LTA to adjust COE quota calculation again to reduce supply volatility

[Tohto]

4 hours ago, Lala81 said:

My car just turned 8 years old yesterday. Dunno if can see 50k COE in 2025.

 

Mine gone in 2026... now just hope I can still afford by then.. 

Gone are days that I paid $112k for a 240bhp SUV 😓

Edited January 20, 2023 by Tohto

[Mkl22]

33 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

Good sharing. 

The last time A/B COE premium was at a low was in 2018/2019, there were around 80k new Cat A and B vehicle registrations per year.  

If you assume 25% COE revalidation (could be higher) and scrapping of all 15 and 20 years COE cars,  we will be looking at +/- 40k A+B quota in 2024/2025.  

There will be more COE in 2024/2025 as the bottom is now but it won't be the cheap COE everyone is expecting unless we have a deep recession or LTA scholars do a deep revamp of the COE regime. 

All else being constant, earliest bumper crop will be 2026/2027 (4 years from now).  

if you see this data on new reg per year and compare vs renew coe for the year. you also can roughly plot  renewal rate. (ignore the total as it includes Cat C and D)

Edited January 20, 2023 by Mkl22

[Rayleigh]

2 hours ago, Nf0rc3r said:

unlikely to happen again. This is exactly what LTA is trying to stop where every 10 years there is cheap COEs and every 10 years there is crazy high coe. 

They have found the sweet spot where each COE can generate a consistent revenue of between 80k to 120k liao thru enlarging or reducing the moving averaging window liao. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Inlinefour]

5 hours ago, Kopites said:

More so like this image. 

 

you love squeeze neh neh bo 🙊🙉🙈 

 

zheng hu always make sure milk us dry 😁😁😁 

 

Happy new year😜😜😜

 

Huat ah 🤑🤑🤑

[Stratovarius]

3 hours ago, Kopites said:

We complained because "doing something or not doing anything" has literally no impact on our traffic volume. This show Coe is obsolete redundant in today context. 

Coe quota is fixed. So it is never there to control traffic but a way to tax people buying a car and use the precious land resource. 

No one likes the system but there is also no one can come up with a better solution. China's lottery system might be possible but that is unreliable as well.

[D3badge]

31 minutes ago, Stratovarius said:

Coe quota is fixed. So it is never there to control traffic but a way to tax people buying a car and use the precious land resource. 

No one likes the system but there is also no one can come up with a better solution. China's lottery system might be possible but that is unreliable as well.

So the rich have better luck? Own easily  10 cars via lottery system?

thus really unreliable 🤣🤣🤣

Edited January 20, 2023 by D3badge

[Comage]

48 minutes ago, Stratovarius said:

Coe quota is fixed. So it is never there to control traffic but a way to tax people buying a car and use the precious land resource. 

No one likes the system but there is also no one can come up with a better solution. China's lottery system might be possible but that is unreliable as well.

Why all the so-called experts here keep throwing up numbers and historical statistics analysis? These are all irrelevant actually. 

Touching the COE and the related systems is irrelevant. The only way to fix this COE problem is:

1. Clamp down hard on dealers offering 0% downpayment. Ensure all buyers of cars pay downpayment as per MAS rules. 

2. Disallow vehicles with PHV labels to cross the border into Malaysia under personal trips. 

If anybody can get angry or worked up at my suggestions above...then yes, my comments are meant for you. You shouldn't be owning a car. 

[Mancypher]

6 hours ago, Lala81 said:

I'm prepared to buy a 2018/2019 registered used car.

Either that or renew coe 2014 registered car for me. 

[Gnahp]

no more spikes and dips

just constantly high

[inlinesix]

1 hour ago, Stratovarius said:

Coe quota is fixed. So it is never there to control traffic but a way to tax people buying a car and use the precious land resource. 

No one likes the system but there is also no one can come up with a better solution. China's lottery system might be possible but that is unreliable as well.

Shanghai follows our system for VRN bidding.

Beijing uses Lottery system. 1 of my team members perpetually has no luck for bidding. Cars with Beijing VRN must be dereg after 10 years. A lot of ppl tries to beat the system with Hebei VRN. Unfortunately it can’t go inside 3rd Ring Road during weekday 

[Lala81]

59 minutes ago, Mancypher said:

Either that or renew coe 2014 registered car for me. 

If my car was cat A I would renew. Cat b I have to think a bit. Selling a Coe car is probably almost impossible as well I suppose (just average Joe cars, no nostalgia or special factor). 

[13177]

3 hours ago, Tohto said:

Mine gone in 2026... now just hope I can still afford by then.. 

Gone are days that I paid $112k for a 240bhp SUV 😓

Currently $112k dont think can get any new car? But back then you can get a SUV with this price. 

[Mancypher]

14 hours ago, Lala81 said:

If my car was cat A I would renew. Cat b I have to think a bit. Selling a Coe car is probably almost impossible as well I suppose (just average Joe cars, no nostalgia or special factor). 

For me I just need a car for point a to b. Mostly for sending and fetching my toddlers as well as to and fro work. Of course get parf car better if finance permit. 

[Volvobrick]

18 hours ago, Tohto said:

Mine gone in 2026... now just hope I can still afford by then.. 

Gone are days that I paid $112k for a 240bhp SUV 😓

By 2026 maybe you will say gone are the days you pay only 112k for COE.... 

[Volvobrick]

15 hours ago, Comage said:

Why all the so-called experts here keep throwing up numbers and historical statistics analysis? These are all irrelevant actually. 

Touching the COE and the related systems is irrelevant. The only way to fix this COE problem is:

1. Clamp down hard on dealers offering 0% downpayment. Ensure all buyers of cars pay downpayment as per MAS rules. 

2. Disallow vehicles with PHV labels to cross the border into Malaysia under personal trips. 

If anybody can get angry or worked up at my suggestions above...then yes, my comments are meant for you. You shouldn't be owning a car. 

What COE problem? From gahmen point of view, it's great revenues! 

Unless gahmen is change, COE system won't be changed to benefit you. Changed only to scr3w the car buyers. 

[13177]

22 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

What COE problem? From gahmen point of view, it's great revenues! 

Unless gahmen is change, COE system won't be changed to benefit you. Changed only to scr3w the car buyers. 

Aiya, not only COE benefit gahment lo. Most of the things here benefit them than the people.

[Voodooman]

19 hours ago, Mkl22 said:

if you see this data on new reg per year and compare vs renew coe for the year. you also can roughly plot  renewal rate. (ignore the total as it includes Cat C and D)

Have you analyze the renewal rate?  I used conservative 25% based on this report. 

Anyway, just have to look at the big numbers and the trend is clear, don't need to worry about simi PHV and zero upfront financing.  It is economics 101 and the data are all out there. 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/fewer-keeping-cars-beyond-10-years

[Mkl22]

1 hour ago, Voodooman said:

Have you analyze the renewal rate?  I used conservative 25% based on this report. 

Anyway, just have to look at the big numbers and the trend is clear, don't need to worry about simi PHV and zero upfront financing.  It is economics 101 and the data are all out there. 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/fewer-keeping-cars-beyond-10-years

 

Just a basic comparison.

the % renew is COE renewals for the year vs total new registrations.

I arbitrarily put an estimate average price for COE for the whole year, after scanning thru the PQP values. might not be too accurate, but i think good enough as an indicator.

Y-Axis is percentage and COE price in thousands.

If you look only at the % renewals, Cat A is curious.in 2016 there was a huge % of renewals even though the PQP Price was 50k+. i would think the bump in renewals was to support the big upswing in PHV demand. cat B seemed to follow the trend of lower COE prices and thus more renewals. Or it could also be that Cat A typically has a lower PARF, so to support the PHV demand for cars, CATA cars are more targeted compared with CatB.

renewal rates were also surprisingly high for 2017-2020. hitting almost 60% for catB in 2019. these are combined 5 and 10 year renewal figures.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Mkl22