Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Darryn]

the current claw back will end in Jan 2015.

during the recent announcement last mth, frm Feb 2015:

a) no new claw back (yet).

b) growth reduced to 0.25%.

c) contribution to Cat E reduced frm 15% to 10%.

 

see post #2 for the COE Quota projection for Feb-Apr 2015.

I'm predicting some form of clawback to calm the peaks and troughs in the market.

 

Also wouldn't be surprised to see a new rule introduced to stop early de-registration of high COE cars (maybe some rule like Private house to HDB - if dergister a less than 3 years car must wait 2 years before can bid new COE)

 

For sure, many will buy. Then there are new owners too (new graduates, PR, new citizens, new families etc). Working population is about double 10 years ago.

Question is at what price point.

If they can't afford at 60k COE, they will buy 2nd hand or renew or wait. When COE drops to 50k, you get an even larger pool of willing buyers. At 40k, lagi larger.

With so many willing to buy, how far can it drop?

 

With supply lagging demand, at any one time, total car population actually decreases (COE recycled into system is less than impending cars to be scrapped). Some poor chaps are simply forced off the market. Even more are forever waiting at the sidelines.

 

How low can COEs go in this kind of scenario?

Thing is ---

 

With supply lagging demand - at some point this will "flip" and demand will start lagging supply....

 

I also think it's not only affordability, but also willingness to pay

 

To give a fair comparison, must also put in other indicators e.g. Population to COE ratio. Just purely looking at supply is too simplistic

 

There are many many things that can be added in ---

 

It could also be number of drivers' licenses

Some sort of formula for convenience of Public transport

etc etc...

 

While basic, this is at least much much better than nothing

 

Must also factor in the change in liquidity, people's attitudes to large upfront, change in ARF rules....

[Enye]

the more widely this analysis is publicized

 

the more pent up demand will build

 

this one can confirm

 

[yo2020]

the more widely this analysis is publicized

the more pent up demand will build

this one can confirm

ya, likely more/some will delay to buy... this i understand as i was once half-hearted to share... but i numbers, i wanted to share numbers!!

[Forte3737]

ya, likely more/some will delay to buy... this i understand as i was once half-hearted to share... but i numbers, i wanted to share numbers!!

 

Your stats provide hope for those who cannot afford a new car

[Enye]

ya, likely more/some will delay to buy... this i understand as i was once half-hearted to share... but i numbers, i wanted to share numbers!!

 

i hope you realize that you are perpetuating the boom bust cycle

 

[Caravan]

With supply lagging demand - at some point this will "flip" and demand will start lagging supply....

 

This will only happen from 2017 onwards. 2007 was the peak in COE supply. Then it dropped every year after that. This is not taking into account the explosion in workforce (and hence higher demand) we had in recent years.

 

From now till then, supply lagging all the way. E.g. the 105713 cars to be scrapped will be looking at the 56358 COEs being recycled, broadly speaking. (I know LTA has shortened to 3 months the recycling, but the idea is still the same.)

 

[yo2020]

As promised, below r updates based on Nov's data jz released by LTA.

 

1) Both the number of dereg for Cat A and Cat B for Nov r consistent with the Oct's. No surge, but that's good enuf.

[yo2020]

2) And these are the Projected COE Quota for Feb-Apr 2015 based on LTA's new formulae from Feb 2015:
Cat A: Up 39%
Cat B: Up 19%

 

Note: The projected quota for Cat C & E shall be less accurate compared to other Cats due to a few factors.

[Forte3737]

Summary for Yr 2014

 

 

http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2014/12/round-up-of-certificate-of-entitlement-in-2014/

[Mustank]

2) And these are the Projected COE Quota for Feb-Apr 2015 based on LTA's new formulae from Feb 2015:

Cat A: Up 39%

Cat B: Up 19%

 

Note: The projected quota for Cat C & E shall be less accurate compared to other Cats due to a few factors.

Wah!!! Yoyo you really very on the ball

[yo2020]

Wah!!! Yoyo you really very on the ball

thx, but hardly any1 noticed until today... that's 1 week later.

Edited December 18, 2014 by yo2020

[Mustank]

thx, but hardly every1 noticed until today... 1 week later.

 

How come your table say cat c one very hard to estimate?

[yo2020]

How come your table say cat c one very hard to estimate?

the red r unknown figures. the unknown bold red figures can b quite big n swing a lot to the result.

Cat C is the less accurate as monthly Early Turnover Scheme figures r not available n the figure can b big.

Taxi's figures r not so bad as like Cat A & B, only Dec figures r not known yet.

[Mustank]

the red r unknown figures. the unknown bold red figures can b quite big n swing a lot to the result.

Cat C is the less accurate as monthly Early Turnover Scheme figures r not available n the figure can b big.

Taxi's figures r not so bad as like Cat A & B, only Dec figures r not known yet.

The early turn over scheme Issit surrender old truck body but buy new truck body, then use old coe lifespan?

[yo2020]

The early turn over scheme Issit surrender old truck body but buy new truck body, then use old coe lifespan?

yes, something like new 10 yrs coe + old coe left + bonus coe. there is a separate thread on this. ;)

Edited December 18, 2014 by yo2020

[yo2020]

thank you... now i m on 4th Gear!!!!

[Mustank]

yes, something like new 10 yrs coe + old coe left + bonus coe. there is a separate thread on this. ;)

Whoa! Got bonus coe!!!

[Cluboxed]

it is still unclear on how many will LTA release back into the system in 2015...