COE bidding - 1st round of December 2018

[No_worries]

It is Dec 2018 now, let’s see if the Cat A and B COE can crash to just a few thousand dollars as we have seen in early 2009. Perhaps the cycle repeats every 10 years .

[Mkl22]

Well it’s seems like those who bought in April 2009 will catch the next low again

[Heartbreakid]

Cat B seems more or less stable at around $30k for months now while Cat A is going down. Looking good.

[assiak71]

Motorshow occurs 1 day after jan 1st bidding. Will they price the motorshow price only after the bidding results are out? Or it will be decided before that?

 

The point of the question is, when is better:

- after dec 2nd bidding

- motorshow which is 1 day after jan 1st bidding

 

Although it is 3 weeks to jan 1st bidding, people may wait for motorshow and hence this 3 weeks may be effectively like 2 weeks? Also motorshow may have some slight discount and more freebies. In this case motorshow may be better.

 

On the other hand, if the 3 weeks gap leads to more bidders in jan 1st bidding and an increase in coe, will motorshow price also increase? In this case dec 2nd bidding may be better.

 

Now if motorshow price is not affected by jan 1st bidding results and is based on dec 2nd bidding, then in this case motorshow is better?

 

Hope experienced experts can advice. Thanks.

[Civicblade]

COE prices will likely go up from Jan 2019. The next bidding result could be the lowest in years to come. 

 

My analysis:

1) Zero car growth. A new COE can only be available for bidding if another COE is de-registered. 

 

2) Assuming (unless some LTA insider can confirm or debunk) COE available closely follows the COE due for de-registration in the preceding 10 year and 3 months, if you look at the number of COEs available in the year 2009, there is a big reduction from 2008 to 2009. The anomaly of super low COE prices in 2009 is due to the global financial crisis that hits Singapore badly. For those who are too young to know, Singapore went into recession in 2009. The government had to help companies out by paying 15% of wages. There is general panic in the financial and lending market leading to Singaporeans cutting back on car purchase. 

 

3) Year end bonus effect. The year end bonus doesn't deposit into the employee's bank account until the last week of the year or the first week of the new year. 2018 is a good year for many companies in Singapore and public employees do get 1month on top of AWS. That is a total of two months and if it is a dual income household (husband and wife), that is 4 months x $5000 making a good deposit. 

 

4) The best selling small sedan (small in overseas classification), the Hyundai Elantra has run out and no Elantra was on sale. The new Avante launch in January will likely draw interest and actual purchases given its value for money. Once Avante fills the CAT A void, COE will likely go higher. 

 

5) Singapore's economy is humming along well. 2018 growth is around 3.5-3.8% and coupled with year end bonuses this should keep potential car buyer confidence in purchasing in 2019. 

 

6) Hybrids. Almost all hybrids, even the humble Fit Hybrid requires a CAT B COE. CAT B COE number has reduced slightly for Nov-Jan and will continue to reduce based on COE recycling numbers. The consistently high fuel prices (theory about peak oil and OPEC cartel control) and almost to be certain further fuel price increase will push more buyers to look at hybrids. CAT B has inherently higher demand due to hybrids and also the way Singaporean treat cars, not just as a transport but also a status symbol. The fall in COE prices mainly happens in CAT A. 

 

The above is just my take on things it will be interesting to see how this unfolds. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by Civicblade

[Ct3833]

Motorshow occurs 1 day after jan 1st bidding. Will they price the motorshow price only after the bidding results are out? Or it will be decided before that?

 

The point of the question is, when is better:

- after dec 2nd bidding

- motorshow which is 1 day after jan 1st bidding

 

Although it is 3 weeks to jan 1st bidding, people may wait for motorshow and hence this 3 weeks may be effectively like 2 weeks? Also motorshow may have some slight discount and more freebies. In this case motorshow may be better.

 

On the other hand, if the 3 weeks gap leads to more bidders in jan 1st bidding and an increase in coe, will motorshow price also increase? In this case dec 2nd bidding may be better.

 

Now if motorshow price is not affected by jan 1st bidding results and is based on dec 2nd bidding, then in this case motorshow is better?

 

Hope experienced experts can advice. Thanks.

COE and car price are all time low since 2010, it wont go much lower from this level, there is no need to crack your head so much, just buy if you need a car.

[assiak71]

Interesting point on the elantra effect. So if avante launches before dec 2nd bidding, buy before 2nd bidding?

[Carlson55]

COE and car price are all time low since 2010, it wont go much lower from this level, there is no need to crack your head so much, just buy if you need a car.

I like. Buy whenever you need it and can afford.

[assiak71]

Prediction for jan 1st bidding? Will the wait for motorshow cause a quiet 3 weeks and hence a drop on jan 1st bidding, leading to cheap (or even cheaper) motorshow price?

[Dafansu]

COE prices will likely go up from Jan 2019. The next bidding result could be the lowest in years to come. 

 

My analysis:

1) Zero car growth. A new COE can only be available for bidding if another COE is de-registered. 

 

2) Assuming (unless some LTA insider can confirm or debunk) COE available closely follows the COE due for de-registration in the preceding 10 year and 3 months, if you look at the number of COEs available in the year 2009, there is a big reduction from 2008 to 2009. The anomaly of super low COE prices in 2009 is due to the global financial crisis that hits Singapore badly. For those who are too young to know, Singapore went into recession in 2009. The government had to help companies out by paying 15% of wages. There is general panic in the financial and lending market leading to Singaporeans cutting back on car purchase. 

 

3) Year end bonus effect. The year end bonus doesn't deposit into the employee's bank account until the last week of the year or the first week of the new year. 2018 is a good year for many companies in Singapore and public employees do get 1month on top of AWS. That is a total of two months and if it is a dual income household (husband and wife), that is 4 months x $5000 making a good deposit. 

 

4) The best selling small sedan (small in overseas classification), the Hyundai Elantra has run out and no Elantra was on sale. The new Avante launch in January will likely draw interest and actual purchases given its value for money. Once Avante fills the CAT A void, COE will likely go higher. 

 

5) Singapore's economy is humming along well. 2018 growth is around 3.5-3.8% and coupled with year end bonuses this should keep potential car buyer confidence in purchasing in 2019. 

 

6) Hybrids. Almost all hybrids, even the humble Fit Hybrid requires a CAT B COE. CAT B COE number has reduced slightly for Nov-Jan and will continue to reduce based on COE recycling numbers. The consistently high fuel prices (theory about peak oil and OPEC cartel control) and almost to be certain further fuel price increase will push more buyers to look at hybrids. CAT B has inherently higher demand due to hybrids and also the way Singaporean treat cars, not just as a transport but also a status symbol. The fall in COE prices mainly happens in CAT A. 

 

The above is just my take on things it will be interesting to see how this unfolds. 

 

 

My analysis just one sentence, COE will continue to filter down (with some little ups in between) till at least mid of next year. After that I'll advise again.    

Edited December 5, 2018 by Dafansu

[awhtc]

A lot of owners are taking delivery of new cars now.

 

So next quarter Feb-Apr 2019 quota for Cat A is likely to be sustained.

 

The price bottom for Cat A is around early next year around $20k. Cat B is likely to hover around $30k.

[yishunite]

Cat A COE is not going up anytime soon until (1) quota supply constricts and (2) GoJek starts buying fleet. We'll get advance notice of both factors. So until then downdowndown!*

[Ct3833]

My analysis just one sentence, COE will continue to filter down (with some little ups in between) till at least mid of next year. After that I'll advise again.

You are the oracle of the COE so far, better take your advice. Haha.

[RogerNg_185295]

My analysis just one sentence, COE will continue to filter down (with some little ups in between) till at least mid of next year. After that I'll advise again.

After mid 2019, it's supposed to rise?

[Scion]

mai kia mai kai

 

COE no crash

 

only US stock markets crashed last night

[Ct3833]

A lot of owners are taking delivery of new cars now.

 

So next quarter Feb-Apr 2019 quota for Cat A is likely to be sustained.

 

The price bottom for Cat A is around early next year around $20k. Cat B is likely to hover around $30k.

Though the amount of COE may be lesser than 2 years ago, but most of the new cars then were owned by LCR and sub rented to uber drivers, but since year onwards nearly all the new cars are own by genuine owners. Edited December 5, 2018 by Ct3833

[13177]

hope Elantra price will be below 70k

No more selling elantra liao.

[assiak71]

After mid 2019, it's supposed to rise?

Prediction. Now and feb-apr is the time. May-jul quota shrink a bit. Aug onwards missed the boat

 

Unless market crash, financial crisis, etc

Cat A COE is not going up anytime soon until (1) quota supply constricts and (2) GoJek starts buying fleet. We'll get advance notice of both factors. So until then downdowndown!*ð

 

*subject to a few deadcat bounces

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/weak-consumer-sentiment-causes-coes-to-end-mostly-lower

Here says gojek already affecting cat b

Edited December 5, 2018 by assiak71