Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Wt_know]

even release all back still not enough coe due to increase of population

in 2005, population is 4.27M ... how many people buy car in 2005

fast forward 10 years those who bought in 2005 need to re-buy in 2015

in 2015, population is 5.5M (still increasing, slowly only) ...

with additional 1.3M people, how many new buyers will fight with former buyers in 2005 that need to re-buy a car

 

assuming the population figure exclude FT with employment pass (non PR) ...

those well paid FT also add pressure to coe and if their spouse also need a car ... then 1 FT = 2 cars ... hehe

 

it is still unclear on how many will LTA release back into the system in 2015.

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Wt_know

[Mustank]

even release all back still not enough coe due to increase of population

in 2005, population is 4.27M ... how many people buy car in 2005

fast forward 10 years those who bought in 2005 need to re-buy in 2015

in 2015, population is 5.5M (still increasing, slowly only) ...

with additional 1.3M people, how many new buyers will fight with former buyers in 2005 that need to re-buy a car

 

assuming the population figure exclude FT with employment pass (non PR) ...

those well paid FT also add pressure to coe and if their spouse also need a car ... then 1 FT = 2 cars ... hehe

 

 

Coe is a form of population tax

[Vinceng]

COE prices will stay at current levels unless there is a severe recession and foreign talents got to pack their bags and return home.

 

Despite the increased number of cars to be scraped from next yr, COE prices will never drop for the simple reason that existing car owners will replace their cars, plus the influx of foreign talents to hit 6.9 million population in the coming yrs.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Vinceng

[Wt_know]

6.9M population is inevitable ... perhaps even hitting 10M

look at the oversupply of housing coming online from 2015-2017 (3 years)

need people to fill up these empty pigeon holes

besides, govt already got plan to develop new estate Bidadari, Paya Lebar and Sungei Tengah

each estate can house at least another 250-300k people?

 

COE prices will stay at current levels unless there is a severe recession and foreign talents got to pack their bags and return home.

Despite the increased number of cars to be scraped from next yr, COE prices will never drop for the simple reason that existing car owners will replace their cars, plus the influx of foreign talents to hit 6.9 million population in the coming yrs.

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Wt_know

[Volvobrick]

Coe is a form of population tax

 

人头税 ！

[Vvix]

Any idea the estimated monthly COE quota starting May 2015 and Aug 2015 will be?

[yo2020]

Any idea the estimated monthly COE quota starting May 2015 and Aug 2015 will be?

it will b more than Feb-Apr 2015. for May-Jul 2015, i m looking at at least another 20% more.

[yo2020]

2) And these are the Projected COE Quota for Feb-Apr 2015 based on LTA's new formulae from Feb 2015:

Cat A: Up 39%

Cat B: Up 19%

 

Note: The projected quota for Cat C & E shall be less accurate compared to other Cats due to a few factors.

 

still no news frm LTA yet, but this shld b the week LTA will announce the COE Quota for the next quarter.

pretty sure there were more dereg in Dec n i adjusted the Cat A&B figures as shown below.

we are looking at 40% more Cat A n 20% more Cat B. but the increase in Cat B may b marred by the decrease in Cat E.

 

[Powxus]

 

still no news frm LTA yet, but this shld b the week LTA will announce the COE Quota for the next quarter.

pretty sure there were more dereg in Dec n i adjusted the Cat A&B figures as shown below.

we are looking at 40% more Cat A n 20% more Cat B. but the increase in Cat B may b marred by the decrease in Cat E.

 

 

Cat B is likely to increase because more cars are reclassified into Cat B plus cut in Open Cat quota. This is really what the gov wants to make Cat A more affordable for the general public.

[Forte3737]

 

still no news frm LTA yet, but this shld b the week LTA will announce the COE Quota for the next quarter.

pretty sure there were more dereg in Dec n i adjusted the Cat A&B figures as shown below.

we are looking at 40% more Cat A n 20% more Cat B. but the increase in Cat B may b marred by the decrease in Cat E.

 

Yep.but at what price will u buy a car?

[Jwee85]

as a rider, I am sadden by the quota formula, that seems to reduce the motorcycle quote by -9.1%.

At this reduction rate, the motorcycle population is in perpetual decline.

Unless people are crazy enough to use Cat.E to register for motorcycles.

 

What is so wrong with motorcycles that LTA haa to linked it to cars, and formulate the 10% toward Cat.E??? Crazy logic will tell that the outcome will be Motorcycle will become extinct some time down the road.

I imaginled, When only 100 quotas for motorcycle quota are up for bidding per month, it might cost $50,000 per COE.

Its unfair to have this formula now, and make riders unwittingly pay a high price for it currently.

Surely LTA is not under the impression that motorcycle contrubuted to traffic jams as much as a car?

In this COE formular case, it is indeed True that LTA considers one motorcycle = one car.

Which to me is not very equitable.

[F355]

as a rider, I am sadden by the quota formula, that seems to reduce the motorcycle quote by -9.1%.

At this reduction rate, the motorcycle population is in perpetual decline.

Unless people are crazy enough to use Cat.E to register for motorcycles.

 

What is so wrong with motorcycles that LTA haa to linked it to cars, and formulate the 10% toward Cat.E??? Crazy logic will tell that the outcome will be Motorcycle will become extinct some time down the road.

I imaginled, When only 100 quotas for motorcycle quota are up for bidding per month, it might cost $50,000 per COE.

Its unfair to have this formula now, and make riders unwittingly pay a high price for it currently.

Surely LTA is not under the impression that motorcycle contrubuted to traffic jams as much as a car?

In this COE formular case, it is indeed True that LTA considers one motorcycle = one car.

Which to me is not very equitable.

 

Those who use Cat E to register motorbikes are not crazy ; but smart dealers . It happened 20 years ago , Open Cat COE at 100+k and then plummeted at next bidding . Dealers use it to register a bike , then scrap the bike the next day , and claim back the COE. I laughed so hard back then seeing LTA got slap in the face . Of course , they change rules after that la.

 

As for the road space that a motorbike takes , in transportation engineering studies of traffic volume and traffic density, a motorbike is assigned a PCU ( Passenger Car Unit ) of 0.6 , which means that it takes up 60% space that a passenger car would take . That is valid on open roads with normal traffic where the bike does not straddle between lanes. In that scenario , it would be arguable that a bike should pay 60% of a car's COE , in terms of road space utilisation.

 

In reality, especially in town areas , the PCU for bike is much less as they are straddling ( when they are not supposed to ) , and since currently they are paying less than 10% of a cars COE , I think its fair la.

[Powxus]

I believe bidding for Cat B always exceeds quota by more than 40%. Cat A might have more impact ? Additional ARF and CEVS taxes not creating any impact on large cars. People will continue to buy them.

 

 

 

There are more car models in Cat B than Cat A so naturally demand for Cat B will be higher especially if you are looking at certain model. You just need Merc or BMW to come up with new models to push up the demand. So I do not expect Cat B to fall a lot even with increase in COE quota.

[Enye]

just keep in mind the differences between the coming coe quota tsunami and the previous one when you read this data

 

previous

govt encouraged car ownership

increase in quota unexpected by car buyers

 

current

govt encouraging public transport

increase in quota expected by car buyers

 

 

Edited January 13, 2015 by Enye

[Little_prince]

 

Cheapest option will always to renew COE if the car is in good condition. Second hand car depreciation is close to a new car with the only advantage of lower upfront cash.

but you pay for pqp also cannot take loan.

 

so you pay the 60-70k cash for the coe also no advantage. infact more cash upfront

as a rider, I am sadden by the quota formula, that seems to reduce the motorcycle quote by -9.1%.

At this reduction rate, the motorcycle population is in perpetual decline.

Unless people are crazy enough to use Cat.E to register for motorcycles.

 

What is so wrong with motorcycles that LTA haa to linked it to cars, and formulate the 10% toward Cat.E??? Crazy logic will tell that the outcome will be Motorcycle will become extinct some time down the road.

I imaginled, When only 100 quotas for motorcycle quota are up for bidding per month, it might cost $50,000 per COE.

Its unfair to have this formula now, and make riders unwittingly pay a high price for it currently.

Surely LTA is not under the impression that motorcycle contrubuted to traffic jams as much as a car?

In this COE formular case, it is indeed True that LTA considers one motorcycle = one car.

Which to me is not very equitable.

 

1. noise.

2. dangerous riding ( stradling 2 lanes, cut in and out of traffic, speeding etc)

 

no big loss to ban bikes in sg.

[Forte3737]

Less bikes, lower fatality rate

[Handsomedi]

Less bikes, lower fatality rate

 

less fatality rate, in returns will help to increase rate of fertility cause more humans around to produce more baby= Good for Singapore!

[flashbang]

There is no incentive to increase motorcycle COEs. You only pay 4k. Sell 1 car COE for 60k, equivalent to selling 15 motorcycle COEs liao.

 

If 1 motorcycle = 0.6 cars, reduce 2 motorcycle quota and sell 1 car, earn extra 56k.