Mann123 4th Gear December 24, 2018 Share December 24, 2018 I agreed on most of your view. But you are still cherry pick on certain year for economy aspect. NPNT. To back up your statement, please provide the year to year graph tread base on coe price vs economy study to determine whether is economy a minor or insignificant factor. It can be minor but not insignificant for sure. However, I strongly feel quota is the main deciding factor due to multi-millionaire people density in Singapore. Look how private property going up even after govt introduce additional 5% ABSD. Because rich can still afford/buy even economy weak + govt additional tax. Well, this is my understanding as I mentioned in my previous post also and others point of view may differ. ↡ Advertisement 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear December 24, 2018 Share December 24, 2018 Is there coe bidding on the week of 4 feb? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
awhtc 6th Gear December 24, 2018 Share December 24, 2018 It can be minor but not insignificant for sure. However, I strongly feel quota is the main deciding factor due to multi-millionaire people density in Singapore. Look how private property going up even after govt introduce additional 5% ABSD. Because rich can still afford/buy even economy weak + govt additional tax. Well, this is my understanding as I mentioned in my previous post also and others point of view may differ. The cash rich property buyers who earn from enbloc are declining fast. Property sales are quite slow now. Quota (supply) and economy work (demand) hand in hand to determine the market price. My take is prices will be quite flat +/-2k up to mid of next year, which is similar to our stock market index that generally leads economy by about half a year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear December 27, 2018 Share December 27, 2018 Cat A coe may go up because - 3 weeks gap - avante effect (no increase in price although coe went up) Coe may go down or not increase because - coe just went up - buyers waiting for motorshow - ADs wanting to maintain attractive pricing for motorshow So which is it... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
awhtc 6th Gear December 27, 2018 Share December 27, 2018 With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear December 27, 2018 Share December 27, 2018 With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly.From what i see, it is hyundai and kia supporting next round. Kia seems to be suppressing their cerato price due to avante. Toyota and honda prices dont look attractive currently after latest hike. Mazda 3 no more. So what are your predictions for jan 1st bidding? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
awhtc 6th Gear December 28, 2018 Share December 28, 2018 From what i see, it is hyundai and kia supporting next round. Kia seems to be suppressing their cerato price due to avante. Toyota and honda prices dont look attractive currently after latest hike. Mazda 3 no more. So what are your predictions for jan 1st bidding? 3 weeks break between COE biddings normally means a pent-up demand for COEs. There is also a backlog of unsuccessful bids in the 2nd bidding of December. Furthermore, many buyers should be pressing their SEs to bid higher and deliver the car in time for Chinese New Year. So overall I expect a slight increase. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear December 28, 2018 Share December 28, 2018 (edited) 3 weeks break between COE biddings normally means a pent-up demand for COEs. There is also a backlog of unsuccessful bids in the 2nd bidding of December. Furthermore, many buyers should be pressing their SEs to bid higher and deliver the car in time for Chinese New Year. So overall I expect a slight increase.3 weeks - agree, usually increase. But this time prices just increased, and toyota and honda prices are not attractive relative to when coe was 25k. Those who want toyota or honda would have already bought in previous round or wait it out till prices drop 1-2k. E.g. just look at vios E. Coe 25k - 73k Coe 23.5k - 70k Coe 25.5k - 74k <- would potential buyers be keen or put off? This leaves hyundai and kia (mazda 3 no more). Their prices remained despite coe increase (kia just upped 1k though), probably due to avante vs cerato competiton. Cny - dont quite agree as it does not apply to all ADs. I think it is more hyundai and kia again which has the cny effect. Backlogs - look at nov 2nd bidding. There were supposed to be backlogs from 1st bidding (cars@expo) but coe dropped from 28k to 25k. So overall, with 3 weeks gap and what i guess is less new bookings for toyota, honda and mazda but more bookings for hyundai and kia, coe remains about the same - 25k to 26k. Of course i could be very wrong and 3 weeks just causes it to go even higher. As for jan 2nd bidding, it depends on how ADs price their motorshow promo. Edited December 28, 2018 by assiak71 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
awhtc 6th Gear December 29, 2018 Share December 29, 2018 Don't be so serious. Treat it as a guessing game for the fun of it if you are not vested. I'm likely to renew COE in end Feb or end March depending on the movement, so I'm vested. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scholesy 4th Gear December 29, 2018 Share December 29, 2018 3 weeks - agree, usually increase. But this time prices just increased, and toyota and honda prices are not attractive relative to when coe was 25k. Those who want toyota or honda would have already bought in previous round or wait it out till prices drop 1-2k. E.g. just look at vios E. Coe 25k - 73k Coe 23.5k - 70k Coe 25.5k - 74k <- would potential buyers be keen or put off? This leaves hyundai and kia (mazda 3 no more). Their prices remained despite coe increase (kia just upped 1k though), probably due to avante vs cerato competiton. Cny - dont quite agree as it does not apply to all ADs. I think it is more hyundai and kia again which has the cny effect. Backlogs - look at nov 2nd bidding. There were supposed to be backlogs from 1st bidding (cars@expo) but coe dropped from 28k to 25k. So overall, with 3 weeks gap and what i guess is less new bookings for toyota, honda and mazda but more bookings for hyundai and kia, coe remains about the same - 25k to 26k. Of course i could be very wrong and 3 weeks just causes it to go even higher. As for jan 2nd bidding, it depends on how ADs price their motorshow promo. Life is tough Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear December 29, 2018 Share December 29, 2018 Ok i guess Jan 1st bidding 26k Jan 2nd bidding 25k Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpmanz 5th Gear December 29, 2018 Share December 29, 2018 With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly.Then those ADs SEs at motor show can jiak hong already. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ct3833 Supersonic December 30, 2018 Share December 30, 2018 Don't be so serious. Treat it as a guessing game for the fun of it if you are not vested. I'm likely to renew COE in end Feb or end March depending on the movement, so I'm vested. Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iiiusion 2nd Gear December 30, 2018 Share December 30, 2018 Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk. Just renew the Dec one in Jun-July if it is reasonable enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
awhtc 6th Gear December 30, 2018 Share December 30, 2018 Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk.I still keep the option of renewing based on Jan if Feb shoots up unexpectedly. However, my take is Jan to Apr are likely to be similar. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ct3833 Supersonic December 30, 2018 Share December 30, 2018 Just renew the Dec one in Jun-July if it is reasonable enough.Thanks . I have the same thought too. Likely to renew one and refresh one to another B&B car. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
assiak71 2nd Gear January 2, 2019 Share January 2, 2019 How was sales last 2 weekends and christmas and new year? 1 more weekend coming up. Expecting coe to increase? This round is interesting because it is 3 weeks gap and 1 day before motorshow. In history has there ever been such a scenario for reference? Will there be more buyers in jan due to a lower quota in feb-apr (roughly 1710 per round vs 1816 now)? Will the avante effect be back to support coe above 25k? No more mazda 3 though, will that negate the avante effect? Lets see lets see Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cordoba8008 Clutched January 2, 2019 Share January 2, 2019 How was sales last 2 weekends and christmas and new year? 1 more weekend coming up. Expecting coe to increase? This round is interesting because it is 3 weeks gap and 1 day before motorshow. In history has there ever been such a scenario for reference? Will there be more buyers in jan due to a lower quota in feb-apr (roughly 1710 per round vs 1816 now)? Will the avante effect be back to support coe above 25k? No more mazda 3 though, will that negate the avante effect? Lets see lets see Went to see the k3, SA say delivery will be March or April. Hyundai is aggressive..... Committed delivery before CNY. Think this will push COE high ba... ↡ Advertisement 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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