2014 Aug 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[L23]

 

I think you are mistaken about the FT car buying population here

 

when I was bargaining with the SE serving me for further price discounts

 

another AT family booked theirs at 10k above my eventual buy price without any hesitation at the next table

Have you see how the China Chinese buy their property?

They bought them in terms of rows or column one without looking at the price at all while the poor Singaporean keep cross checking the lot price on those lot they want !!

And the poor Singaporean is just buying a small shoe-box unit.

[Lincoln]

 

I'm one who is "anxious" maybe? or not really. I rather say no one know what will happen in future..

 

Many years ago a lot people think $15000 for a piece of COE is very expensive/costly because before that they seen COE which cost only few thousands..

 

And when the COE is few thousands, people also think it is very expensive, because they seen few hundreds a piece before...

 

So, is there a right time to buy a car? I myself also not sure.. But I'm quite sure those cash rich ones (not me) will never exhausted their ammunition... Just check out the new Mercedes C class forum here...

 

some think the 1st Sept Bidding Exercise may come down a bit... maybe...

 

just my personal view

 

I also notice when quota is at 300+ for Cat A for each round... 500+ bid for the COE..

 

When now we have 500+ quota... and there is around 1000+ people bid..

 

So, when those deregistered one are to be reallocate by LTA.. will there be 2000+ people bid for 1000+ quota??

 

hmm...

 

In my humble opinion, yes there is a good time to buy a car in singapore. Historically, it is during the period when supply is highest.

 

All the theories of more demand during more supply just didn't cut it. The demand line in fact never changes (perhaps shift whenever population/salary increases). However, when there are more supplies, price simply falls.

 

 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Lincoln

[Wt_know]

you have grossly underestimated the population of RICH FT in singapore

husband buy car .... wife also buy car to send kid to school and drive to gym only hor .... don't play play

1 rich ft family = smelly smelly 2 cars liao

 

never mind, about 1/3 of 6.9 million population are FTs, they are not so fool to buy Singapore car which 1/3 price can buy the same in their home town

 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Wt_know

[Hybridcar]

 

In my humble opinion, yes there is a good time to buy a car in singapore. Historically, it is during the period when supply is highest.

 

All the theories of more demand during more supply just didn't cut it.

 

Yup, I agree there will be a "good" time as well.

And I personally think if COE can go down by $20k from current price, is already very good

 

Just need to have right time with some luck.. providing AD don't try to be funny..

 

But when supply is still lower than demand.... hmm....

Edited August 21, 2014 by Hybridcar

[Enye]

 

I also notice when quota is at 300+ for Cat A for each round... 500+ bid for the COE..

 

When now we have 500+ quota... and there is around 1000+ people bid..

 

So, when those deregistered one are to be reallocate by LTA.. will there be 2000+ people bid for 1000+ quota??

 

hmm...

 

just remember car owners would need to plan for a replacement ~1 year before

 

the number of available COEs are based on scrapped vehicles now but the replacement demand comes from those owners in the 9th year of ownership or earlier

 

if you look at the chart, the time when prior year's car population is much lower than the following year would be probably 5 to 6 years from now

 

COE premiums may dip as supply increases but not likely to crash unless economic crisis happens which in itself is a much bigger problem than high COE premiums

 

[Hybridcar]

 

just remember car owners would need to plan for a replacement ~1 year before

 

the number of available COEs are based on scrapped vehicles now but the replacement demand comes from those owners in the 9th year of ownership or earlier

 

if you look at the chart, the time when prior year's car population is much lower than the following year would be probably 5 to 6 years from now

 

COE premiums may dip as supply increases but not likely to crash unless economic crisis happens which in itself is a much bigger problem than high COE premiums

 

 

ok.. when economic crisis happens.. then definitely there is dip in demand as well...

 

a lot of people also no mood debate the COE price fall or rise already...

 

I think some existing car owner also hit hard too...

 

I also notice most of my senior in our office and some of my neighbours has replaced their car recently with 6 months to go before scrapped..

 

by the way, there is a slight dip in bid for CAT A last round... seems more buying CAT B car... cash rich group...

Edited August 21, 2014 by Hybridcar

[L23]

 

ok.. when economic crisis happens.. then definitely there is dip in demand as well...

 

a lot of people also no mood debate the COE price fall or rise already...

 

I think some existing car owner also hit hard too...

No need to wait too long for that to happen..

Many will get hit when the rate start to rise next year...

[Hybridcar]

No need to wait too long for that to happen..

Many will get hit when the rate start to rise next year...

 

Lol... where government give (Pioneer Generation package), they will find somewhere to recover back ..

Edited August 21, 2014 by Hybridcar

[Enye]

 

ok.. when economic crisis happens.. then definitely there is dip in demand as well...

 

a lot of people also no mood debate the COE price fall or rise already...

 

I think some existing car owner also hit hard too...

 

I also notice most of my senior in our office and some of my neighbours has replaced their car recently with 6 months to go before scrapped..

 

by the way, there is a slight dip in bid for CAT A last round... seems more buying CAT B car... cash rich group...

 

btw don't read so much into my opinions since i belong to the committed to purchase group liao

 

i may be forced to eat my words later when COE premiums really crash in next 2 years

 

[Ryu]

I also hope that when the bumper crop of COE appears in the near future, as many have been predicting, COE prices will drop due to increase in supply. But I am skeptical if this increase in supply is enough to satisfy the demand.

 

Right now even at such high COE prices and slight increase in supply, demand continues to be higher (about x2) than supply. I'm sure many are also waiting on the sidelines like me for COE prices to fall.

 

Hence, like me, many will also add into the demand when the bumper crop arrives.

[Hybridcar]

 

btw don't read so much into my opinions since i belong to the committed to purchase group liao

 

i may be forced to eat my words later when COE premiums really crash in next 2 years

 

 

 

bro... I also committed liao...

 

I have been waiting for a year already...

 

later I forced to eat my sentences... missing from MCF...

[Enye]

 

 

bro... I also committed liao...

 

I have been waiting for a year already...

 

later I forced to eat my sentences... missing from MCF...

 

congrats

 

when take delivery of your hybrid?

[Hybridcar]

 

congrats

 

when take delivery of your hybrid?

 

1 year ago hoping for hybrid... now no more... no choice but continue to use the nick.. lol

 

waiting for my "kimchi" somewhere around Sept/Oct period.. :)

 

not many people buying this "kimchi".. so I think AD die die must get some volume moved... hehe..

 

Hint: this make is not even in top 10 in sales chart... you know what make already right? hehe

 

And hor... do support the advert below... haha

Edited August 21, 2014 by Hybridcar

[Ahseng]

Can analyse till gao gao, numbers calculate swee swee. But i study only little bit, my take is COE will not come down. people will eventually take 60k as norm, then uptrend again.

 

As some bros say, SG ppl really is rich, the numbers of rich ppl probably beyond yours or mine assumption.

 

Buy when u need to change. can't time the market one.

[Baal]

never mind, about 1/3 of 6.9 million population are FTs, they are not so fool to buy Singapore car which 1/3 price can buy the same in their home town

Agree. But those husband & wife combine 7-8k type may bit at 40k level. Shitizens almost cfm no.

even if LTA reserved some (eg. 15%) for dry season, there will still b plenty of COE to b recycled soon.

if u look closely to the mthly figures in the link below, the current dereg of 2400-2700 per mth shld increase to 4000-5000 in abt 6 mths' time.

by then, the COE Premium remains high or not will depend v much on the number of willing buyers with plenty of cash.

Source: M01-03M-Age.pdf

Thanks for taking all the trouble thus far.

[Hybridcar]

Can analyse till gao gao, numbers calculate swee swee. But i study only little bit, my take is COE will not come down. people will eventually take 60k as norm, then uptrend again.

 

As some bros say, SG ppl really is rich, the numbers of rich ppl probably beyond yours or mine assumption.

 

Buy when u need to change. can't time the market one.

Don't forget the Rich FT bro mention earlier :)

[Dinobros]

I am in that group of 8-9 years old car.

We will only see the real drop in 2 years and hopefully the demand is lower than the supply.

 

even if LTA reserved some (eg. 15%) for dry season, there will still b plenty of COE to b recycled soon.

if u look closely to the mthly figures in the link below, the current dereg of 2400-2700 per mth shld increase to 4000-5000 in abt 6 mths' time.

by then, the COE Premium remains high or not will depend v much on the number of willing buyers with plenty of cash.

Source: M01-03M-Age.pdf

 

[Mcist]

Would next round of COE drop due to the news report?

The number of cars deregistered last month was the highest in recent years, based on the latest official data.

This, according to industry watchers, is a sure sign that the next certificate of entitlement(COE) quota (November to January) will be a sizeable one - estimated to be double the supply last Christmas.

COE quotas are determined largely by the number of vehicles scrapped in the preceding three-month period.

Last month, 2,724 cars were deregistered - the highest monthly figure in over three years.

Figures for the following few months are likely to be similar, if not higher.

This is because cars bought between 2004 and 2008 - when the most number of COEs were available - are reaching the end of their 10-year lifespan.

SIM University urban transport management expert Park Byung Joon said "it is reasonable to expect the deregistration figure to continue rising until 2018".

And that would "definitely lead to a long-term downward trend" for COE premiums.

He ventured that premiums for cars will dip below $60,000 next year, and "as low as $45,000" in the next three years or so.

COEs for cars are currently in the mid- to high $60,000s.

Dr Park said prices are unlikely to return to the previous lows witnessed in 2006 and 2007, when they fell below $20,000.

"It is not just because Singapore has (a bigger) population now. More importantly, Singapore has more money now."

The imminent deluge of deregistrations poses one challenge though - providing sufficient facilities to store deregistered cars before they are re-exported to countries where second-hand vehicles are in demand.

The number of export processing zones (EPZs), which are gated to ensure deregistered cars are not used on Singapore roads while awaiting re-export, has dwindled from a high of 12 to only two.

The slowdown in deregistrations after 2008 forced many players to close down.

The Straits Times understands that the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is nudging motor companies to start up more EPZs - something which it did during the last deregistration boom.

But companies are cautious, recalling the roller-coaster nature of the business.

Mr Neo Nam Heng, president of the Automobile Importer and Exporter Association, said: "In 2003, land rental was three times less than what it is today.

"We've proposed to the LTA to reduce some of the requirements for operating an EPZ."

For instance, one suggestion is to have the minimum capacity of 400 cars halved to 200.

An LTA spokesman said the authority is considering some feedback it received during a regular meeting with the industry.

Korean... Dr study Singapore's bs COE trend ? haha...

These ppl should be studying things that can or will help the mankind rather the

money minded gov created to indirectly squeeze $$$ from its ppl