work by public transport during the day, so I have no idea how this thing works for them... (office got no parking? office is just 2 bus stops away? I don't know...)

You can say - eh harloe? You stupid or what? You see 1, 2 case and then you conclude?
I won't really insist I'm 100% correct - but such observations are usually the "tip of the iceberg" - so I'm pretty sure what I see are not isolated cases (outliers), and that there's more who are in the same situation as well.

14 hours ago, Comage said:

I had thought it was weird that recently we see an increasing number of road rage incidents, ever since the pandemic times - is this the general behavior of the affluent? 

Strange indeed

 

Typo in my previous post - have corrected it here...

@Voodooman I believe what you said above is correct still - as I have indeed seen guys in my estate change cars 2-3 times (to higher-end models) over the course of the pandemic from 2019-2022 (again, they carried forward their plates so I know).

But I'm not sure what to make of what I am seeing on the roads daily - where does the worsening traffic jam situations come from these days, if more vehicles are owned by a single (rich) household? Unless it is really the case of "I drive one (car), my wife drives one, we are working professionals; we need to travel"? Then each member of the household gets 1 car each, and thus the net effect is that worsening shitty traffic jam situation that we see.... oh wait, hmm you could really be correct here!

The "overleveraging" theory is not something that came out of my mind from thin air - but from anecdotal observations (from my estate MSCP). Though I will say that we obviously see different trends/behavior of car owners in the carpark/estates that we stay in... maybe we are seeing things from both ends of the same spectrum (?)...

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2 hours ago, Comage said:

Yes you did - I agree that looking at the reduced COE supply - this definitely plays a major contributing factor.

We can't cut supply and expect prices to not go up.

This one, I noticed at my estate as well. There is like a -50 difference (out of 500-600 vehicles) at my estate from before pandemic (pre-2019) and now (2022 onwards).

But I have my observations (see next response):

This one, I agree I have the same observations - that there seems to be a trend of increasing empty lots (at night), since 2H 2022 as I also noticed.

But, my observation is one of that due to re-opening of borders, people are resuming cross-border trips to Malaysia/JB. I say this because I often park at the topmost level of my estate MSCP - so I pass by all of the vehicles in my car park (and I more or less know who's who) - the upper-level decks are usually taken up by "chiongster" cars that come back home late at night (i.e. those modded or rarer models).

Since 2H 2022 onwards,  I see less of these cars parking overnight at the MSCP (that -50 give or take 10 cars or so) - though I still see them parked back at the MSCP during the day.

I also did observe the following at my estate (with regards to my overleveraging observation):

1. There is one guy driving a hatchback, who "upsized" to a sedan. The sedan had a PHV label. The license plates was carried over to the new ride, so that's how I knew.

2. There is another guy who was driving a Honda sedan pre-pandemic. During the pandemic early stages in Q1 2020 - this guy upgraded to a Mercedes sedan. Then in late 2022 - he downsized to a  Hyundai hatchback. Again, the same license plates carried over, so I know. Very classic case of overleveraging.

3. A few vehicles (2 to 3) that are conti sedan/SUVs, with PHV labels. I seen the owners go to work by public transport during the day, so I have no idea how this thing works for them... (office got no parking? office is just 2 bus stops away? I don't know...)

You can say - eh harloe? You stupid or what? You see 1, 2 case and then you conclude?
I won't really insist I'm 100% correct - but such observations are usually the "tip of the iceberg" - so I'm pretty sure what I see are not isolated cases (outliers), and that there's more who are in the same situation as well.

Typo in my previous post - have corrected it here...

@Voodooman I believe what you said above is correct still - as I have indeed seen guys in my estate change cars 2-3 times (to higher-end models) over the course of the pandemic from 2019-2022 (again, they carried forward their plates so I know).

But I'm not sure what to make of what I am seeing on the roads daily - where does the worsening traffic jam situations come from these days, if more vehicles are owned by a single (rich) household? Unless it is really the case of "I drive one (car), my wife drives one, we are working professionals; we need to travel"? Then each member of the household gets 1 car each, and thus the net effect is that worsening shitty traffic jam situation that we see.... oh wait, hmm you could really be correct here!

The "overleveraging" theory is not something that came out of my mind from thin air - but from anecdotal observations (from my estate MSCP). Though I will say that we obviously see different trends/behavior of car owners in the carpark/estates that we stay in... maybe we are seeing things from both ends of the same spectrum (?)...

Bro. i tell u from my observations, those well off relatives n frens of mine is really 1 person drive 1 car, even their child ns or study poly/uni also drive car there, so u see they have no qualms on buying a car if they FEEL they need them, then again among them there is still 1 group who buy normal jap/korea or entry conti B&B cars n the other who r more atas like 5 or E kinda cars, despite they r highly likely in the same plane of wealth, so here u go... we r simply poor n the poor mundane folks like to kpkb abt unfair this unfair that, hahaha!

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