Historical COE price (1990~2010)

[Luoxy]

i've been thinking. in what scenario will COE plunge? cant think of any.

 

prophet LuoXY says: European financial crisis hit in next 1~2 years , Euro zone will break up into two. global recession again and COE will plunge along it.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Luoxy

[Andylau1177]

Steady lah bro!

[Csnewbie]

i've been thinking. in what scenario will COE plunge? cant think of any.

When the stock markets come crashing down.

 

Hit them if you want.

[Sllee1974]

thanks TS

[Zze121]

Cash flow of the AD determine the COE, less COE quota lead to high COE price.

Cash rich AD with high profit can affort to pump in more $$ if they receive big order.

Currently 2L above r the driving force, it will take some time to go down.

1.6 below just follow the trench.

 

COE price x nos COE = $100mil

Edited December 9, 2010 by Zze121

[Noel]

thanks TS. good job.

[XALmoN]

looking good there...

 

but frankly, 30k for a COE sounds just about fair.

[Clneosg]

While $110,500 in Nov 1994 in today's money taking into consideration 3% inflation per year is $177,320. So that means still not high yet if want to break Nov 1994 record in today's money @ $177,320 taking 3% inflation per yr till Nov 2010.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Clneosg

[Clneosg]

Jul 97 CAT A - $62,208

In today's money assume 3% inflation per yr - $94,095!

[Alechi]

googled around, couldn't find COE chart before 2007. I made my own using data from LTA website. (note that data after 2002 are 3 month moving average instead of individual bidding)

 

before plotting the chart, i thought it is normal for COE to be around 15k. to my surprise, the less then 20k COE from 2005~2010 seems to be an abnormality rather then a norm.

 

Just for sharing and give a bit of historical perspective view of COE price.

 

please say "thank TS" if you find this useful, it is not a fun job to do the chart :)

 

thanks ... based on your plot ... and making comparisons to uptrend in 1990 oonwards ... it means that the peak has yet to be reached and car buyers can only next get it cheap in like 10 - 15 yrs time??? Nobody is spared ...

[Kwchan]

highest COE ever for car was $110500 in Nov 1994

 

enough to buy a flat back in 1994

[Luoxy]

thanks ... based on your plot ... and making comparisons to uptrend in 1990 oonwards ... it means that the peak has yet to be reached and car buyers can only next get it cheap in like 10 - 15 yrs time??? Nobody is spared ...

 

past performance is no guarantee of future performance results.

 

history never repeat itself.

 

But it seems we won't see 15k COE any time soon.

[Saycheese78]

can someone add a fibonacci retrace chart and also MACD? Tx haha WELL DONE!

[Spanly]

It can't be all rosey & boom time for the next 10 yrs right???

 

I agreed it'll be a while before we can see COE softening down but 10-15 yrs is way too long... may not goes back to the days of <10k with the new quota formula... but retreating to the range of 20-30k should be likely when the next economy down turn comes along... when will that be I don't know but definitly can't be > 5-6 yrs.

[NightWind]

Thanks, very interesting. With the current COE at 40-60k (Cat A and B) how long do u rekon we have to wait before it reverts back to $20k range?

I say hopefully 2 years?

 

Find the historical highest and lowest coe from wikipedia

here it is

 

Historical record since May 1990

Previous Category

May 1990-Apr 1999 Current Category

May 1999 till now Highest Lowest Remarks

Cat 1 (1000cc and below) Cat A S$41,008 (Jul 1997) S$2 (Nov 2008) A major historical plunge due to lower than minimum bidders at S$2.

Cat 2 (1001cc - 16000cc) and taxi S$62,208 (Jul 1997)

Cat 3 (1601cc - 2000cc) Cat B S$83,500 (Dec 1994) S$50 (Jan 1998) A major historical plunge due to lower than minimum bidders at S$50.

Cat 4 (2001cc and above) S$110,500 (Dec 1994) S$800 (Apr 1991)

Cat 5 (Goods Vehicle and Bus) Cat C S$39,000 (Dec 1994) S$1 (Apr 1991) A minor historical plunge to S$1 due to high quota with minimum bid.

Cat 6 (Motorcycles) Cat D S$1,559 (Dec 2000) S$1 (May 1990, Jan-Feb 1994, Nov 2002 - Mar 2003) This is due to higher quota for motorcyles

Cat 7 (Open) Cat E S$95,986 (Dec 1994) S$998 (Mar 1991)

Cat 8 (Weekend Cars) Nil S$45,300 (Sep 1994) S$1,110 (Oct 1991) It was stopped on Sep 1994, the scheme was replaced by the Off-peak Car rebate

 

[Poren]

So when COE hit the highest, the Financial crisis will come. Is it? from the graph

[Townegg]

Thanks TS!

 

Looks like COE wont go back to 20k-30k level suddenly.. will take some time.

[Branteo]

prophet LuoXY says: European financial crisis hit in next 1~2 years , Euro zone will break up into two. global recession again and COE will plunge along it.

 

2 years later will be ideal!

 

haha ... my car will turn 5 years old then ... hopefully Cat B will drop to more decent levels.