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Will the COE bubble burst?

Forte3737

By Forte3737,
in General Car Discussion

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Cars08

Cars08

1st Gear

Almost any estate can have work areas. I don't think there's a need to limit to only a 2nd CBD. Agree

 

Just having one CBD is itself a cause of why people cannot relocate nearer - Just on the west, estates like Tiong Bahru, Redhill, and even Queenstown as so much more expensive than in the outskirts. And this leads on to probably the 2nd biggest problem we have today - Housing is (artificially) inflated because the demand is high around the CBD. - This one may be one of the reasons only...

 

 

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Joseph22

Joseph22

Turbocharged

I'm not so sure. The article assumes that people scrapping their cars won't buy new ones? The "tsunami" of COEs also comes with a great number of people looking to buy a new car?...

if price of COE very high, i think majority of those ppl who buy those car in that period no money to buy new car liao. :ph34r:

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Darryn

Darryn

Turbocharged

I'm not so sure. The article assumes that people scrapping their cars won't buy new ones? The "tsunami" of COEs also comes with a great number of people looking to buy a new car?...

 

No doubt some will, and some will drop out.

 

If the price jumps from less than $20k to more than $40k, a certain number will fall out of the race, letting the price fall a bit.

 

Further, having 6 people competing for 5 COE will lead to a lower price than having 3 people competing for 2 COE.

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Grix17

Grix17

Clutched

I personally dont think it will burst anytime soon. My friend who is a used-car dealer predicted that it MIGHT burst in 2015-2016. So now we can only hope that $1 COE will happen again.

 

Consider that every bidding cycle will have a fairly large number of backlog of orders which failed previously.

It might just accumulate such that the demand will forever outstrip supply.

 

So while the used-car dealers might theoretically be correct due to the large number of cars registered in 2005-2006 (and must be scrapped = more COEs), the price is already so high (at the moment) that there will hardly be anymore large fluctuations or drops.

 

It's not going to crash like the stock market. There will always be a larger demand than supply unless there really is an economic depression.

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Baphomet

Baphomet

3rd Gear

if price of COE very high, i think majority of those ppl who buy those car in that period no money to buy new car liao. :ph34r:

 

sorry..i don't get you. can elaborate a bit? [:)]

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Grix17

Grix17

Clutched

Based on this the prices should start easing next year.

 

http://motoring.asiaone.com/print/Motoring...914-299419.html

 

This article is pretty old (Sep 2011).

 

This gave people hope that they could keep their cars until 2014-2016 then change. With that mentality, there will still be a surge in demand when there are actually more COEs. I think the government will not want a repeat of the low COE price again. They will continue to reduce the number of COEs.

 

A car salesman told me that the trend of public transport development is likely to work with the reduction of COEs such that cars will really become luxury goods, not just in the economic sense. Ultimately, only the rich can afford cars. The rest of us will have to do with MRT + bus if the COE reaches 6-figure values and stays there.

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13177

13177

Hypersonic

sorry..i don't get you. can elaborate a bit? [:)]

Could be mean that those people who bought their cars during the low COE, due to the low COE price and not because they could afford to buy a car. So when their car due to scrap in 10 years, they migt not have the money to buy another car if the COE during that time is still as high as currently or even higher.

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Grix17

Grix17

Clutched

Stop idiots driving company goods vehicles home.

 

Simply by not letting them buy season parking..

 

Frankly, to help reduce congestion further, we should reduce season parking fees (maybe free - just need to apply) as well as increase ERP and CBD parking rates.

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Joseph22

Joseph22

Turbocharged

sorry..i don't get you. can elaborate a bit? [:)]

say take 2007/8 for example when COE is around 2~5K

 

 

lots of ppl stretch themself to buy that 40K CS3 or 30K Picanto or 20K Chery QQ..

if the COE is around 20K or worse 60K. they are likely not able to renew or buy new car liao.

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Baphomet

Baphomet

3rd Gear
(edited)

Could be mean that those people who bought their cars during the low COE, due to the low COE price and not because they could afford to buy a car. So when their car due to scrap in 10 years, they migt not have the money to buy another car if the COE during that time is still as high as currently or even higher.

 

say take 2007/8 for example when COE is around 2~5K

 

 

lots of ppl stretch themself to buy that 40K CS3 or 30K Picanto or 20K Chery QQ..

if the COE is around 20K or worse 60K. they are likely not able to renew or buy new car liao.

 

 

ic.. thanks guys! [:)] If COE 20K? grab liao lor! mai tu liao [:p] in fact below 50K also grab..

 

bought current ride at 2008, COE 13K. looks like borderline ppl like myself have to wait for right opportunity to buy or just switch back to riding. :mellow:

Edited by Baphomet
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Grix17

Grix17

Clutched

say take 2007/8 for example when COE is around 2~5K

 

 

lots of ppl stretch themself to buy that 40K CS3 or 30K Picanto or 20K Chery QQ..

if the COE is around 20K or worse 60K. they are likely not able to renew or buy new car liao.

 

I wonder what's the likelihood of these cars still running to the maximum 10 years and beyond .. and if they can last past 10 years, I also wonder if the same people will keep them 'illegally' without renewing COEs.

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Joseph22

Joseph22

Turbocharged

I wonder what's the likelihood of these cars still running to the maximum 10 years and beyond .. and if they can last past 10 years, I also wonder if the same people will keep them 'illegally' without renewing COEs.

i think a lot with dealer now. Lots of ppl changing csr. Especially those who didny change car in the huat ah era.

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Darryn

Darryn

Turbocharged

I wonder what's the likelihood of these cars still running to the maximum 10 years and beyond .. and if they can last past 10 years, I also wonder if the same people will keep them 'illegally' without renewing COEs.

How do you expect to keep a car "illegally" without renewing COE?

 

 

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Grix17

Grix17

Clutched
(edited)

How do you expect to keep a car "illegally" without renewing COE?

 

I'm sure there are ways, not that I would do that ..

 

If there are uninsured drivers/cars and drivers that don't pay road tax, I'm sure there will be sneaky ways of doing this, especially for off-peak cars.

 

How many LTA officers do we have to catch such people?

Edited by Grix17
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Darryn

Darryn

Turbocharged
(edited)

I'm sure there are ways, not that I would do that ..

 

If there are uninsured drivers/cars and drivers that don't pay road tax, I'm sure there will be sneaky ways of doing this, especially for off-peak cars.

 

How many LTA officers do we have to catch such people?

Well.....

 

Parking will be an issue (HDB carparks cannot),

 

no insurance, no roadtax,

 

And how to "escape" the authorities when they ask you if the car has been deregistered.

 

I don't know the process, but I would be willing to bet dollars to donoughts that there is a process to check on 10 year old cars if the COE is not renewed and they are not exported.

 

How many LTA does not matter, if you are the one to get caught, it would be jail time I think - worth it meh?

 

Edited by Darryn
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