Historical COE price (1990~2010)

[Luoxy]

googled around, couldn't find COE chart before 2007. I made my own using data from LTA website. (note that data after 2002 are 3 month moving average instead of individual bidding)

 

before plotting the chart, i thought it is normal for COE to be around 15k. to my surprise, the less then 20k COE from 2005~2010 seems to be an abnormality rather then a norm.

 

Just for sharing and give a bit of historical perspective view of COE price.

 

please say "thank TS" if you find this useful, it is not a fun job to do the chart :)

 

Edited December 9, 2010 by Luoxy

[13177]

U r saying the the normal avg price for COE shld hover ard $20-30K? Anything less than or more than tht is abnormal?

[Csnewbie]

Great job!You really did it.

 

Thanks a lot.

 

 

[Luoxy]

U r saying the the normal avg price for COE shld hover ard $20-30K? Anything less than or more than tht is abnormal?

 

it is not what i say, the data says. the mathematical average is 26.8K.

[Roh96]

So we have not surpass the previous peak, still room for further upside.

[Jpcc]

Thanks TS.

Just curious your COE is average of catA, B (and smaller cc in the earlier days) or monitoring specific cat only?

 

One suggestion is also plot the number of successful Bids against year. Correlate well with price agst year.

:)

 

[Vextan]

thanks TS you did a good job.

[Davekiat]

Need a mean average of 20 days, 50 days, 100 days and 200 days.

 

[Aiky76]

How about a multiple regression to find the major determinants of COE: quota number, population growth, GDP, household income etc? Isolating the factors may help predict where COE is headed in coming years.

[Passion]

TS,your graph is wrong.My car COE at $2 during Nov 08 bidding.How come yours around Jan 08 to Jan 09,no show of dipping?

[Luoxy]

Thanks TS.

Just curious your COE is average of catA, B (and smaller cc in the earlier days) or monitoring specific cat only?

 

One suggestion is also plot the number of successful Bids against year. Correlate well with price agst year.

:)

 

 

data before 05/1999 are for car (1000cc~1600cc) and after 05/1999 are for CAT A car (<1600cc)

 

[Luoxy]

TS,your graph is wrong.My car COE at $2 during Nov 08 bidding.How come yours around Jan 08 to Jan 09,no show of dipping?

 

congrats your good timing!!!!!!

 

please read my post again. i mentioned that "data after 2002 are 3 month moving average instead of individual bidding"

[Silver_blade]

Well done. Your data has confirmed my 'gut feel' that average COE prices for Cat A is around 24k-30k.

[Passion]

I see.So your explain the black line.Can explain the blue line?Why is it in tandem with the blank line?

[Luoxy]

I see.So your explain the black line.Can explain the blue line?Why is it in tandem with the blank line?

 

The blue line itself after 2002 is 3 month moving avg. (LTA data)

 

The black line is 3 moth moving avg of blue line. (added by me)

[Csnewbie]

General trend guess is COE moving upwards with economy.

 

And vice versa.No?

 

 

 

[Nf0rc3r]

Try add 1 year,3 year, and 5 years average lines to the graph. 3 mth alittle useless. COE doesn't change that quickly.

[Nf0rc3r]

where is the $2 coe in 2008/9? Din seem to register?