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Time For a Change....Which one and How


Turtlekar
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(edited)

I guess I have been on side line for long time, and now seem like I need to make a change. Have been following MCF for donkey years, and a lot of good times. But it seem like I can't find any good comments so decide to start on a thread to hear from the forumers to see if I can get any ideas out to have a better idea.

 

My car is nearing it's COE lifespan, and I have a few options but given the scenario that the current COE is at a high price (it's ok and acceptable) but more importantly, what hurt is the 50% downpayment. (Don't give me nonsense of paying full) If I have the money, I will not even be bothered about asking already in the first place)

 

Car to be scrap: 2005 C180ML

 

Option 1: Scrap existing vehicle which have a reasonable high parf value close to $25k, and buy another car of high parf value

 

Option 2: Renew COE (I know this is crazy wasting my parf value away. But doing the maths, $25K +$85K is still cheaper than almost new car)

 

Option 3: Scrap car, and buy new car (The painful about this option is the 50% downpayment. This is not really putting money to good use, where our car is at depreciation and yet we are putting in so much cash upfront, and limit on the servicing years.

 

I'm currently looking at C180 (W204)/ B200/ BMW328i or Audi 1.8T but still rather indecisive which one is good. My current W203 has served me from day 1 till now...and minimal maintenance issue other than blown bulb.

 

Appreciate to hear some good feedback, and I welcome opinion. But for those we always claim full cash at current, I think you can reserve your comments as this will be just wasting the bandwidth if you are to put in such comments.

Edited by Turtlekar
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renew coe

 

continue to drive satki c180 for another 30 years

 

30 years later, use vintage c180 to drive grandson to school

 

kid becomes coolest kid in school

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option 2 def out if its me.

 

option 1 - high parf only applies to 2011 onward cars with high coe value but these cars are priced to the sky as well.

 

your car shd b able to get at least 30k now, depending on which month so tat may help on the 50% dp.

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For a Mercedes Benz and only for THAT reason alone, I would renew/extend it's COE for another 10 years ... but with a proviso - leave the 1996/7 to 2003/4 models out, since they are the worst of Merc's models (from a quality and reliability standpoint)! An example is the 4-eyed W210 Kompressor.

 

The above advice is based on the current $70-80K PQP remaining firm, if not rising.

 

Writing off the relatively high residual PARF would be still cheaper than buying a new car, where a large portion of your money will go to the COE, but you'd get a much lesser car, obviously of a different brand, from the overall quality standpoint.

 

But you'd need to do your math on the higher (1.5x) road tax and third-party-only insurance policy - which won't cover you for self-inflicted accidents!!

 

This advice will not apply to any other conti make - be it BMW, or Audi, as their cost of repair and maintenance is likely to be significantly higher, and their longer-term reliability questionable. And near-20-year-old Toyotas will literally start falling apart, especially the cheaper plastics ... though their simple and reliable engines are probably still good.

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Supersonic
(edited)

I am in the same boat as you. My current 2 litre Jap car COE will expires in mid-2015. I will probably scrap it and buy a 2008 or 2009 car as a replacement. I will consider renewing COE if the PQP drops to about $50k.

Edited by Loki
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I guess I have been on side line for long time, and now seem like I need to make a change. Have been following MCF for donkey years, and a lot of good times. But it seem like I can't find any good comments so decide to start on a thread to hear from the forumers to see if I can get any ideas out to have a better idea.

 

My car is nearing it's COE lifespan, and I have a few options but given the scenario that the current COE is at a high price (it's ok and acceptable) but more importantly, what hurt is the 50% downpayment. (Don't give me nonsense of paying full) If I have the money, I will not even be bothered about asking already in the first place)

 

Car to be scrap: 2005 C180ML

 

Option 1: Scrap existing vehicle which have a reasonable high parf value close to $25k, and buy another car of high parf value

 

Option 2: Renew COE (I know this is crazy wasting my parf value away. But doing the maths, $25K +$85K is still cheaper than almost new car)

 

Option 3: Scrap car, and buy new car (The painful about this option is the 50% downpayment. This is not really putting money to good use, where our car is at depreciation and yet we are putting in so much cash upfront, and limit on the servicing years.

 

I'm currently looking at C180 (W204)/ B200/ BMW328i or Audi 1.8T but still rather indecisive which one is good. My current W203 has served me from day 1 till now...and minimal maintenance issue other than blown bulb.

 

Appreciate to hear some good feedback, and I welcome opinion. But for those we always claim full cash at current, I think you can reserve your comments as this will be just wasting the bandwidth if you are to put in such comments.

you didn't mention what is your budget limit, but since BMW328i in your shopping list, you have minimum 100k cash in hand, then it should be very flexible for your option, from preimum conti to luxury Jap/Korean,

of course Scrap car, and buy new, don't think 50% downpayment should be painful for followings:

A6, BMW328i, C180, C250, IS/ES250,

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I'll buy a 07/08 car in the interim while waiting for the flood of COE from 05 onwards peaking till 08 to enter the market.

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I'll buy a 07/08 car in the interim while waiting for the flood of COE from 05 onwards peaking till 08 to enter the market.

 

But I heard that the LTA will no longer based on how many number of scrape car to calculate the next quota...

 

Now the quota is calculate based on every 3 month and the quota is varies, so as not to flood the COE quota...

 

I don know, my lead might be wrong...

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Turbocharged
(edited)

I'll buy a 07/08 car in the interim while waiting for the flood of COE from 05 onwards peaking till 08 to enter the market.

Few things to note:

- LTA will be keeping some COEs from here to have a more balanced approach for subsequent years

- flood of COE = many people also want to renew theirs too

- growing population to 6.9 million

 

I would say it wont drop much, maybe till 40 to 50k level

Edited by Dafansu
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Hypersonic

Share TS dilemma

 

mine expiring 3Q 15

 

prepared to go public until COE prices become saner

 

 

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(edited)

I'll buy a 07/08 car in the interim while waiting for the flood of COE from 05 onwards peaking till 08 to enter the market.

There WON'T be any "flood of COEs" expected in 2015-2018.

 

First, the MoT has already mentioned that output = input is no longer their strategy any more, but that the LTA will better manage COE releases in future, to avoid another 'feast and famine' situation

So perish any thought of COE premiums diving down to the good ol' $10-15K COE days!

 

Second, due to the current high $70-80K COE premia, more existing owners will be incentivized to renew their old cars' COEs. This will in turn, close the tap on COEs released from de-registrations over the next 3-4 years.

 

Third, with the growth in population toward 6.9m ... it now stands at 5.2-5.3m already (!), there are much more HNW families vying to buy new cars, as more of them come and settle here. They will be the ones that will snap COEs from the average-Joe Singaporean desiring to buy a new car.

 

Even expats on term-assignments given rental cars will compete for the same COEs.

Edited by Astrid
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There WON'T be any "flood of COEs" expected in 2015-2018.

 

First, the MoT has already mentioned that output = input is no longer their strategy any more, but that the LTA will better manage COE releases in future, to avoid another 'feast and famine' situation

So perish any thought of COE premiums diving down to the good ol' $10-15K COE days!

 

Second, due to the current high $70-80K COE premia, more existing owners will be incentivized to renew their old cars' COEs. This will in turn, close the tap on COEs released from de-registrations over the next 3-4 years.

 

Third, with the growth in population toward 6.9m ... it now stands at 5.2-5.3m already (!), there are much more HNW families vying to buy new cars, as more of them come and settle here. They will be the ones that will snap COEs from the average-Joe Singaporean desiring to buy a new car.

 

Even expats on term-assignments given rental cars will compete for the same COEs.

if coe premium really falls, lagi more wil renew coe. and the cycle goes.

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Supercharged

I am in the same boat as you. My current 2 litre Jap car COE will expires in mid-2015. I will probably scrap it and buy a 2008 or 2009 car as a replacement. I will consider renewing COE if the PQP drops to about $50k.

if you have 50k upfront for COE renewal, why not top up more to get a new car?

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Thanks for all the feedback. It is indeed quite a difficult situation for all the car owners. I'm no top earner, but was able to afford my merc back then.

 

It is indeed a very reliable car with min. maintenance, but looking at the trending now, it also kind of put me off. I have actually just replaced my B200 as well for the new A200 when it just came out. And yes, I was hit by the new OMV ruling and 50% downpayment. Now 2nd round, it's not making any senses at all.

 

Market will never be flooded with COE from 2015-16 onwards, that's for sure as they are limiting the growth to induce more revenue. Now putting bhp on limit for Cat A and B makes it more absurd rather than in nominal growth....

 

Appreciate on all the feedback, I guess a lot are in the same shoes as well....

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(edited)

Christopher Tan's lengthy analysis may be useful for some of you.

 

 

http://ride.asiaone.com/news/general/story/best-time-buy-car

 

The best time to buy a car

Christopher Tan | The Straits Times | Friday, Jan 17, 2014

 

20130912_car_buying_singapore_ride_st.jp
Is it a good time to buy a car now?

If I got a dollar for each time I am asked that question (or variations of it), I would be happily retired, sitting by the beach and staring into the horizon with a cold beer in hand.

 

Not behind the keyboard, gazing at the monitor, with cold sweat forming on my brow as yet another deadline looms.

 

But since I am here, and since this is the start of another new year - with changes to the COE system that could have interesting outcomes - let me address that question.

With more than one answer.

 

Generally speaking, now is still not an ideal time to buy a new car.

COE prices are expected to remain high in the first half of the year, even if Category A premiums are showing signs of softening.

 

But if you are in dire need of a car - say, your current car is expiring in two weeks' time or your wife is expecting twins and threatens divorce if you don't get a car, pronto - go buy a used car.

Preferably, get a cheap old car.

 

Better still, a cheap old car bought directly from its owner, not a dealer.

This way, you get a car with minimal depreciation, which should tide you over till COE prices return to saner levels.

This should happen between next year and 2018.

This is because COE supply will start to expand from the second half of this year, and peak around 2016.

Even if the Government decides to "keep" some certificates from these bountiful years for the next dry spell (2019-2023) - say, 20 per cent - the supplies next year and in 2016 and 2017 should still be fairly sizeable.

It has hinted strongly that it will do this to flatten a supply pattern that see-saws more than Christian Bale's waistline.

But it has not indicated when and by how much.

Let's hope good sense prevails and the "savings" are staggered and measured.

Now, the "good years" recommendation above applies to folks who are hoping for COE prices to fall by 40 to 60 per cent.

Those among you who are happy with merely a 10 or 20 per cent drop in prices won't have to wait as long.

Especially if you are shopping for a Category A car.

A new engine power cap for Cat A cars that kicks in from next month will move several premium cars out of the category.

This should relieve bidding pressure and bring premiums down.

Simple demand and supply. But already, the market has begun adjusting to this change.

A number of European brands have introduced diesel models - which typically produce less horsepower than petrol equivalents - to maintain their presence in Category A.

However, these are not expected to be hugely popular.

So, Cat A premiums should dip from the second half - unless BMW and Mercedes-Benz return with models that produce no more than 130bhp in the next few weeks (which is unlikely in the near term).

The operative words are "dip" and "second half", because COE supply will continue to be constricted in the first half, with the probability of growth only in the second half.

No such luck if you are eyeing bigger cars.

With the power cap, several cars will move from Cat A to B.

This will inevitably put upward pressure on premiums here.

 

More so when a slew of sizzling new models are expected from the likes of Mercedes, BMW and Porsche this year.

So, if you are bent on having a bigger car, you should wait till next year, at least.

Of course, this does not apply if you belong to a group of consumers who are flush with cash the way teenagers are flush with tweets.

If that is the case, "what" to buy is probably more relevant than "when" to buy.

And the choices are bewildering these days, with luxury and premium marques rolling out so many models each year that even their own communications managers are befuddled by specifications.

For mere mortals who work within more modest budgets, making a series of untimely automotive purchases could eventually translate to a $500,000 difference in the retirement fund.

Which, understandably, leads many to pose the mundane question that started this article.

If the answers are still unclear, here are some bite-size takeaways for you (bejewelled company excluded):

If you are looking to buy a big car, do so between next year and 2017.

If you are looking to buy a small car (defined as no bigger than 1,600cc and with engine power no more than 130bhp), you can start shopping from mid-year.

The best year to buy any car should be 2016.

If you have to get a car urgently, pick up a used one - an older, cheaper model with a couple of years left on its COE.

Now cut this out and paste it on your fridge door, or copy it onto your desktop. Because the next time you ask, I will be charging.

Edited by Jellandross
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Supersonic

if you have 50k upfront for COE renewal, why not top up more to get a new car?

 

With $50k COE, and scrap value of only about $11k, my depreciation will be only $6k per year. My car is pretty low mileage, at about 110,000 km now when it is already 9 years old, still very good condition, trouble-free. I service it every 6 months, without fail although I only clock about 5000 km per half year.

 

Get new car means a lot higher depreciation. Even with extra road tax of 50%, it's only an additional $600 per year after the 5th year of renewed COE.

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Supersonic

TS's car coe only expire in 2015. now start to plan liao?!

 

Nowadays really difficult to make decision. If buy resale, most car over-priced, as many resale car 5-6 year old still need to pay $55K or more! If buy new car, downpayment is a killer, as where to find 50-60K cash?

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