COE Bidding – 2nd Round of December 2018

[Mann123]

I agreed on most of your view. But you are still cherry pick on certain year for economy aspect. NPNT. To back up your statement, please provide the year to year graph tread base on coe price vs economy study to determine whether is economy a minor or insignificant factor.

 

 

It can be minor but not insignificant for sure. 

 

However, I strongly feel quota is the main deciding factor due to multi-millionaire people density in Singapore. Look how private property going up even after govt introduce additional 5% ABSD. Because rich can still afford/buy even economy weak + govt additional tax. 

 

Well, this is my understanding as I mentioned in my previous post also and others point of view may differ.  

[assiak71]

Is there coe bidding on the week of 4 feb?

[awhtc]

It can be minor but not insignificant for sure.

 

However, I strongly feel quota is the main deciding factor due to multi-millionaire people density in Singapore. Look how private property going up even after govt introduce additional 5% ABSD. Because rich can still afford/buy even economy weak + govt additional tax.

 

Well, this is my understanding as I mentioned in my previous post also and others point of view may differ.

The cash rich property buyers who earn from enbloc are declining fast. Property sales are quite slow now.

 

Quota (supply) and economy work (demand) hand in hand to determine the market price. My take is prices will be quite flat +/-2k up to mid of next year, which is similar to our stock market index that generally leads economy by about half a year.

[assiak71]

Cat A coe may go up because

- 3 weeks gap

- avante effect (no increase in price although coe went up)

 

Coe may go down or not increase because

- coe just went up

- buyers waiting for motorshow

- ADs wanting to maintain attractive pricing for motorshow

 

So which is it...

[awhtc]

With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly.

[assiak71]

With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly.

From what i see, it is hyundai and kia supporting next round. Kia seems to be suppressing their cerato price due to avante.

 

Toyota and honda prices dont look attractive currently after latest hike. Mazda 3 no more.

 

So what are your predictions for jan 1st bidding?

[awhtc]

From what i see, it is hyundai and kia supporting next round. Kia seems to be suppressing their cerato price due to avante.

 

Toyota and honda prices dont look attractive currently after latest hike. Mazda 3 no more.

 

So what are your predictions for jan 1st bidding?

 

3 weeks break between COE biddings normally means a pent-up demand for COEs.  There is also a backlog of unsuccessful bids in the 2nd bidding of December.  Furthermore, many buyers should be pressing their SEs to bid higher and deliver the car in time for Chinese New Year.  So overall I expect a slight increase.

[assiak71]

3 weeks break between COE biddings normally means a pent-up demand for COEs. There is also a backlog of unsuccessful bids in the 2nd bidding of December. Furthermore, many buyers should be pressing their SEs to bid higher and deliver the car in time for Chinese New Year. So overall I expect a slight increase.

3 weeks - agree, usually increase. But this time prices just increased, and toyota and honda prices are not attractive relative to when coe was 25k. Those who want toyota or honda would have already bought in previous round or wait it out till prices drop 1-2k.

 

E.g. just look at vios E.

Coe 25k - 73k

Coe 23.5k - 70k

Coe 25.5k - 74k <- would potential buyers be keen or put off?

 

This leaves hyundai and kia (mazda 3 no more). Their prices remained despite coe increase (kia just upped 1k though), probably due to avante vs cerato competiton.

 

Cny - dont quite agree as it does not apply to all ADs. I think it is more hyundai and kia again which has the cny effect.

 

Backlogs - look at nov 2nd bidding. There were supposed to be backlogs from 1st bidding (cars@expo) but coe dropped from 28k to 25k.

 

So overall, with 3 weeks gap and what i guess is less new bookings for toyota, honda and mazda but more bookings for hyundai and kia, coe remains about the same - 25k to 26k. Of course i could be very wrong and 3 weeks just causes it to go even higher.

 

As for jan 2nd bidding, it depends on how ADs price their motorshow promo.

Edited December 28, 2018 by assiak71

[awhtc]

Don't be so serious. Treat it as a guessing game for the fun of it if you are not vested.

 

I'm likely to renew COE in end Feb or end March depending on the movement, so I'm vested.

[Scholesy]

3 weeks - agree, usually increase. But this time prices just increased, and toyota and honda prices are not attractive relative to when coe was 25k. Those who want toyota or honda would have already bought in previous round or wait it out till prices drop 1-2k.

 

E.g. just look at vios E.

Coe 25k - 73k

Coe 23.5k - 70k

Coe 25.5k - 74k <- would potential buyers be keen or put off?

 

This leaves hyundai and kia (mazda 3 no more). Their prices remained despite coe increase (kia just upped 1k though), probably due to avante vs cerato competiton.

 

Cny - dont quite agree as it does not apply to all ADs. I think it is more hyundai and kia again which has the cny effect.

 

Backlogs - look at nov 2nd bidding. There were supposed to be backlogs from 1st bidding (cars@expo) but coe dropped from 28k to 25k.

 

So overall, with 3 weeks gap and what i guess is less new bookings for toyota, honda and mazda but more bookings for hyundai and kia, coe remains about the same - 25k to 26k. Of course i could be very wrong and 3 weeks just causes it to go even higher.

 

As for jan 2nd bidding, it depends on how ADs price their motorshow promo.

Life is tough

[assiak71]

Ok i guess

Jan 1st bidding 26k

Jan 2nd bidding 25k

[Jumpmanz]

With 3 weeks, Cat A could go up slightly.

Then those ADs SEs at motor show can jiak hong already.

[Ct3833]

Don't be so serious. Treat it as a guessing game for the fun of it if you are not vested.

 

I'm likely to renew COE in end Feb or end March depending on the movement, so I'm vested.

Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk.

[Iiiusion]

Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk.

 

Just renew the Dec one in Jun-July if it is reasonable enough.

[awhtc]

Feb and March you are damn safe. I have one in Jul and one in Dec. Dec one is quite at risk.

I still keep the option of renewing based on Jan if Feb shoots up unexpectedly. However, my take is Jan to Apr are likely to be similar.

[Ct3833]

Just renew the Dec one in Jun-July if it is reasonable enough.

Thanks . I have the same thought too. Likely to renew one and refresh one to another B&B car.

[assiak71]

How was sales last 2 weekends and christmas and new year? 1 more weekend coming up. Expecting coe to increase? This round is interesting because it is 3 weeks gap and 1 day before motorshow. In history has there ever been such a scenario for reference?

 

Will there be more buyers in jan due to a lower quota in feb-apr (roughly 1710 per round vs 1816 now)?

 

Will the avante effect be back to support coe above 25k? No more mazda 3 though, will that negate the avante effect?

 

Lets see lets see

[Cordoba8008]

How was sales last 2 weekends and christmas and new year? 1 more weekend coming up. Expecting coe to increase? This round is interesting because it is 3 weeks gap and 1 day before motorshow. In history has there ever been such a scenario for reference?

 

Will there be more buyers in jan due to a lower quota in feb-apr (roughly 1710 per round vs 1816 now)?

 

Will the avante effect be back to support coe above 25k? No more mazda 3 though, will that negate the avante effect?

 

Lets see lets see

Went to see the k3, SA say delivery will be March or April.

Hyundai is aggressive..... Committed delivery before CNY.

Think this will push COE high ba...