Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

[Showster]

Ok are you guys going to trust ura or nus or errr srx....

 

Nus

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/webapp/srpi/SRPI_Main.aspx

 

I mean post once can lah... but u keep posting from srx which says a completely different picture from nus and ura... it is doing a disservice to people here.

 

If u want to post, I mean post from sources like ura or nus who are objective in their methods. They don't have vested interests. U can read how nus crafted their index which is pretty good.

 

Here is srx methodology.... seriously go and look at the three indexes and the srx looks totally different. They admit they use private information to calculate their index.... duh.... common....

 

sorry for the rant here but people keep posting this srx index....

 

From srx website methodology white paper

SPI differs from other Singapore indices in four distinct ways:

(i) SPI is the first index to calculate price changes that take into account unique Singaporean factors such as the property's distance to a top primary school or an MRT station. The index, of course, controls for standard index factors like location,

age of property, size, floor levels and land tenure;

(ii) SPI uses a Hedonic Regression methodology modeled on proven real estate

economics and consumer price indices worldwide;

(iii) SPI employs unique data available only to SRX. As a result, for private sale

transactions, the indices include both public caveated transactions and non- caveated transactions, resulting in a comprehensive view of the property market at any point in time;

(iv) Due to its industry-wide integration with the market's major estate agencies StreetSine, on behalf of SRX, collects, processes, integrates and crunches data in real-time. Hence, StreetSine can calculate and release monthly SPI updates before other Singaporean indices.

NUS SRPI index also trending flat for Dec to Jan. For some segments it is also going up for a couple of months IIRC.

 

We wait for URA official index to be out for Q1 2017 since you have such disbelief.

 

But saying that URA has no vested interests in PPI is like saying that LTA has no interests in COE levels...

Ok this is a little of topic...

 

The internet has a lot of misinformation ... it is easy to say just ignore it and move on... but at the end of the day objective indexes like nus property index get drowned by noise like srx index. On Google, if I search Singapore property index, the first hit I get is srx. I don't even see nus index on the first page... nus which don't get paid for their index does not promote it but I am sure srx promotes their index a lot.

 

Which is really sad I think. Are we just going to move on with this? Common, although we argue or discuss politely property prices here, I think it is good if we present reliable and accurate information and data for all to judge. Not just keep flooding info from srx

SRX is also published by our papers. There is a fair degree of accuracy if you trace their index versus PPI.

 

In fact, IIRC it registered a price fall in 2013 faster and earlier than URA index. It puzzled some observers then too.

 

But needs to verify and check to confirm this.

[Wind30]

NUS SRPI index also trending flat for Dec to Jan. For some segments it is also going up for a couple of months IIRC.

 

We wait for URA official index to be out for Q1 2017 since you have such disbelief.

 

But saying that URA has no vested interests in PPI is like saying that LTA has no interests in COE levels...

SRX is also published by our papers. There is a fair degree of accuracy if you trace their index versus PPI.

 

In fact, IIRC it registered a price fall in 2013 faster and earlier than URA index. It puzzled some observers then too.

 

But needs to verify and check to confirm this.

.... u are argueing ura data vs srx? Do you know who srx is? Sigh... now I know why some people give up.... common nus / ura vs srx. Whose data u should use? How can u even argue over such a point. I mean srx is an index done by property agents using their own PRIVATE data. How can u even argue it is accurate or objective.

 

Previously I thought they have different interpretation of data vs ura or nus. But after repeatedly seeing data posted here saying property prices has been going up since october, which conflicts with what I am looking at on the ground, I decided to actually read their methodology. They actually use a different dataset from ura or nus.... duh... I mean seriously?

 

About Singapore Real Estate Exchange - SRX

 

The Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) is an electronic network powered by StreetSine Technology. Estate Agencies and salespersons go to SRX to conduct real estate transactions.

 

StreetSine and market leaders PropNex, HSR, DWG, and OrangeTee opened the Exchange on 15 July 2011 as part of a coordinated industry effort to increase efficiency, productivity, and pricing transparency in the market. SRX quickly expanded its Member Companies to most of the market, including ERA, C&H, ECG, DTZ, Huttons, Savills, and ReMax.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Wind30

[Showster]

.... u are argueing ura data vs srx? Do you know who srx is? Sigh... now I know why some people give up.... common nus / ura vs srx. Whose data u should use? How can u even argue over such a point. I mean srx is an index done by property agents using their own PRIVATE data. How can u even argue it is accurate or objective.

 

Previously I thought they have different interpretation of data vs ura or nus. But after repeatedly seeing data posted here saying property prices has been going up since october, which conflicts with what I am looking at on the ground, I decided to actually read their methodology. They actually use a different dataset from ura or nus.... duh... I mean seriously?

 

About Singapore Real Estate Exchange - SRX

 

The Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) is an electronic network powered by StreetSine Technology. Estate Agencies and salespersons go to SRX to conduct real estate transactions.

 

StreetSine and market leaders PropNex, HSR, DWG, and OrangeTee opened the Exchange on 15 July 2011 as part of a coordinated industry effort to increase efficiency, productivity, and pricing transparency in the market. SRX quickly expanded its Member Companies to most of the market, including ERA, C&H, ECG, DTZ, Huttons, Savills, and ReMax.

I only trust my own judgement.

 

Indices are just for reference. I am just surprised why nobody raise the issue with index being inaccurate during periods of lower prices.

 

All data must be based on real caveats for credibility. It wouldn't have survived so long and be published if there is fake data used. The methodology must be sound, and can be verified with URA data (highly transparent).

 

You can go and check the indices. URA index registered actual index drop in Jan 2014 but this was registered in SRX in Oct 2013.

 

Anyway not my basar since I am neither buying nor selling. Good luck arguing about indices accuracy.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Showster

[Mercs]

Rentals very very competitive in D15.

 

This Marine Blue they have been selling for a long time, marketing strategy

 

But price not cheap at all

Soft launch in Jan 2015 with 38 units sold, only officially launching this weekend with no change in prices. Should be due to recent CM tweaks?

And yes 1700psf not cheap at all, but FH and near upcoming MP mrt.

 

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/capitaland-officially-launching-marine-parade-condo

 

CAPITALAND is officially launching a residential project in Marine Parade this Saturday at an average of S$1,700 per sq ft (psf), more than two years after its soft launch in January 2015. A total of 38 units have been sold as of last month. The official launch of the 124-unit Marine Blue comes after the government's move last Friday to ease property market cooling measures that have been in place since 2013.

 

CapitaLand chief executive Wen Khai Meng said on Monday that the freehold project's pricing has remained unchanged from its soft launch.

[Mercs]

Ok this is a little of topic...

 

The internet has a lot of misinformation ... it is easy to say just ignore it and move on... but at the end of the day objective indexes like nus property index get drowned by noise like srx index. On Google, if I search Singapore property index, the first hit I get is srx. I don't even see nus index on the first page... nus which don't get paid for their index does not promote it but I am sure srx promotes their index a lot.

 

Which is really sad I think. Are we just going to move on with this? Common, although we argue or discuss politely property prices here, I think it is good if we present reliable and accurate information and data for all to judge. Not just keep flooding info from srx

I dun make up the news/data/articles are from various newspaper/property websites, not just srx.

So if you think certain data/article/info are just a load of crap, by all means, your prerogative.

But should I stop posting them just cos you say so that it's a bad source of info? Dun think so.

I'm not here to cater to anyone's likes or dislikes in terms of info source. How reliable/accurate, do exercise due diligence.

 

I like your attitude, we discuss POLITELY (not argue) and it's mutual.

So we just move on and leave it as that, you have a good day ahead.

[Invigorated]

Ok are you guys going to trust ura or nus or errr srx....

 

Nus

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/webapp/srpi/SRPI_Main.aspx

 

I mean post once can lah... but u keep posting from srx which says a completely different picture from nus and ura... it is doing a disservice to people here.

 

If u want to post, I mean post from sources like ura or nus who are objective in their methods. They don't have vested interests. U can read how nus crafted their index which is pretty good.

 

Here is srx methodology.... seriously go and look at the three indexes and the srx looks totally different. They admit they use private information to calculate their index.... duh.... common....

 

sorry for the rant here but people keep posting this srx index....

 

From srx website methodology white paper

SPI differs from other Singapore indices in four distinct ways:

(i) SPI is the first index to calculate price changes that take into account unique Singaporean factors such as the property's distance to a top primary school or an MRT station. The index, of course, controls for standard index factors like location,

age of property, size, floor levels and land tenure;

(ii) SPI uses a Hedonic Regression methodology modeled on proven real estate

economics and consumer price indices worldwide;

(iii) SPI employs unique data available only to SRX. As a result, for private sale

transactions, the indices include both public caveated transactions and non- caveated transactions, resulting in a comprehensive view of the property market at any point in time;

(iv) Due to its industry-wide integration with the market's major estate agencies StreetSine, on behalf of SRX, collects, processes, integrates and crunches data in real-time. Hence, StreetSine can calculate and release monthly SPI updates before other Singaporean indices.

Perhaps you have to justify the part on `completely different picture`.

 

I actually followed your link to nus spi and the charts, which are chartered quarterly instead of the monthly one by srx, and found them to be largely in line. I won't dare say completely different. Slight difference, yes, due to difference calculation methods but the trend lines are similar.

 

Look at the similar turning points in November and December 2016 on the srx and nus srpi charts (blue line representing overall market)

Edited March 16, 2017 by Invigorated

[Sdf4786k]

Soft launch in Jan 2015 with 38 units sold, only officially launching this weekend with no change in prices. Should be due to recent CM tweaks?

And yes 1700psf not cheap at all, but FH and near upcoming MP mrt.

 

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/capitaland-officially-launching-marine-parade-condo

 

 

The real test is of course thinking with our own pocket.

 

If after doing all the check and balance, 1X00 psf has a upside potential OR still relatively under price base on individual "sane" rational, I think the project will sell.

 

But like all things, when you go to the showroom and its like a wet market where every few moment, the unit you eyeing is being scoop up, I doubt many will remain rational and throw caution to the wind.

 

When you see it being snap up, the first thing that cross your mind is MTL. Mai Tu liao, the more you wait, the unit gone, you may need o buy the next more expensive unit or go with a smaller unit to be affordable. Then you kick yourself for not being trigger happy.

 

Of course there are cases where after a second look, it does not seem to be a good buy. Large aircon ledge. Big balcony. Wrong orientation and then you have sympathy for the buyer because 1X00 may no longer be the number you be considering.

 

This is not to say this is the scenario for Blue marine. 

 

This is just quoting an example to prevent buyer remorse.

[Icedbs]

.... u are argueing ura data vs srx? Do you know who srx is? Sigh... now I know why some people give up.... common nus / ura vs srx. Whose data u should use? How can u even argue over such a point. I mean srx is an index done by property agents using their own PRIVATE data. How can u even argue it is accurate or objective.

 

 

Correction, it is not done by property agents. It is done by StreetSine, a subsidiary of SPH.  StreetSine uses transacted data from property agencies to derived the index. The agencies have no part in developing the index, they only provide transacted data.

 

Which tells you that the SRX index is faster than the URA index because they got information real time.  Which one is more accurate, well, that's is like asking if Dow Jones Index is more accurate or S&P 500 is more accurate when assessing US stock market!

 

I do not see any reason why StreetSine would derive an index that is not accurate. Property agencies make money whether the market is up or down so there is little basis to believe why the index is tweaked to favor the agencies. Infact, the agencies make more money when the market is down over the last few years (go check the top 4 agency revenue).

Edited March 16, 2017 by Icedbs

[Showster]

Where was the hand with branded watch when you needed one?

 

This is new sales data, huge increase in transactions with about 80% from existing developments (not new launches). And 13xx psf for so called outskirts, large and small size, some distance from MRT...

 

This data surely cannot be faked? If want to wait for URA data to confirm by all means...

Edited March 16, 2017 by Showster

[Icedbs]

Where was the hand with branded watch when you needed one?

 

This is new sales data, huge increase in transactions with about 80% from existing developments (not new launches). And 13xx psf for so called outskirts, large and small size, some distance from MRT...

 

This data surely cannot be faked? If want to wait for URA data to confirm by all means...

 

Year on year for Feb had seen a 222% jump in private residential developer sales

 

I have a pdf on all these research given to me monthly. Those who are keen to receive, PM me with your email address and I will send to you whenever I get it.

[Mercs]

The real test is of course thinking with our own pocket.

 

If after doing all the check and balance, 1X00 psf has a upside potential OR still relatively under price base on individual "sane" rational, I think the project will sell.

 

But like all things, when you go to the showroom and its like a wet market where every few moment, the unit you eyeing is being scoop up, I doubt many will remain rational and throw caution to the wind.

 

When you see it being snap up, the first thing that cross your mind is MTL. Mai Tu liao, the more you wait, the unit gone, you may need o buy the next more expensive unit or go with a smaller unit to be affordable. Then you kick yourself for not being trigger happy.

 

Of course there are cases where after a second look, it does not seem to be a good buy. Large aircon ledge. Big balcony. Wrong orientation and then you have sympathy for the buyer because 1X00 may no longer be the number you be considering.

 

This is not to say this is the scenario for Blue marine.

 

This is just quoting an example to prevent buyer remorse.

When you consider that current new launch/near mrt/99LH going for 1300psf(big units) to 1500psf (small units) range, this being FH and (most units with a view of the sea (from article), suddenly, dun seem like a really bad deal.

 

That said, current market, no hurry, still lots of choices. A check at PropGuru, some units going for only 10xx psf? How true, dunno.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/20582114/for-sale-marine-blue

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/20570814/for-sale-marine-blue

 

So yes, for those keen, do homework to prevent buyer remorse. Good thing is already TOP, can see/touch/feel the unit of choice and surroundings.

Personally for me, 1700psf is HIGH. But if really around 10xxpsf for a brand new, FH unit, with seaview, near mrt, in MP, then I say ... good deal?

[Newbie26]

Well said.  reminder & post.

 

Also to add that for investment, look at existing and potential competitors for your unit.

 

Even in the best locations, if the existing and new unseen future competitions are fierce, buyers remorse  may come after TOP

 

Just seen a unit, A1 locale with every Ms (MRT, market, mall etc etc), owner wanted to cash out at a loss because rental competition too stiff and more competitors coming onboard.

 

another example, in 2010, units at glyndebourne at D11 had to be balloted bec so very hot, stevens MRT site nearby announced. This was immediate post 2009 not even during 2013 peak time. Last year, a 2 room unit was sold at around 500k loss. Next to MRT in prime, few bustops to orchard road, a 2 roomer, almost new. rentals for the condo not as good as expected. There are other sales asking for lower than buying price.

 

The real test is of course thinking with our own pocket.

 

If after doing all the check and balance, 1X00 psf has a upside potential OR still relatively under price base on individual "sane" rational, I think the project will sell.

 

But like all things, when you go to the showroom and its like a wet market where every few moment, the unit you eyeing is being scoop up, I doubt many will remain rational and throw caution to the wind.

 

When you see it being snap up, the first thing that cross your mind is MTL. Mai Tu liao, the more you wait, the unit gone, you may need o buy the next more expensive unit or go with a smaller unit to be affordable. Then you kick yourself for not being trigger happy.

 

Of course there are cases where after a second look, it does not seem to be a good buy. Large aircon ledge. Big balcony. Wrong orientation and then you have sympathy for the buyer because 1X00 may no longer be the number you be considering.

 

This is not to say this is the scenario for Blue marine. 

 

This is just quoting an example to prevent buyer remorse.

 

[Invigorated]

Correction, it is not done by property agents. It is done by StreetSine, a subsidiary of SPH. StreetSine uses transacted data from property agencies to derived the index. The agencies have no part in developing the index, they only provide transacted data.

 

Which tells you that the SRX index is faster than the URA index because they got information real time. Which one is more accurate, well, that's is like asking if Dow Jones Index is more accurate or S&P 500 is more accurate when assessing US stock market!

 

I do not see any reason why StreetSine would derive an index that is not accurate. Property agencies make money whether the market is up or down so there is little basis to believe why the index is tweaked to favor the agencies. Infact, the agencies make more money when the market is down over the last few years (go check the top 4 agency revenue).

This is very informative, thanks.

[Showster]

Likely real but the space computation may be different from expectations. 1+S unit for 1550 sqft?

 

When you consider that current new launch/near mrt/99LH going for 1300psf(big units) to 1500psf (small units) range, this being FH and (most units with a view of the sea (from article), suddenly, dun seem like a really bad deal.

 

That said, current market, no hurry, still lots of choices. A check at PropGuru, some units going for only 10xx psf? How true, dunno.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/20582114/for-sale-marine-blue

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/20570814/for-sale-marine-blue

 

So yes, for those keen, do homework to prevent buyer remorse. Good thing is already TOP, can see/touch/feel the unit of choice and surroundings.

Personally for me, 1700psf is HIGH. But if really around 10xxpsf for a brand new, FH unit, with seaview, near mrt, in MP, then I say ... good deal?

[Wyfitms]

This is very informative, thanks.

Yep, bro icedbs may be an agent but certainly no bs agent talk

[Wind30]

Yep, bro icedbs may be an agent but certainly no bs agent talk

Exactly....

 

Frankly, I think it's kind of pointless. It's up to each of us to decide anyway, at the end of the day it's our money.

 

If u rather place your faith on an information portal fed by Property Agents with zero oversight, it's up to u. Although I am in industry not academia, I publish papers and the basic requirement is your method must be repeatable and data can be verified independently. If one chooses to place his trust on a closed system with private data fed by property agents, its up to you.

 

I rather put my trust on ura and nus indexes. Btw, the nus index is publish monthly similar to srx.

 

Nus says a flat market for the past four months while srx says otherwise growing every month for four months.

 

Nus says peak at 163.5 now at 140.9 a 14% drop, srx says peak at 178.4 now at 166.1 a 7% drop.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Wind30

[Wind30]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/fed-raises-rates-at-march-meeting.html

 

Next hike in June? At least not too far away. No need to wait too Long.

[Showster]

Yeah since you have been so patient all along, what's a few months or years more? :)

 

Hike it? I say heck it unless it's a 2.5% increase till beyond CPF RA rates (4.0%) then we should worry. Don't forget US debts will also cause implosion way before that scenario.

 

URA index would likely show that you have waited till price rebounded, and the economy started to be also on the path to better growth in 2017 / 2018. Inflation is expected to normalise in this year as well.

 

Now, who were the ones who said that property prices can only grow if the economy is doing well?

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/fed-raises-rates-at-march-meeting.html

Next hike in June? At least not too far away. No need to wait too Long.

 

Edited March 16, 2017 by Showster