LTA to adjust COE quota calculation again to reduce supply volatility

[Kopites]

2 hours ago, inlinesix said:

Constant adjustment is good especially when it is no longer applicable.

Change is constant.

What is good for you might not be good for me. The terminology good is very subjective. The only so called objective has not been achieved. Still so congested!

[Mkl22]

29 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

At least 4 years from now for quota to increase substantially for $50k COE to return.  Need to take into account the 6 months lag for COE to be recycled.

Think most COE cars are on 10 years extended COE. If true, 5-6 years later, we will have a tsunami of COEs. 

 

majority of the coe revalidation is in CatA for 5years.

i would say that quite some of the 2016 COE renewed cars were also scrapped early in 2018-2019 as the coe dropped by almost half.

anyway 2023-2024 we should see almost 40k being scrapped from the 5year renewals and assuming 90% of the 8-10year old cars will be scrapped then total amount should be around 65-67K for 2years

Edited January 20, 2023 by Mkl22

[Benarsenal]

11 minutes ago, Stratovarius said:

gahman dont do anything we kpkb. They gonna do something we still kpkb. lol. We should be call gen kpkb. 🤣

The issue is the thing they do don't make any sense, and doesn't help matters. Just lip service only.

[inlinesix]

2 minutes ago, Kopites said:

What is good for you might not be good for me. The terminology good is very subjective. The only so called objective has not been achieved. Still so congested!

COE is not for congestion control. It is ERP job.

[inlinesix]

58 minutes ago, yishunite said:

My car is 2018 reg lol... even I scared by 2028 still cannot afford new COE or car

Change car when COE is "low" enough.

 

[13177]

Just now, Benarsenal said:

The issue is the thing they do don't make any sense, and doesn't help matters. Just lip service only.

Think this is the worst of the best thing that they can do for the COE thing. No one can think of even better ways liao. So just let it be the same 'forever' as long as it benefit the gahment. 😅

[Kopites]

12 minutes ago, Stratovarius said:

gahman dont do anything we kpkb. They gonna do something we still kpkb. lol. We should be call gen kpkb. 🤣

We complained because "doing something or not doing anything" has literally no impact on our traffic volume. This show Coe is obsolete redundant in today context. 

[yishunite]

Just now, inlinesix said:

Change car when COE is "low" enough.

 

Assuming it reaches "low enough" before 2028. I doubt it will as long as zero growth plus putting all those EVs into Cat A.

[Kopites]

2 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

COE is not for congestion control. It is ERP job.

ERP is for controling the movement of vehicles. Coe is to control the volume of vehicles on our road. 

[yishunite]

Just now, Kopites said:

ERP is for controling the movement of vehicles. Coe is to control the volume of vehicles on our road. 

And none of them controls for commercial usage (PHV/rental) which is the primary factor of traffic congestion

[inlinesix]

There could be a calculation error from 2020 to 2022

Car (Excl PHV) Population by Year

2020: 565,033

2021: 579,369

2022: 580,332

PHV Population by Year

2020: 71,147

2021: 67,990

2022: 72,632

[inlinesix]

6 minutes ago, Kopites said:

ERP is for controling the movement of vehicles. Coe is to control the volume of vehicles on our road. 

 

5 minutes ago, yishunite said:

And none of them controls for commercial usage (PHV/rental) which is the primary factor of traffic congestion

If govt got the balls, we should use rolling average speed vs Legal Speed (LS) at the yardstick:

-10km/h: Free

-11km/h to -20km/h: $10

-21km/h to -30km/h: $20

-31km/h to -40km/h: $30

-41km/h to -50km/h: $40

< -51km/h: $50

It is revised every month.  

[inlinesix]

17 minutes ago, yishunite said:

Assuming it reaches "low enough" before 2028. I doubt it will as long as zero growth plus putting all those EVs into Cat A.

Work on what you can control.

No point getting angry on things you can't control

[yishunite]

50 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

Work on what you can control.

No point getting angry on things you can't control

Nobody is angry. Just bopian

[Nf0rc3r]

1 hour ago, Mkl22 said:

majority of the coe revalidation is in CatA for 5years.

i would say that quite some of the 2016 COE renewed cars were also scrapped early in 2018-2019 as the coe dropped by almost half.

anyway 2023-2024 we should see almost 40k being scrapped from the 5year renewals and assuming 90% of the 8-10year old cars will be scrapped then total amount should be around 65-67K for 2years

Not if by that time we r using past 5 years average 😂

[Voodooman]

1 hour ago, Mkl22 said:

majority of the coe revalidation is in CatA for 5years.

i would say that quite some of the 2016 COE renewed cars were also scrapped early in 2018-2019 as the coe dropped by almost half.

anyway 2023-2024 we should see almost 40k being scrapped from the 5year renewals and assuming 90% of the 8-10year old cars will be scrapped then total amount should be around 65-67K for 2years

Good sharing. 

The last time A/B COE premium was at a low was in 2018/2019, there were around 80k new Cat A and B vehicle registrations per year.  

If you assume 25% COE revalidation (could be higher) and scrapping of all 15 and 20 years COE cars,  we will be looking at +/- 40k A+B quota in 2024/2025.  

There will be more COE in 2024/2025 as the bottom is now but it won't be the cheap COE everyone is expecting unless we have a deep recession or LTA scholars do a deep revamp of the COE regime. 

All else being constant, earliest bumper crop will be 2026/2027 (4 years from now).  

[Voodooman]

15 minutes ago, Nf0rc3r said:

Not if by that time we r using past 5 years average 😂

That means it won't be zero growth policy.

[Genes]

4 hours ago, Daniu82 said:

Adjust to benefit the government than benefit us. What’s the point? Waste time only. 

Since when the main motive is to benefit citizens? Always for their own benefit first.